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No I was talking Champion Hurdles. If he ran like he did in his last race he wouldn’t be placed. But I take your point that he has run to form in the interim (on occasion not).
A lot of this has been covered in previous threads, but since we’re bandying opinions – why not?
If Istabraq turns up on the day, he will be easy to back, and I expect odds of 3/1 or bigger to be available.  There are a number of fearless rails layers who will take their chances, and with good reason.  Apart from his well documented arthritis, he is becoming increasingly difficult to train for temperamental reasons, and his fluency at his hurdles has been lacking for some time.
I’m not making claims about him not winning (God forbid!), but he will be opposed by the real layers.
burst or no burst, he hasnt bled for three races, that is if he bled at christmas last year,. he didnt bleed when he had to struggle to beat bust out. Limestone lad and first gold are proof that really there is no point backing horses ante post without factoring in the chance that they mightnt turn up. Why have ballydoyle not said anything about his injury or affliction. They arent exactly tom tate when dealing with the press. Could it be that if istabraq does get to the races at the top of his game, JP would relish the 3/1 that those brave layers would gave him.
I wouldnt like my fancy humping 12 stone in a competitive handicap on saturdays forecasted ground. But then again, IM no martin pipe.<br>
He has not been put under undue pressure in these races and has run well below what is required for a Champion Hurdle. However, he will be put under pressure in the Champion.
It is also worth pointing out that only two 10-y-os have ever won this race in its 75-year history Hatton’s Grace and Sea Pigeon. They both won the race at eleven also and are the only horses of this age to do so. These two apart from being brilliant were late-maturing.
Istabraq has won it in his prime years 6, 7 and 8. It is asking too much for him to do it now, especially in view of his problems and especially as this is probably his toughest assignment anyway.
sorry steve, i respect your opinions on a lot of horse racing issue, but you are talking utter crap about sea pigeon being late maturing – a horse that faously ran in the derby at 3 and finished second twice to monksfield before winning the champion hurdle at the age on ten
I take your point – I mean they were capable of performing at top-level at this age since they are from late-maturing families. Not that Istabraq isn’t, but he is showing distinct signs of wear and tear, whereas they both were never better at this age, Whereas Istabraq hasn’t bettered his performance in the Champion two years ago.
Fair enough Steve, but istabraq hasnt had the same amount of racing as a normal ten year old. A conscoiuos plan put in place three years ago. He is unlucky not to be going for his fifth champion. Istabraq improved about a stone for his run in the leopardstwn christmas hurdle last year. The question that needs to be answered is can he improve that again from this years renewal and is it enough. I dont think the opposition is stronger, and istabraq has never had to be tuned up to concert pitch since March ’00.
I sincerely hope you are right. But he would be flying in the face of a host of given no-no’s to succeed this year. It is looking a mountain he has to climb and he should not be favourite in my opinion.
<br>mh<br>balydoyle is certainly not a tom tate. tom tate sole ability as a trainer is his relationship to the dickensons without that he would be a stable lad
if i recall sea pigeon won as a two year old ridden by l piggot trained by j tree
Istabraq has apparently been well backed today. He is in to 7/4 with Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. There is still 2/1 available.
I reckon 2/1 is a great price. There is no way he will be anything like those odds if he lines up on the day. The price now is based on the fear that they may not run him.
I know his one run this season wasn’t very impressive but he was hardly 100% fit for it. I know he fell twice last year. I know he is now 10 – old for a Champion hurdler. But if he is fit (and we can trust Aidan O’Brien on that one) and he has retained anything like the ability he has shown in past Champion hurdles then against the opposition he is likely to face 2/1 is a mad price.
I am looking forward to roaring him home again on March 12th.
Chief
2/1 is probably very tempting if you value Istabraq’s recent form/record. howeevr one thing …. I wont have this "he was unfit" statement constantly made in his defence.
No way was he cherry ripe (granted) for his first run, however how can people speak glowingly about how he is cared for by Ballydoyle on one hand, and then be prepared to accept that he comes to the track signifantly unfit… you can’t have it both ways.
The one noticeable thing about this year was that connections stated beforehand that he was straighter than he was the previous season (which appeared to be the case in the paddock).
Nobody surely believes that connections would bring this horse as short of peak fitness as they obviously did when he fell at Leopardtown a year (and a bit) ago
So for him to run as he did, surely is cause for some concern, as must be the comments about his well being, which to some extent Charlie Swan’s confirmed on Irish Champion day, when he stated that the horse hadnt been ridden or schooled since the race in December.
I have absolutely no doubt that he’ll be back significantly between now and the Festival; his popularity/Patriotism is guaranteed to make him a short price … this though doesnt change the evidence on which any punter should be judging him.
Promised I wont get into these "Istabraq" debates till after the race or at least closer to the race but I really had to!!! Eleven days in the box and then did a gallop????!!!!!! Surely even someone who has no knowledge of horses at all can use their common sense on that one??<br> Like Aidan O’Brien has been saying(pretty sure he’s getting fed up of it at this stage) the horse has been trotting and more recently canter for the last few weeks.He has come out and completely denied the arthritis story……………..he stated that if there was ever anything wrong with the horse he would tell as Ballydoyle did so brilliantly with the nose bleed the night before the champion.<br> Surprised some are saying that if he gets there on the day he will be easy to back?I suspect the exact opposite…………….if he gets there on the day it’ll be a major tip in itself surely?They aint going to send him to Cheltenham to be humiliated but I assure you he will be there on the day.Also I expect him to have a racecourse gallop before hand…..maybe at Leopardstown in a few weeks. I note most comment on William Hill shorting the horse to 7/4 from 9/4,I however find it much more interesting the 6/4 from 2’s by Paddy Power.
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