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1/10 fav – Dettori announces that he is to retire at the end of the season
In the unlikely event of Enable winning then I think Dettori will definitely announce his plans to retire straight after the race.
He may keep the news for another day if she gets beat as we expect her to. Though I wont be surprised if Frankie steals the headlines from the winner and makes the day all about him.
Potato – He may keep the news for another day if she gets beat as we expect her to.
What do you mean ‘we’.
‘We’ = The Team.
All of the team insist Enable is getting beaten here.
Guaranteed final ‘True’ Arc book:
SOFT LIGHT 10/11
JAPAN 5/4
GHAIYYATH 6/1
NEGANO GOLD 16/1
ENABLE 100/1
1000/1 BARDettori is using an oar instead of a whip for when he starts paddling at the 3 pole.
Surely Gosden/Abdullah would be declaring Enable a non runner under normal circumstances in these conditions.
Could be more runners pulled up here than in the Gold Cup. Conditions are absolutely barbaric and fast declining.
Enable/Battaash double paying 2/1. That is extremely tempting! I’m in!
Forecast on Enable & Magical for me also
The ground could be the deciding factor so I think I’ll side with Japan. He looks as if he will stay all day. Not many will handle the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if one gets placed at a big price.
The three Japanese runners are a mystery but ruled out. Oneday they will win an arc but probably not this one.
WALDGEIST is best on better ground. Earlier in his career he was a beaten unplaced favourite on heavy and was aslo turned over at odds on in 5 runner race on very soft.
FRENCH KING arrives in form and improving but his 4 turf wins all cane on good ground and his form comes up short anyway.
SOTTSASS doubtful stayer over this trip at group 1 level. With the ground adding to the severe stamina test, he looks certain to fail. His most potent weapon is his turn of foot but that is blunted on this ground even if he did stay in todays conditions. Its also his 1st run against elders.
MAGICAL this race is her 8th group race in 5 1/2 months and its the hardest race for her yet ran under barbaric conditions. The phrase ‘one trip to the well too many’ springs to mind. Her record over 1m 4f is 4 runs, 3 defeats and a win against her own sex. The only time she ran this trip against the colts she came 10th in last years arc. A better horse this year but she isnt progressive and has pretty much sat on the 122 rating all season. She is completely held by enable and will be finding this all too much today at the business end. On formlines with Crystal Ocean she is comfortably held by JAPAN who is improving at a rate of knots and it wouldnt have been a hard decision for Ryan Moore to pick JAPAN here no matter what he says.
NAGANO GOLD is an interesting outsider who could go well today. He has winning form on heavy and decent form in the book. He has 2 lengths to find with SOFT LIGHT but SOFT LIGHT is a fast improver who will love conditions so I expect SOFT LIGHT to come out on top though NAGANO definitely has an ew chance here.
ENABLE has a chance on form but ultimately she peaked as a 3yo and was a lucky winner on her only previous run at Longchamp. Still a top class mare but extraordinarily vulnerable this time. Her price is embarrassing and in no way reflects her actual chance.GHAIYYATH the horrific form of Charlie Appleby means that all of the teams confidence has gone in this horse. On ability he can win though and never underestimate the freak dubawi/galileo cross. My bets on and he is running for me and I will be delighted if he can do it but im only hopeful and not confident. I certainly wouldnt be backing him if I hadnt already done so.
It comes down to which 3yo colt will win JAPAN or SOFT LIGHT and its a coin toss as to which way it will go.
“Enable has a chance on form”?
haha!
MAGICAL this race is her 8th group race in 5 1/2 months and its the hardest race for her yet ran under barbaric conditions. The phrase ‘one trip to the well too many’ springs to mind.
Think you said the same thing before she won the Group1 Irish Champion Stakes. One day she will have run one race too many, but whilst she shows no sign of it, it’s pointless guessing that she has.
Her Group 1 form this season is RPR 121,123,122,123,120. All she has to do is run to form and she’ll place from a much better draw than last year when she had to be dropped out the back.
12/1 on a horse that has that consistently over Group 1s is way overpriced.
Japan is a bit weak in the market this morning, which has to be a concern. I guess today we might finally understand whether the Juddmonte form is garbage or not.
Enable does have a chance on form but on ratings its not a great chance when you acknowledge that horses who already have form close to her are improving and she isnt. Its not as if she is miles clear on ratings, she isnt and she is highly vulnerable to improvers this time.
Any market drift wouldnt be any concern at all to me. Market drifts start from opinions. I trust my own opinion not that of strangers.
Japans price is likely to shorten up at some point pre race though its of no concern to me if it doesnt.Enable’s credentials today…
Highest official rating – tick.
Season form – tick.
Course form – tick.
Distance form – tick.
Won on soft – tick.
