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The giant ONURBIKE will need this 1st run back and the sharp track doesnt play to his strengtgs.
DAY OF ROSES carries 12 stone and is on a lifetime high mark, he also wont like the ground.
The ground will be a problem for MAX O.
Twiston Davies is in good form with 6 winners from last 18 runners but he is 0/12 with his chasers over the last 3 years.
BALLYART makes no appeal at odds on on his 1st start for 6 months. He didnt show much on his chasing debut when last seen. He has been unplaced on 6 of his 7 starts under rules with the only decent run coming on heavy at chepstow in atrocious conditions.The favourite looks to be priced up on trainers/jockeys reputation but it is KATY PRICE who is the superior trainer of chasers. she boasts an 18% strike rate over fences compared to nigels 15%(last 5 years). She is an up and coming trainer who knows how to train a chaser. she also has a 20% strike rate at bangor with her chasers.
ITSAMANSLIFE showed great ability to win on his chase debut. The two runs after were not so good but the better ground was against him and he was in need of a rest.
Todays mark should be within range and if ‘Killer’ Katie Price has this horse fit enough to do himself justice thenhe should win. 3m on a sharp track and soft ground will suit this prominent racer and he shoudl have plenty more to come this season as a 6/7yo. Looks a great opportunity for a win today.
3 05 Warwick
win NUBE NEGRA 9/2 bf sportsbook
DUNBAY CREEK 500/1 and no chance whatsoever.
Its been 132 days since Chris Gordon had a winner and his 2 recent runners both ran flat so we cant touch COMMANCHE CREEK today on his 1st run back even though he has ran well fresh before.
Snowden hasnt had a winner for 25 days and is 0/7 last 5 years with chasers at Warwick. THISTLEDONICELY will probably also need more of a stamina test especially on a sharp track
EQUUS AMADEUS has won 4 times but none of the wins had soft in the description. Looked an unnatural on his only previous run over fences. likely to need 1st run of year also. Trainer 2/4 in last 2 weeks so in form he is also 2/4 with chasers at warwick and Johnstons booked so dont 100% rule out but not for this team.
BALLYMOY is odds on and his hurdles rating is well above these rivals. However he normally races over further and this trip looks too short especially on a sharp track. This is his first run over fences, he tended to make errors over hurdles and isnt the biggest horse so may not take to fences. He has a top owner, trainers in good form and he did win 1st time out last season but he is a very risky proposition here at odds on. The team are keen to take him on though fully aware he may win.
NUBE NEGRA was 5/10 in the grade 1 doom bar juvenile hurdle at the aintree festival in 2017. He showed decent form over hurdles last season without winnin. Looks a 2 miler where as many rivals look like they need further. Sharp track 2miles and ground suit.
Trainer won this race last year and is in form. Prominent racing style is suited to the track. Was 6th of 14 in the scottish champion hurdle when last seen.
Likely to improve greatly this season as a 5/6yo and should improve for fences.
The fav may find it hard to peg him back at this trip on a sharp track especially if he makes as many errors over fences as he did over hurdles.
Looks a decent opportunity for TEAM SKELTON to upset the odds on fav.The team took on yesterdays twiston davies odds on fav and got it unplaced though sadly we were on the wrong one.
Today we turned over anoyher oďds on fav from the twister man but the team made no mistake this time and it was a lovely return at 5/1.
The winne4 looks a nice prospect and Nigels runner needs a stamina test though he will need to brush up on that jumping if he is to progress.
4 20 Lingfield
ew AWAKE IN ASIA 14/1
The Prescott fav should be unplaced. AWAKE IN ASIA looked to be running into form when 4th last time and should progress again with Jason Watson booked this time. BROGANS BAY will try and make all and is dangerous though this travk isnt suited to frontrunners. (He has history of going well from the front here though but is still vulnerable).
AWAKE IN ASIA has a fair chance here at decent odds.
DEVIL OR ANGEL looks held this time by BROGANS BAY.I have also place layed the Prescott runner at 1.5 on betfair though wont include that in this threads figures.
A lovely place lay at 1.5 as Prescotts slowcoach only beavts 2 home. Shame about AWAKE IN ASIA who was only 4th however even though he got the better of the front 3 in the market this time.
5 30 Chelmsford
ew CALL ME KATIE 11/1
Should be able to get her head in front this time on her 1st aw run. Ran well first 2 races over 7f and then not suited by drop to 6f last time.
