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SOFT LIGHT is an outrageous price, cant believe I got matched at 200.0 and 210.00 what a machine this one is, the 3yo colt has a genuine chance of emulating his father AUTHORIZED who was sent off 11/10 fav to win the Arc but ran a shocker with dettori saying “this was not the same horse im used to riding” as he came back after the race.
His damsire ‘KING KENDOR of LONGCHAMP’ won 2 group 1 races at Longchamp and a group 3 here and loved this racecourse.SOFT LIGHT has had 6 races this season. The 1st race rpr isnt available but the next 5 recorder rprs were:
97, 100, 106, 105, 114
He has shown steady improvement from race 1 to 3 he then improved again in race 4 to record a 106rpr when only beaten a neck in a Chantilly group 2 by godolphins AL HALEEL.
On his 5th race he was beaten 4 lengths by JAPAN at a longchamp group 1 over Arc CD. The horse missed the break and had the carpark draw, hewas way off the pace in last place and turned for home from a very wide position he flew home widest of all and got a fast closing 5th without being touched in the closing stages as the horses from the front were away and gone. He can certainly close the gap on JAPAN (true race favourite) and its not inconceivable that he could improve past him from the fast pace this arc will be ran at. If there is a possibility he can beat Japan there is a very strong possibility he is the 2019 arc winner.
What he did in his 6th run last time was a massive spike upwards recording an rpr of 114 on his 1st ever run against elders.
This is a 3yo colt who is on a serious upward curve. He must be showing very positive signs that he has improved at home since as they have paid a small fortune to supplement him for this race, €120,000.00 cost to supplement him. You dont pay that money out without believing you have a genuine chance. He is also likely to improve for that first ever experience against his elders last time so could quite easily be running a rpr in the high 120s this time.
If the ground is riding heavy which I believe it will then this colt won by 3 lengths on his 2yo debut on heavy ground. The heavy (assuming we get it)could blunt key players and bring him right into the equation.In 2012 SOLEMIA was a 33/1 no hoper 4yo mare. Her best rpr of that season was 112 and that came back in April 1st time out. She ran to 124 to win the arc as heavy ground was a great leveller. She was drawn in magic stall 6. SOFT LIGHT is drawn in magic draw 6.
Trainer J Rouget has always been unlucky in the arc so far but is currently on fire with 7 wins from his last 15 runners and comes into the arc in the form of his life.
Legendary japanese jockey Yutaka Take could be on the ride of his life here. The Monday morning Racing Post front page headline could read ‘MAN FROM JAPAN BEATS JAPAN’.
SOFT LIGHT at 210.00 could be THE SPECIAL ONE. The flat winner of a lifetime. Definite chance here absolutely sensational Arc winner expected.
How can I possibly lose this race? I have potentially the two best 3yo colts in the world in JAPAN and SOFT LIGHT and I also have the DUBAWI/GALILEO freak horse ‘THE MONSTER’ GHAIYYATH. Im so confident I have this race all sewn up. Absolutely brimming with confidence.
ENABLE has nowhere to hide this time.
Backed SOFT LIGHT at average odds of 203.33 and he is currently my best winner of the Arc in terms of financial gain.
THEY ALL THOUGHT HE WAS SH*TE
BUT HE IS THE CHAMP SOFT LIGHT 
Sorry my mistake its going to be on the fast side of good on sunday.
It takes a special sort of special to pull out the my weather websites better than your weather website. THEY ALL SAY RAIN
Though it is somewhat ammusing they say tropical rainstorm when Paris is no where near the equator
6 30 Chelmsford
win BONDI SANDS 6/1
win DOUGLAS FIR 8/1The fav SOUTH COAST and the 2nd fav BAPTISM were 2nd and 3rd to a Mark Johnston horse at Epsom last time.
MJ will know what is required to beat these 2 amd he arrives double handed with 2 very interesting looking colts who are both out of AUSTRALIA. Both of MJs look potentially decent horses and I am backing both full stake win bets.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/longchamp/148665/weather-forecast/148665
It has been raining today. More rain due late to night.
A tropical rainstorm is predicted tomorrow. If thats accurate its heavy on sunday full stop. A tropical rainstorm will drop an insane aount of water in a short time on the track if it happens.
Showers through out saturday with rain falling in the lead up to the race on Sunday.
The team strongly advise that KEVMC packs his brolly and wellington boots as even a bit of rain can quickly turn Longchamp heavy especially when there will have been a day and a half of racing on the course prior to the arc.