Not badly drawn – tick.
Trainer form – tick.
Jockey course form – tick.So I have a slightly different view of Enable’s chances than Potato’s.
Enable’s credentials today…
Highest official rating – tick – Nobody can question that though not open to any improvement and highly vulnerable to those who are.
Season form – tick.- Every runner has ‘season form’.
Course form – tick. -Most of the runners have course form.
Won on soft – tick. -Its not soft? Its an absolute bog, she has no form under these conditions and its a guess as to whether she will act on the surface.
Not badly drawn – tick.- She is badly drawn 9 of 12?
Trainer form – tick. – All trainers bar Charlie Appleby are in form.
Jockey course form – tick.- ??? All of todays jockeys have riddeb the track before and had winners here??Enable backers are being led over the cliff like lemmings by the media who are all scared to say anything bad about Enable. She isnt an odds on chance today – FACT.
I do agree with Potato in that the ground will play a big part in the race but for me its for the placings. I think the ground has actually enhanced Enable’s chances as I think Japan’s, Waldgeist’s, and Sottsass’s turn of foot wont be able to be shown today.
Japan seemed to handle testing conditions as a 2 yr old albeit not at a top level and had an entry in the Leger so wouldn’t be surprised if he followed her home. Finding the 3rd place is tricky and I wouldn’t put off anybody backing anything huge priced for that place. I’m hoping Waldgeist can do it as I’m on big each way antepost but it’s just hope rather than expectation on the ground.
Not sure Ghaiyyath and Magical want it this testing over 12f either. I can see the Soft Light place angle on the ground, like I said from my point of view 3rd place is up for grabs so you never know.
I’m sticking with what I have, looking forward to it.
Enable 7-4 WIN
Waldgeist 33-1 ewIt’s not a fact, it’s a potato fact and as we know those facts are usually anything but.
Enable has won 10 group 1s in a row. She’s unbeaten. Proven on distance, proven on form, proven on ground. She’s an odds on chance no doubt.
Oh no wait, it’s Soft Light that’s an odds on chance
Anyway, without making the thread all about potato again, I am super excited for this race, there feels like such a massive anticipation and tension in the air. Really happy ITV have got the coverage and hoping Enable does it for the millions watching and it becomes a great advert for the sport.
Come on Enable!
It seems like there was some heavy rainfall in the morning. Would greatly appreciate any up-to-date info on the ground condtion, track bias etc. (preferably from someone not associated with ‘the Team’). Cheers.
Regarding the Japanese invaders, Kiseki and Blast Onepiece can handle soft going (Fierement is untested) but I still don’t like their chances (Fierement and Blast Onepiece are the the third and fourth favorites after Enable and Japan here in Japan).
Finding the 3rd place is tricky and I wouldn’t put off anybody backing anything huge priced for that place. I’m hoping Waldgeist can do it as I’m on big each way antepost but it’s just hope rather than expectation on the ground.
It’s a funny race odds wise, with 6 of the 12, 100/1 or more on the exchanges. I hope the ground doesn’t play too much of a part. Waldgiest is best on sounder surface apparently these days, but he still put up 119 RRP on Soft at Ascot. I think the first 3 won’t be much of a surprise myself.
I’d say the first 4 home will be Enable, Magical, Waldgiest, Japan.
I was considering an EW on Fierement at one stage yesterday Kiseki. Are there any trainer comments about the ground for him?
Ground conditions update…
Enable’s history-making bid for a third Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will be played out on testing ground, after further overnight rain hit Paris last night turning the Longchamp going on Sunday morning to ‘very soft’.
The ground is not predicted to change for racing, which starts at 1.15pm, and the Penetrometer reading is currently 4.1. There is also a 17-metre strip of fresh ground for Sunday’s racing.
While it is currently dry in the French capital, further rain is forecast following an estimated 3.5mm last night. The ground will be inspected again at noon.
John Gosden’s star won her first Arc in 2017 on soft ground, the most testing conditions she has faced in her career, and on Sunday morning she remained steady in the betting at a general 4-7.
Dettori said on Saturday: “She copes with this ground. She won the King George and Breeders’ Cup Turf on soft ground. We’re also racing on a different track tomorrow and I don’t think you can compare it to the track we’re on today.”
I’d say the first 4 home will be Enable, Magical, Waldgiest, Japan.
Yes, I’m leaning that way myself. Love Sottsass’s turn of foot but agree with Potato that it’s likely to be blunted here.
Connections for Fierement would definitely prefer a fast track. Sunday Silence/Deep Impact bloodlines thrive on the fast courses in Japan. That’s why Almond Eye’s connections made the sensible decision to pass on this race. I’m pretty sure She’d destroy Enable in Tokyo…
Thanks for the weather update, Mike007!
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