Forum Replies Created
- Posts
‘We’ = The Team.
All of the team insist Enable is getting beaten here.
Guaranteed final ‘True’ Arc book:
SOFT LIGHT 10/11
JAPAN 5/4
GHAIYYATH 6/1
NEGANO GOLD 16/1
ENABLE 100/1
1000/1 BARDettori is using an oar instead of a whip for when he starts paddling at the 3 pole.
Surely Gosden/Abdullah would be declaring Enable a non runner under normal circumstances in these conditions.
Could be more runners pulled up here than in the Gold Cup. Conditions are absolutely barbaric and fast declining.
1/10 fav – Dettori announces that he is to retire at the end of the season
In the unlikely event of Enable winning then I think Dettori will definitely announce his plans to retire straight after the race.
He may keep the news for another day if she gets beat as we expect her to. Though I wont be surprised if Frankie steals the headlines from the winner and makes the day all about him.
Ground officially was changed to ‘Very Soft’ today at Longchamp racecourse with late rain tonight and rain throughout Sunday forecast upto the race start. Its going to be one hell of a test and it can easily change to heavy by race time.
When SOFT LIGHT THE SENSATIONAL wins the Arc you will hear a pin drop at Longchamp racecourse.
His sire won a group 1 on his 2nd racecourse start on heavy and his damsire won twice on soft at Longchamp at group level.
THE MORE IT RAINS THE MORE WE WIN BY
TEAM SOFT LIGHTCharlie Applebys brilliant form sadly continued today. Thats 10 favourites Charlie has had in the last 14 days all 10 favs beaten at odds of 8/5, 15/8, 7/10, EVS, 6/4, 3/1, 6/5, EVS, 1/2 and 8/15. As well as beatings for many 2nd fav, early favs and all of his runners have been single figure odds.
Those who live in cloud cuckoo land actually think this man is in form.
Sadly for those of us not requiring immediate medical attentiom we go into the arc with GHAIYYATH THE MONSTER having a major question mark hanging over his head in his trainers horriffic form.
The team go to the arc hopeful with GHAIYYATH but far from confident. Thankfully I have 2 absolute fire 3yo colts on my side in JAPAN and SOFT LIGHT who are ready willing and ABLE.
Fingers crossed GHAIYYATH can run his race DESPITE Applebys issues.
VERACIOUS ew 6/1
Loves Newmarket won her maiden on the rowley course and showed career best form last time on the July course with the promise of more to come.
Cheveley Park Stud have an outstanding record in this race. They won it with PEERESS (2005)and INTEGRAL (2014) (both Stoute trained).
They were 2nd in 2017, 2015,, 2013, 2007 and 2004. They were 3rd in 2009 and 2007. They clearly like to have a horse targeted at the Sun Chariot.Sir Michael is the master and can give them another winner. He has won this race 4 times with the first one coming in 1977.
The master delivers us VERACIOUS in the form of her life and she will be a hard horse to beat today.
Her mother was INFALLIBLE (cheveeley park stud owned) she won a maiden and a group 3 on the rowley track as well as 4th beaten just over a length in the 2008 1000 guineas over CD.
Her career best performance came on her only run on gd/sft in the Falmouth at Newmarket.Her father wasnt too shabby at Newmarket or on gd/sft either.
Stoute is flying with 6wins from last 24 runners and can be expected to produce a career peak VERACIOUS to land her season target for Cheveley Park Stud.
THEY ARE FAR TOO GOOD
THEY ARE CHEVELEY PARK STUDHappy with 6/1 on SNOW FALCON twice my price and have backed ew, should have a good chance.
3 35 Fontwell
win NEACHELS BRIDGE 10/1
Dont like the Dan Skeltern favourite here. Race is between Tizzards and Neil Mullhollands. And at 11/10 or 10/1 its an easy choice.
Mullholland yard on fire currently, NEACHELS BRIDGE was a progressive handicap hurdler in his 1st season but they have wasted no time switchinh to fences here. With stable on fire and jumping pedigree he could easily step up here and make a winning chase debut with just 2 rivals to beat.