The team also strongly advise that you dont rely on a weather website that specialises in wind for your future rain related forecasts.
# Just read that the course is keeping a 6 mtr fresh strip all the way round the course for the arc. So the previous races wont effect the going though a tropical rainstorm most certainly will.
5 30 Chelmsford
ew CALL ME KATIE 11/1
Should be able to get her head in front this time on her 1st aw run. Ran well first 2 races over 7f and then not suited by drop to 6f last time.
Chelmsford should suit her as she likes to race prominently and she has a nice draw in 2.
Its a competitve race but KATIE can improve again and could be a hard horse to reel in this time. Her price of 11/1 has insulted me as she shouldnt be any bigger than 4/1. As such bet365 will be punished.A lovely place lay at 1.5 as Prescotts slowcoach only beavts 2 home. Shame about AWAKE IN ASIA who was only 4th however even though he got the better of the front 3 in the market this time.
4 20 Lingfield
ew AWAKE IN ASIA 14/1
The Prescott fav should be unplaced. AWAKE IN ASIA looked to be running into form when 4th last time and should progress again with Jason Watson booked this time. BROGANS BAY will try and make all and is dangerous though this travk isnt suited to frontrunners. (He has history of going well from the front here though but is still vulnerable).
AWAKE IN ASIA has a fair chance here at decent odds.
DEVIL OR ANGEL looks held this time by BROGANS BAY.I have also place layed the Prescott runner at 1.5 on betfair though wont include that in this threads figures.
The team took on yesterdays twiston davies odds on fav and got it unplaced though sadly we were on the wrong one.
Today we turned over anoyher oďds on fav from the twister man but the team made no mistake this time and it was a lovely return at 5/1.
The winne4 looks a nice prospect and Nigels runner needs a stamina test though he will need to brush up on that jumping if he is to progress.
3 05 Warwick
win NUBE NEGRA 9/2 bf sportsbook
DUNBAY CREEK 500/1 and no chance whatsoever.
Its been 132 days since Chris Gordon had a winner and his 2 recent runners both ran flat so we cant touch COMMANCHE CREEK today on his 1st run back even though he has ran well fresh before.
Snowden hasnt had a winner for 25 days and is 0/7 last 5 years with chasers at Warwick. THISTLEDONICELY will probably also need more of a stamina test especially on a sharp track
EQUUS AMADEUS has won 4 times but none of the wins had soft in the description. Looked an unnatural on his only previous run over fences. likely to need 1st run of year also. Trainer 2/4 in last 2 weeks so in form he is also 2/4 with chasers at warwick and Johnstons booked so dont 100% rule out but not for this team.
BALLYMOY is odds on and his hurdles rating is well above these rivals. However he normally races over further and this trip looks too short especially on a sharp track. This is his first run over fences, he tended to make errors over hurdles and isnt the biggest horse so may not take to fences. He has a top owner, trainers in good form and he did win 1st time out last season but he is a very risky proposition here at odds on. The team are keen to take him on though fully aware he may win.
NUBE NEGRA was 5/10 in the grade 1 doom bar juvenile hurdle at the aintree festival in 2017. He showed decent form over hurdles last season without winnin. Looks a 2 miler where as many rivals look like they need further. Sharp track 2miles and ground suit.
Trainer won this race last year and is in form. Prominent racing style is suited to the track. Was 6th of 14 in the scottish champion hurdle when last seen.
Likely to improve greatly this season as a 5/6yo and should improve for fences.
The fav may find it hard to peg him back at this trip on a sharp track especially if he makes as many errors over fences as he did over hurdles.
Looks a decent opportunity for TEAM SKELTON to upset the odds on fav.I already am a backer of GHAIYYATH at 16.5 (1/3 of stake) as clearly stated on page 3 of this thread?
Im cut from a different cloth to many on here. I feel no need to pretend I layed off for a profit or got a better price than I actually did in order to try and feel important around total randoms off the internet. I say what I think simple as.
Im on at 16.5 and have confidence in the horses ability though am honest enough to admit this weeks stable form from appleby is offputting. Im hoping Appleby can find some form. Im likely to stick with the bet however for a number of reasons.
The draw in a 12 runner race over 1m 4f isnt overly important. Its not as if its a sprint race and early position is everything. Would have preffered a low draw for GHAIYYATH but no excuses for him just because he is drawn widest.