Chelmsford should suit her as she likes to race prominently and she has a nice draw in 2.
Its a competitve race but KATIE can improve again and could be a hard horse to reel in this time. Her price of 11/1 has insulted me as she shouldnt be any bigger than 4/1. As such bet365 will be punished.
6 30 Chelmsford
win BONDI SANDS 6/1
win DOUGLAS FIR 8/1The fav SOUTH COAST and the 2nd fav BAPTISM were 2nd and 3rd to a Mark Johnston horse at Epsom last time.
MJ will know what is required to beat these 2 amd he arrives double handed with 2 very interesting looking colts who are both out of AUSTRALIA. Both of MJs look potentially decent horses and I am backing both full stake win bets.
12 50 Saint Cloud
win TOSEN GIFT 6/1
An exceptionally rare bet in France for me. Should have a good chance today.
3 35 Fontwell
win NEACHELS BRIDGE 10/1
Dont like the Dan Skeltern favourite here. Race is between Tizzards and Neil Mullhollands. And at 11/10 or 10/1 its an easy choice.
Mullholland yard on fire currently, NEACHELS BRIDGE was a progressive handicap hurdler in his 1st season but they have wasted no time switchinh to fences here. With stable on fire and jumping pedigree he could easily step up here and make a winning chase debut with just 2 rivals to beat.
The fav is a mare who has to carry 12 stone 6 in a hcap, she is racing from a mark 10lb above her best hurdles winning mark and needs to prove she can jump a fence. She is a vulnerable looking short priced fav.
STRICTLY DANCER needs further than this and wont have the pace to get involved when they quicken for home on his 1st run back.
FLIGHT TO MILAN wants soft ground and would prefer more of a galloping track.
RIZZARDO needs further and looks an unlikely winner on his chase hcap debut.
WENSCLAULAS is likely to need the run.
SONG OF THE SKY is suited by this trip. She was 3rd over CD on chase debut. She jumped slowly at times and mafe a few minor errors but her jumping warmed up through the race and she is likely to be a lot better for that experience this time jumping wise. She gets to race from a 1lb lower mark.
She should be ridden more prominently this time and should be hard to beat today for a trainer who is 3 wins from 6 at the track with his chasers. No mistake from the Charlie Mann team this time.3 35 Leicester
win SPANISH ARCHER 11/4
This 4 runner race looks like an open goal for Spanish Archer. Surprise if he can be beaten.
5 40 Chelmsford
win BUWARDY 8/1
win IMPERIAL SQUARE 18/12 full strength win bets as the team viciously attack the Charlie ‘Sick Note’ Appleby short priced and being backed favourite SECRET VICTORY.
Gosden 2yos often need their 1st run. BUWARDY ran in a red hot Newmarket race on debut won by Aiden O’Briens Dewhurst/Futurity Stakes entry NEW WORLD TAPESTRY.
BUWARDY missed the break and ran as green as grass in last for most of the race. He will improve massively for that experience and is a big player here. His sire INVINCIBLE SPIRIT was also beat on 2yo debut but really stepped up and won on his 2nd run. His mother was a group 1 winner as a 2yo in NZ. Gosden won this race in 2017 with a 2yo on his 2nd start who was 5th on debut.IMPERIAL SQUARE is bred to be a machine, SEA OF STARS crossed with a DUBAWI mare. The Stoute odds on fav and the Gosden winner in that race both had experience.
The jockey took it very easy once it was clear he had no answer to Gosdens and Stoutes. He would have been 3rd had the jockey made effort. Was only 11/4 to win that race.
Chelmsford will suit his prominent racing style better than Newcastle did and should be a lot wiser this time. Must have a decent chance here.
SEA THE STARS offspring are 4 wins from 8 different runners at Chrlmsford with 2yos.4 40 Kempton
win RAAJIN 14/1
win BEAUTY CHOICE 33/12 full strength win bets as the team once again viciously attack the short priced fav from Charlie ‘Sick Note’ Appleby.
If you arent making money from blindly laying these short priced Appleby runners at the moment then shame on you. This thread isnt about lays though its about winners.
1 15 Ludlow
win BEAU DU BRIZAIS 7/2
3rd in this race from a 13lb lower mark last year. Much improved horse since however and should take the world of beating this year carrying top weight and a mark of 135. Stable on fire.
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