Yes Jack thats the one. Godolphin only bring them back from this sort of break because they can still win group races. Nobody is better at getting these types ready from a long break. They can only be disappointed with that one.
Another day another short priced beaten fav for Charlie. MAGIC LILY 5/4F effotlessly brushed aside by LALANA a handicapper.
MAGIC LILY destroyed MAGICAL and was close to the winmer LAURENS in a group 1 on her 2nd racecoyrse start.
Godolphin only bring them back for one reason and thats to win group races. The way she got brushed aside by a handicapper wss sad to see.The misery continues for Appleby. Another day another certainty despatched with ease.
Your living in La La land if you think this mans in form.
12 50 Saint Cloud
win TOSEN GIFT 6/1
An exceptionally rare bet in France for me. Should have a good chance today.
Put me down for the looney farm then
Dont worry Ginge we had already put you down for the looney farm a long time ago.
Best of luck Steeplechasing with SOFT LIGHT he will be involved in the finish thats for sure.
Yutake Take is already a legend in Japan. If he pulls it off they will build a statue of him in the middle of Tokyo. What a story this will be if Yutake wins.
Watch SOFT LIGHT take on JAPAN over Arc course and distance. Note SOFT LIGHT is drawn widest of all and completely misses the break, JAPAN has 8-10 lengths headstart on him and is in an excellent position with his stablemate controlling the exact fractions that they wanted for JAPAN in this test.
At one point of the race SOFT LIGHT must have been 15 lengths off the pace. He was in the worst position turning for home last and wide. Switched so wide coming for home he absolutely flew without being touched and was only 4 lengths off JAPAN.
He showed the best improvement of his career last time following this Longchamp race. We can confidently expect that this 3yo colt has improved massively again. 120,000.00 Euros says he has.Is it possible that SOFT LIGHT can overturn that gap. Better drawn this time he can get a better race position through the race and he is now a better horse(as is JAPAN), his trainer is in better form and currently on fire. An ok break this time and on this occasion his jockey will be throwwing the kitchen sink at him in the finish. He can beat JAPAN and he can win the Arc.
Look at that horse he is a proper horse I have no doubt about that and he is coming into the arc in the form of his life and fast improving.
THE ARC WINNER SOFT LIGHT
GOD BLESS AND GOOD NIGHT
I think your living in cloud cuckoo land if you think Charlie Appleby is in good form. He is one of the highest strike rate trainers in Europe and over the last 5 years has an overall uk strike rate of 25%. His last 15 runners have been beaten and over half were short priced favourites.
September 2019 was Applebys worst ever month in his training career in terms of % of winners with just 2 from 18 and that is from 68 months worth of training stats (not included the 3 months in his career where he had 3 runners in a month and no winners as that is such few runners in a month). Thats a fact that he is currently in the worst form of his ENTIRE training career its not my opinion its a cold hard fact.
His current run of 15 defreats is Applebys longest ever run of defeats since he started training.
Applebys only runner Wednesday AL HAYATI trading odds on fav in the morning comes home 6th unplaced and well beat. Applebys only runner yesterday IMperial Empire sent off favourite trails home 6th of 8.
He is in the worst form of his career. Just because he is having horses come 2nd isnt good when they perhaps should be winning comfortably.This is Charlie Appleby, 15 runs and 19 days since a winner he is in horrific form even Stevie Wonder can see that.
However the DUBAWI/GALILEO freak ‘ THE MONSTER’ GHAIYYATH may be so good that he can still win the arc DESPITE his trainer.
No its not 10/1 you should never try to second guess my book.
FINAL TRUE ARC BOOK:
JAPAN (THE KARATE KID) 11/10
SOFT LIGHT (THE SENSATIONAL) 5/4
GHAIYYATH (THE MONSTER) 6/4
ENABLE 80/1
1000/1 BARMost sensational horse race of all time. Any one of the first 3 in the market could win it but who could begrudge 80/1 poke ENABLE a shock victory.