With Longchamp currently soft going and 3 straight days of rain to come with racing taking place on saturday as well as sunday then it looks highly likely to be heavy ground for the arc.
This is a major negative for WALDGEIST
Its a potential worry for ENABLE
If SOTTSASS has stamina doubts then the doubts become greater on heavy and his turn of foot is blunted.
MAGICAL has 2yo form on heavy was 2nd in a group 1 .
JAPAN won his maiden on heavy.
GHAIYYATH has never ran on heavy though his mother won the irish 1000 guineas by 6 lengths on heavy.Heavy ground plays into the already strong hands of JAPAN and GHAIYYATH whom if he can get a lead on this surface may never come back to them.
The team are in no doubt Ghaiyyath has thr ability to win the arc but as the race approaches and trainers form is studied closely then it has to be a worry at present. All worries can be put to bed over the next few days or the worry can increase and become a major issue.
If you are able to champion a horses good points then its only fair that you point out a possible negative point.
Up to now trainer form wasnt on my radar it was all about horses form but as the race approaches it becomes more important and has become a possible issue for me. A good punter is never afraid to change his mind. I havent changed my mind YET and have faith in the horses ability but if the stable are wrong and dont show me any positives over the next 3 days racing then I am out.JAPAN moves in from 8/11 to 8/15 and GHAIYYATH moves out from 5/4 to 13/8.
No idea why you think this is strange Jack?
Current trainer 2 week form:
GOSDEN 11/38 (29%) – ENABLE
O’BRIEN 7/52 (13%) – JAPAN/MAGICAL
ROUGET 8/17 (47%) – SOTTSASS
APPLEBY 0/10 (0%) – GHAIYYATH
FABRE 5/31 (16%) – WALDEGEISTIts a worry for Ghaiyyath I say it as it is. Why would I pretend otherwise?
The form of the Charlie Appleby yard is starting to become a major worry for GHAIYYATH.
Appleby is a high strike rate trainer but hasnt had a winner for 18 days now. In the last 2 weeks he has had horses beaten at 1/2, 15/8, 8/15, EVS, 6/5 etc.I was aware of the trainers form but its getting worse by the day and now officially has got the team worried. He only has 1 runner today in a nursery, fingers crossed it can win and ease the teams nervousness on this stable.
Appleby has 8 group entries in france on friday, saturday and sunday. Clutchung at straws sometimes trainers form will dip before major racing festivals as they concentrate all effort on the big race runners.
If we dont see wins and especially if LINE OF DUTY the heavy odds on fav for the Prix Dollar gets beat then this team are bailing on Ghaiyyath. Decision to be made saturday evening and if he hasnt had a winner by saturday we are out. Fingers and toes crossed for team appleby over the coming days.
Following a huge cash bet off a sumo wrestler from Osaka on JAPAN i have had no other option but to revise my ‘True’ book.
JAPAN 8/11 (TO TAKE THE TEAM TO HEAVEN)
GHAIYYATH 5/4 (TO SHOW THEM THE DOOR)
ENABLE 9/1
WALDGEIST 25/1
50/1 BAR
The giant ONURBIKE will need this 1st run back and the sharp track doesnt play to his strengtgs.
DAY OF ROSES carries 12 stone and is on a lifetime high mark, he also wont like the ground.
The ground will be a problem for MAX O.
Twiston Davies is in good form with 6 winners from last 18 runners but he is 0/12 with his chasers over the last 3 years.
BALLYART makes no appeal at odds on on his 1st start for 6 months. He didnt show much on his chasing debut when last seen. He has been unplaced on 6 of his 7 starts under rules with the only decent run coming on heavy at chepstow in atrocious conditions.The favourite looks to be priced up on trainers/jockeys reputation but it is KATY PRICE who is the superior trainer of chasers. she boasts an 18% strike rate over fences compared to nigels 15%(last 5 years). She is an up and coming trainer who knows how to train a chaser. she also has a 20% strike rate at bangor with her chasers.
ITSAMANSLIFE showed great ability to win on his chase debut. The two runs after were not so good but the better ground was against him and he was in need of a rest.
Todays mark should be within range and if ‘Killer’ Katie Price has this horse fit enough to do himself justice thenhe should win. 3m on a sharp track and soft ground will suit this prominent racer and he shoudl have plenty more to come this season as a 6/7yo. Looks a great opportunity for a win today.
