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If he’s to go from the front he will need to be some horse to win.
When you are by Dubawi out of a Galileo classsic winning mare, you have the outstanding performance figures in the book and the clock backs it up, you are ready to peak and explode in the arc at a course you have already won 2 group races at and your multiple group 1 winning jockey cannot hide his adoration of the horse he calls THE MONSTER then perhaps it would be fair to assume that ‘yes this is indeed some horse’ that you are dealing with.
Potato, it’ll be fair to assume he’s a monster when he proves it at the top level, with all due respect to German racing, it is not top level.
As much as i take times into consideration, they aren’t the be all + end all. Front running performances can be very good on the clock, but hard to replicate when against better opposition, which it obviously will be.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Im genuinely UNABLE (pardom the arc related pun) to confidently say if you are joking or being serious Ham.
I think we need to let the horse do the talking as Ghaiyyath might need ear plugs if Potato starts singing his praises too loud
LOL ( You almost love him as much as I do Potato 
) and it’s what I meant when I said I would love Ghaiyyath to win this and finally get the recognition he deserves.He is ready to take the leap of faith and storm home on Sunday.
Agree with Potato that Japan is the big danger here (but not at those odds) and also Waldgeist.. but if Enable makes history I will be over the moon for her to have beaten these tough colts…
so come on Ghaiyyath polish up those golden horseshoes and show them a sparkling turn of foot on Sunday
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Possibly Nagano Gold here for me at a massive price. Trainer says he will need a strong pace and probably could have done with a bigger field to ensure that. That said his Royal Ascot run after been broadsided at the start was impressive and he had his excuses the last day (slow pace) but hopefully that has put him spot on.
Nagano Gold @ 80/1 with Hills
Coolmore & Gosden aren’t bothering with pacemakers that’s how confident they are of using Ghaiyyath as nothing more than that
Loved the big break and easy lead against trees in Germany, be swallowed up with a furlong to go in a proper race.
True odds:
5/4 JAPAN
11/8 GHAIYYATH
13/2 ENABLE
12/1 WALDGEIST
25/1 BARIf that is your “true odds”, Potato; then:
5/4 = a chance of 44.4%
11/8 = 42.1%
13/2 = 13.3%
12/1 = 7.7%
44.4 + 42.1 + 13.3 = 99.8%
44.4 + 42.1 + 13.3 + 7.7 = 107.5%
Someone’s “True odds” means all the field need to add up to 100%.Adding just three of your horses up makes 100% (well, 99.8%). Four horses adds up to more than 100%, with many other horses to be added on to that 107.5% in your 25/1 bar.
Value Is EverythingFollowing a huge cash bet off a sumo wrestler from Osaka on JAPAN i have had no other option but to revise my ‘True’ book.
JAPAN 8/11 (TO TAKE THE TEAM TO HEAVEN)
GHAIYYATH 5/4 (TO SHOW THEM THE DOOR)
ENABLE 9/1
WALDGEIST 25/1
50/1 BAR
I’ve backed Japan at 10’s was also on at 20’s in a couple of doubles which went west and I’ll be cheering him on. You can’t write off an Aidan O’Brien horse fully as some seem to have done on this thread, that man is a genius and can improve a horse no end and who’s to say this hasn’t been the plan from day 1, Japan has never won the Arc before. He has progressed as the season has gone on and will again imo. Will it be good enough to beat Enable.?? Possibly if Enable is on an off day, it happens even Gosden/Dettori get it wrong from time to time but who would begrudge Enable winning this, certainly not me. Head says Japan, heart says Enable.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Think Enable will most likely win, however history as Potato points out is against her. Crystal Ocean ( now not going ) and Japan has form which ties very closely with Enable and probably represents value. I went with CO anti post
and if I could would change to Japan. My other bet on Blast one-piece is more hopeful than confident 
Don’t know if I’ll have another bet it would depend on if I’ve any spare cash. And then on Japan to win.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.@homersimpson If you clocked my post from yesterday Homer, we are singing from the same Hymn sheet.
We might need some devine intervention, but you never knowMy heart wants Enable to go into the history books, she really deserves it. To me there are only two horses i fear and they are Japan and Ghaiyyath the reasons for which have already been said in this thread.
Enable is already a heroine in my eyes having accomplished so much, only horse in history to do the Arc/ Breeders Cup Classic in the same season. Whatever the outcome it will be one of the great races for sometime.
All comers, all ground, all beaten
The form of the Charlie Appleby yard is starting to become a major worry for GHAIYYATH.
Appleby is a high strike rate trainer but hasnt had a winner for 18 days now. In the last 2 weeks he has had horses beaten at 1/2, 15/8, 8/15, EVS, 6/5 etc.I was aware of the trainers form but its getting worse by the day and now officially has got the team worried. He only has 1 runner today in a nursery, fingers crossed it can win and ease the teams nervousness on this stable.
Appleby has 8 group entries in france on friday, saturday and sunday. Clutchung at straws sometimes trainers form will dip before major racing festivals as they concentrate all effort on the big race runners.
If we dont see wins and especially if LINE OF DUTY the heavy odds on fav for the Prix Dollar gets beat then this team are bailing on Ghaiyyath. Decision to be made saturday evening and if he hasnt had a winner by saturday we are out. Fingers and toes crossed for team appleby over the coming days.
The most enthusiastic person on TRF tempering enthusiasm about Ghaiyyath wow! I thought he was a 5/4 shot at 16.13 yesterday??
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!In Japan bets can’t be placed until Sunday morning (Japan time) but I’m fairly certain Enable will be the heavy favorite followed by Japan (thanks in part to his name if course), Fierement, Blast Onepiece, Sottsass and then Kiseki, Magical and Waldergeist. Connections for the Japanese invaders are talking up their chances but I suspect they’re being encouraged to do so by the Japan Racing Association (JRA) which makes a killing on this race every year the Japanese horses fail – and this year will be no exception I think. I intend to make a killing myself by betting against them. Enable on top of a trio formation with Sottsass, Japan and Waldgeist should pay well here in Japan (fingers crossed). I’ll throw in Ghaiyyath (I’m skeptical but he’s scary) and Magical for insurance and the worst I should do is break even.
The team are in no doubt Ghaiyyath has thr ability to win the arc but as the race approaches and trainers form is studied closely then it has to be a worry at present. All worries can be put to bed over the next few days or the worry can increase and become a major issue.
If you are able to champion a horses good points then its only fair that you point out a possible negative point.
Up to now trainer form wasnt on my radar it was all about horses form but as the race approaches it becomes more important and has become a possible issue for me. A good punter is never afraid to change his mind. I havent changed my mind YET and have faith in the horses ability but if the stable are wrong and dont show me any positives over the next 3 days racing then I am out.JAPAN moves in from 8/11 to 8/15 and GHAIYYATH moves out from 5/4 to 13/8.
No idea why you think this is strange Jack?
Current trainer 2 week form:
GOSDEN 11/38 (29%) – ENABLE
O’BRIEN 7/52 (13%) – JAPAN/MAGICAL
ROUGET 8/17 (47%) – SOTTSASS
APPLEBY 0/10 (0%) – GHAIYYATH
FABRE 5/31 (16%) – WALDEGEISTIts a worry for Ghaiyyath I say it as it is. Why would I pretend otherwise?
LOL 
( You almost love him as much as I do Potato 
) and it’s what I meant when I said I would love Ghaiyyath to win this and finally get the recognition he deserves.
Jac
and if I could would change to Japan. My other bet on Blast one-piece is more hopeful than confident 
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