Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Its not what im calling the ground? The official ground was very soft (which is heavy in uk terms). The course officially decribed it aa very soft. Every trainer and every jockey described it as very soft or heavy.
Looking at previous arc times over the last 15 years the time sits in as being ran on very soft.
The vast distances between runners also shows it was very soft.Just accept that the ground was very soft and move on. Stop trying to pretend you know more than the people at the course, experienced jockeys and trainers. It was very soft that isnt debatable.
Im hoping Ghaiyyath doesnt come here after his 33 length arc beating.
That may give THE BEAST a chance of being allowed to run here if godolphin have a suitable miler capable of winning the QEII to take The Beasts place.
The Beast would end Enables career in shame as she would take the beating of her life. However thats all pie in the sky as surely Enable wont race again and at present The Beast is QEII bound though still half a chance of the switch to this race.
Have you not considered that Racing Post Standard Times are compiled on races over CD and average times but not specifically on the Arc meeting.
Its well known that French races are ran at a crawl and turn into a sprint. The Arc is an international race however and therefor the French are outnumbered and dont often get to dictate a ‘french’ style race in the international race that is The Prix Arc. So basing the arc time on the course average time makes no sense whatsoever as there will be many french slower races making up that average and only one arc.Only 33/1 shock 4yo mare SOLEMIA on heavy and TREVES arc win as a 3yo on soft ground in a slowly ran race and workforces win on very soft were slower times than WALDGEISTs time in the previous 15 years of arcs.
John Gosden “The ground was heavy sticky and Enable got outstayed.
Andre Fabre “He enjoyed the heavy ground today”
TheRacingForum Member – Its good to soft.
Im siding with Gosden and Fabre on this occasion.
Soft Light ran a cracker in 6th place though the front 4 pulled a long way clear of Magical in 5th.
Japan ran his race and was beaten fair and square though ran a decent race.
Ghaiyyath went out like a light as they turned for home to finish 10th beating just 2 of the Japanese horses home. That was not the real Ghaiyyath we saw today as I feared may well be the case but I had to stick with him.Correct to take the favourite on with win bets but out foxed by the master of the arc.
Well done to the master Fabre and his 8th winner and anybody who was on. Winner was impressive.
Your an ‘Internet pro’ ginge. A pro in your own head only who desperately tries to convince strangers on the net that you are a pro(every forum has one). You are unable to have an opinion of your own on a race and usually back the fav the 2nd fav and the 3rd fav in the same race. You also clearly have a numbér of other ids that you talk to yourself in. Its beyond strange. a top pro who hangs on simon rowlands every word. Its a joke.
As for your list of Charlie Appleby winners in septemeber you have failed to note that the last of those worldwide winners was PINATUBO who is so superior he could win despite his stable form.
You also failed to recognise that the Canadian winner would have been in a Canadian stable for a while before the win and therfor would have avoided any virus in the yard so that win is irrelevant.You have also failed to recognise that the last of those September winners was September the 15th and its now October the 6th.
Its a fact that September in the UK was Applebys worst ever month in his career in terms of percentgae of winners to runners. So he had a few winners early in september but none after the star PINATUBO on the 15th.
10 short priced favs = 10 short priced losers in last 2 weeks
You literally are clueless. Its embarrasing.
Appleby is in horrific form. You are just ridiculous.
There were loads of british runners runnung yesteray at Longchamp? The grounds horrific both uk jockeys and trainers said the same thing.
Its rained more since yesterday.
The historically reliability of french ground reports is irrelevant as we had racing yesterday on track.
Appleby had a close 2nd in one Longchamp race and a one-two in another. He’s in pretty good form.
A close 2nd when you should be winninh easily doesnt equal good form.
As for the one two he had that was a 6 runner race. There was a complete outsider who stood no chance, a horse who was running in group company on only his 2nd racecourse start and was clearly out of his depth a horse who didnt like the ground and a horse whos trainer was also in awful form. So Appleby had 2 of the 6 runners in a battle of who was the best of a bad bunch.
ROYAL CRUSADE was the favourite, he was a close 2nd over 7f to one of the best 2yos of the season in THREAT he should have won the race doing cartwheels vut got beaten by his much bigger priced stable mate who wasnt expected to beat him at all amd whos best prev form was 3rd in a listed race.The form of that race isnt worth the paper its written on and if you believe that 1st and 2nd proves appleby is in form then you dont know what your doing which is clear anyway.
Appleby is in pig awful form. Why lie?
Even if you pretended the 1/2 he had was good form then even a 1 win from 18 in the last 2 weeks equates to truely horrific form for Charlie Appleby who is one of the most high strike trainers going.
People dont seem to understand that heavy ground is completely different to soft ground. It requires a completely different action if the ground is truely heavy which im certain it is in paris by uk standards.
