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HERMOSA 8/1
Not stay in Nassau but come back to form at weekend now will improve on her next run think it be here and can reverse form with winner from weekend and any others turn up
It’s a really cracking looking race if they all turn up. I will wait for the final decs and draw.
Waiting to see what the weather does here as if more rain falls, as forecast, there are one or two who will not be liking it including Veracious and my original fancy Lavender’s Blue.
I can’t see Veracious going off favourite whatever the weather, she’s never won on anything softer than good and has more to beat here…
likewise Lavender’s Blue who likes to hear her feet rattle…she is such a progressive filly and has to take a big step up here from an impressive Group 3 victory.
It took Lavender’s Blue quite a while to recover from her bad experience in the Oaks and I doubt Amanda Perrett will want to risk running her unless she feels she can cope with the softer conditions.We’ll know more later today and I really hope she runs but for me on the current ground I’m swayyed to go with ..
Iridessa 5/1 to win
I Can Fly represents a solid each way bet at around 14/1
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...This race will be interesting to watch pan out. As Trip says the grounds a worry for one or two.
Also the pace might be ferocious, Hermosa’s best runs have been when at least prominent or leading. Laurens likes to race up front and Veracious’s G1 came when making all.
Perhaps one or two of them won’t try and lead, but if they do it could pay to be on one from off the pace.
I agree with your two selections Trip. I’ll be joining you.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Best of luck Jack
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Iridessa to repeat her win in Ireland
like Jack says the front two could cut each other and this one can pounce
surprised Aidan didn’t enter Just WonderfulGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
No real idea on this race, but had a try Ante post earlier in the week. Hermona @ 5/1 ( missed 6/1 available with Bet Victor ) & Lauren @ 9/2 William Hills. Best of luck everyone.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Made no secret of how much i love laurens, but ill be with iridessa for this also, no reason she cant repeat last time
This is such a hard race to call, not much between them really. With a doubt about Veracious on the ground, I Can Fly having had enough chances since Ascot last year to prove she can win races and Lavenders Blue a bit too much to prove in this company at the moment it’s one of three for me. Iridessa, Laurens and Hermosa. It’s a toss up between them really. Iridessa hasn’t won on anything worse than Good and had the race set up for her last time. Races more often than not don’t repeat themselves next time up and I’ll go back to the draw here. Laurens is in 2 and Hermosa in 7, so they might not get the chance to take each other on this time. Outside Hermosa are two horses that like to be held up, so I’m going to go with Hermosa here to get out in front and bag the rail and win going away up that Newmarket golden highway on the stands rail!
Hermosa 9/2
Good price with the 8s Darren!
Certainly a difficult race to call especially as the big players have all taken turns to beat each other over time.
Iridessa looked to be back to her best last time out so have stay with my choice here and good luck Nathan, Ham and Jack all of like mind.I Can Fly may have had her chances to win in Group 1 company but she has, unlike some, taken her chances amongst the colts and running a neck second to Roaring Lion at Ascot and third to Too Darn Hot and Circus Maximus in The Sussex Stakes at Goodwood brings her into this race with a good CV and she will have her ground. 14/1 is a really good each way bet.
I’m not so worried about the draw in this race as on the Rowley Mile course the rails are constantly moved and any draw bias analysis over time would need reviewing.
This is going to be a fantastic race to watch as these top class fillies go into battle down the Rowley Mile.
Also looking forward to seeing them in the pre parade to get a closer look at them together. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I don’t think much has been getting into it from off the pace this year at Newmarket though has it Jac? Which is a negative for Iridessa as well. The run at Ascot was an Ascot specialist type run from I Can Fly. 14/1 would actually worry me as well, she was only sent off at that price this year in the Lockhinge and Sussex, every other time she’s been really quite short. She’s got a squeak at placing if in anywhere near the form of the QEII and Sussex but she’s a bit frustrating to follow and there’s no market confidence in here at all at the moment.
The draw is fascinating for me, because you have Laurens in 2, Veracious in 4 and Hermosa in 7. Where the race pans out is critical for the winner. I’m sure Ryan is going to get out and bag the rail so what Veracious does in 4 is crucial.
To explain the draw bias, if you look at the last 10 runnings of this:
2018 – Winner Drawn 9 from 10 Runners
2017 – Winner Drawn 1 from 13 Runners – (Roly Poly was good enough to get herself over to the near side and Persuasive the fav in a high draw was likely to be running on ground quicker than ideal)
2016 – Winner Drawn 7 From 8
2015 – Winner Drawn 1 from 9. (Second was drawn 2, both horses managed to get across in a slowly run race. Unlikely to be a slowly run race tomorrow)
2014 – Drawn 8 from 7 Runners (one non runner)
2013 – Drawn 2 from 7 (Race unfolded middle to far side)
2012 – Drawn 1 from 8 (Race unfolded on the far side)
2011 – Drawn 7 from 8.
2010 – Drawn 9 from 11.
2009 – Drawn 9 from 8 (one non runner)So 8/10 runnings were won near side. If Veracious comes over to the near side, Laurens has to win by coming right across from stall 2 and she will have a hard time doing that in a strongly run race, which it’s likely to be. What would be interesting is if Veracious goes right and with Laurens stay middle to far side, but I think that’s unlikely, so in theory Hermosa will be in the best place of the track having covered the shorter distance and might get to dictate things.
Let’s see!
Even with I Can Fly having had 21 races i think it’s hard to pinpoint her as an Ascot specialist, Frenchy. She has had 6 runs on soft or heavy, and two of them have been at Ascot over a mile. The others have been 7f x2 and once over 1m2 + 1m4.
She has shown fair form at other tracks, it just so happens that her two runs at Ascot have been over a mile and soft. This hasn’t happened at any other track in her career.
We will see, but at 14s, soft ground and a mile, i’d hope she’s overs.
As for market support, if the boys like her she’ll be backed on the day, not a day or two before!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s a fair point Jack and I don’t actually mean she is just an Ascot specialist, but both her runs there have been exactly that of an Ascot specialist. Coming late off the pace over a strong mile. We see it time and time again there at Ascot.
It puts a fair amount of doubt in my mind that she might just be best suited by Ascot and when I see 14/1 I think, yeah the market thinks so too. On top of that (without stats to back this up), but it seems to be that prominent horses are winning more often than not at Newmarket this season, whereas if you get in front too early at Ascot you are there to be shot at which suits I Can Fly’s style
That all said, if I see strong market support for her in the next 24 hours, I’ll get interested. She’s a horse I’ve backed before.
Newmarket is a front runners track. The dip makes it harder to come from behind as you can’t make up ground the same, hence horses really getting going as it flattens out the last furlong or so. It’s not quite Chester but it’s more biased than Newbury say.
My only financial interest in this so far was the 6/1 I thought I was smart in taking
on Lavenders Blue ante post at the start of the week. Like Jac (Triptych) I’m a big fan of
this horse but I’m just wondering if the conditions have turned against her. There doesn’t
appear to be a lot of confidence behind her in the market having drifted out from 5/1 to
7/1. I’m just hoping that the fair breeze we have will help get the ground back to good,
I see it’s improved from soft to good to soft. I’m not as confident as I was at the start
of the week
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