Some horses will win on soft and heavy but some horses will also win on good and good/firm ground but it doesnt make the two grounds the same.
A penetrometer IS A GOING STICK ham.
What the french call very soft the british call heavy.
Battaash simply has to be taken on here. He is unlikely to show his best on heavy and may well hate conditions its a total guess with him.
Undoubtedly one of the best sprinters around on his day thiugh the York run probably flattered him slightly the same as it flattered Mums Tipple when she looked so good there.Gone for SESTILIO JET 40/1 ew.
Proven french heavy ground performer as he won his group 3 over this CD on heavy.
Sent off 2/1 fav to beat GLASS SLIPPEERS last time but only 4th. However that was ran on good ground and was on the back of a 105 day break, they just used it to put the horse spot on for today.Dettoris an eyecatching booking and 40/1 is massive. Surely has a big chance today under these conditions with more improvement still to come.
That article Mike is complete and utter gibberish.
after further overnight rain hit Paris last night turning the Longchamp going on Sunday morning to ‘very soft’.
This is false the ground was officially changed to very soft on Saturday before the overnight rain came.
Penetrometer reading is currently 4.1
4.1 on the going stick in the uk equals very heavy ground and it will be worse than 4.1 by race time.
Dettori said on Saturday: “She copes with this ground. She won the King George and Breeders’ Cup Turf on soft groundThis is completely different ground than what she has ever raced on Dettori is talking gibberish. Also saying “she copes” hardly inspires confidence its not as if she relishes or loves soft. She is a complete unknown on the ground and her legs are old.
Enable’s credentials today…
Highest official rating – tick – Nobody can question that though not open to any improvement and highly vulnerable to those who are.
Season form – tick.- Every runner has ‘season form’.
Course form – tick. -Most of the runners have course form.
Won on soft – tick. -Its not soft? Its an absolute bog, she has no form under these conditions and its a guess as to whether she will act on the surface.
Not badly drawn – tick.- She is badly drawn 9 of 12?
Trainer form – tick. – All trainers bar Charlie Appleby are in form.
Jockey course form – tick.- ??? All of todays jockeys have riddeb the track before and had winners here??Enable backers are being led over the cliff like lemmings by the media who are all scared to say anything bad about Enable. She isnt an odds on chance today – FACT.
Enable does have a chance on form but on ratings its not a great chance when you acknowledge that horses who already have form close to her are improving and she isnt. Its not as if she is miles clear on ratings, she isnt and she is highly vulnerable to improvers this time.
Any market drift wouldnt be any concern at all to me. Market drifts start from opinions. I trust my own opinion not that of strangers.
Japans price is likely to shorten up at some point pre race though its of no concern to me if it doesnt.The three Japanese runners are a mystery but ruled out. Oneday they will win an arc but probably not this one.
WALDGEIST is best on better ground. Earlier in his career he was a beaten unplaced favourite on heavy and was aslo turned over at odds on in 5 runner race on very soft.
FRENCH KING arrives in form and improving but his 4 turf wins all cane on good ground and his form comes up short anyway.
SOTTSASS doubtful stayer over this trip at group 1 level. With the ground adding to the severe stamina test, he looks certain to fail. His most potent weapon is his turn of foot but that is blunted on this ground even if he did stay in todays conditions. Its also his 1st run against elders.
MAGICAL this race is her 8th group race in 5 1/2 months and its the hardest race for her yet ran under barbaric conditions. The phrase ‘one trip to the well too many’ springs to mind. Her record over 1m 4f is 4 runs, 3 defeats and a win against her own sex. The only time she ran this trip against the colts she came 10th in last years arc. A better horse this year but she isnt progressive and has pretty much sat on the 122 rating all season. She is completely held by enable and will be finding this all too much today at the business end. On formlines with Crystal Ocean she is comfortably held by JAPAN who is improving at a rate of knots and it wouldnt have been a hard decision for Ryan Moore to pick JAPAN here no matter what he says.
NAGANO GOLD is an interesting outsider who could go well today. He has winning form on heavy and decent form in the book. He has 2 lengths to find with SOFT LIGHT but SOFT LIGHT is a fast improver who will love conditions so I expect SOFT LIGHT to come out on top though NAGANO definitely has an ew chance here.
ENABLE has a chance on form but ultimately she peaked as a 3yo and was a lucky winner on her only previous run at Longchamp. Still a top class mare but extraordinarily vulnerable this time. Her price is embarrassing and in no way reflects her actual chance.GHAIYYATH the horrific form of Charlie Appleby means that all of the teams confidence has gone in this horse. On ability he can win though and never underestimate the freak dubawi/galileo cross. My bets on and he is running for me and I will be delighted if he can do it but im only hopeful and not confident. I certainly wouldnt be backing him if I hadnt already done so.
It comes down to which 3yo colt will win JAPAN or SOFT LIGHT and its a coin toss as to which way it will go.
