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Speaking afterwards, Buick said: “He’s a monster, an absolute monster. Let’s hope that he’ll be around for a while. He’s an amazing horse.
“For one reason or another, he disappointed in the Prix Ganay but Charlie has always been adamant that Ghaiyyath will stay a mile and a half and he showed that today.”
Appleby added:“You had to give that a ‘wow’ didn’t you?
“Wherever you are in the world to win a Group 1 by 14 lengths in the manner he did is incredible. He’s a very exciting horse and there are discussions to be had about having a tilt at the Arc with him now.
“I have to give a lot of thanks to His Highness Sheikh Mohammed as he has always believed in the horse as much as we have and given us the confidence to give him the time between his races. Off the back of today I think this is the starting point of getting the rewards and paying back that patience.”
He added: “We were disappointed last time in the Prix Ganay but the winner, Waldgeist, has run well in an Arc before and the second that day, Study Of Man, won the French Derby the previous season, so you have to take that into account, as he may have run a bit flat backing up after such a good run first time out this season too.”
It’s stating the bleedin obvious that it’s hard to see past Enable but this race
can be a bit of a street fight and I’m not sure I want to lump on at 8/11. I’m in
agreement with FinalFurlong that Mehdaayih isn’t without chance.
I thought she was impressive winning the Cheshire Oaks, and 7th doesn’t tell the
story in the Oaks where she couldn’t have found more trouble if she tried. She
hasn’t run a bad race in the last 6 and Gosden isn’t sending her here to be down
the field. 40/1 E/W NRNB with Skybet is way too big.“Its actually easy to see both Magical and Waldgeist being unplaced in an arc. Just watch the 2018 running.”
Potato watch the last 2 furlongs again you’ll see Waldgeist’s run was checked.If Enable is going to win and win well then based on that run and the King George run its hard not seeing Waldgeist being placed granted luck with ground/draw.
Potato – Only one winner of the arc in the last 15 years was a 3yo who had never raced against there elders prior to the arc. That was Hurricane Run trained by ‘The Master’ Andre Fabre.
Sottass looks horribly underpriced bearing this in mind.
Rail Link is another in the last 15 years to do so?
Are you telling me Treve won the Arc first time up because she had raced against older fillies in the Vermeille? Or Danedream because he raced against older trees in Germany? Stats are fair and well but only if they make sense.
Oh so he did. Its not a stupid statistic at all. Its a new experiebce taking on your battle hardened elders for the first time especially to do in a race as tough as the arc.
You should always be slightly cautious with horses racing against elders first time (at any level), they quite often need that run for experience.
It is a negative for sottsass that he has never had this experience.Just because you dont understand this concept does not make it irrelevant.
Every trainer in every country both flat and NH would tell you there is always a worry with a younger inexperienced horse taking on their elders for the first time and its a significant stepping stone in a horses career. Nobody is suggesting that it cant be done as history will show you countless examples of it being done but the fact is SOTTSASS comes here lacking experience and the Arc is clearly a tough race to learn in.
On top of Sottsass lacking any experience of racing against his elders and his lesson coming in one of the toughest group 1s in the world.
Sottsass is a doubtful stayer on pedigree of 1m 4f. His fans will point to his win in the 5 runner Prix Niel and the fact it was ran in a fast time. This is a completely different kettle of fish and the arc will be ran at a blinding pace right from the off and probably on testing ground. Its different at group 1 level against elders and in a big field.
Even if he does stay he found traffic in a 5 runner group 2. If he finds traffic in a field this size in the arc then he is bang in trouble.Sottsass is not a horse for me at skinny odds for a trainer who is traditionally unlucky in this race.
I understand the concept fine, i just don’t agree with it especially when were talking about an Arc and a runner who’s run 6 times showing improved form as he goes along.
3YOs certainly win their fair share of Eclipse & King George’s on first attempt against their elders for it not to be an issue also.
How many have tried to win it as decent odds with no prep against Elders? That is the key to this stat being worth it’s salt.
Nobody suggested you hadnt mentioned the potential stamina issue?
I stated my own opinion on the horse and why I feel he is vastly underpriced.
The so called Coffin boxes no longer exist with only 12 runners and that could still drop yet. A low draw is still an advantage even with 12 runners but it is no longer the be all and end all in a field this size.
Enable , Enable , Enable …
It’s all about Enable .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well Mehdaayih didn’t make it to post, but no harm done as the 40/1 was NRNB with
Skybet. This looks even easier now for Enable, certainly there will be no excuses
with a maximum 12 going to post. Ghaiyyath looks a very decent sort if he brings
his top form from Baden-Baden to here. I had more or less decided it’s a race that
I’ll sit back and enjoy, but with 12 runners and some big odds still out there, I’ve
had a rush of blood to the head and I’m having an e/w on Nagano Gold at 80/1
(boosted to 92.5/1 by Willie Hills). I’m not kidding myslef that he’s a likely winner,
but he does run on well at the end of his races, and he should have won the Hardwicke
at Ascot but for an awful start where he was badly hampered and didn’t get a run two out
before finishing like a train. He had a bit of a break and ran well enough last time out
in 3rd in a Gp2 at Deauville. If he needed that he should at least be ready for this. If
he was trained by just about anyone else in the field he would still be an outsider, but
half that price. If he sneaked 3rd I’d be delighted.Not a race I bet on too often, but thought that I’d take a chance on Anthony Van Dyck. Didn’t run too badly last time, and he looks a fair price for a Derby Winner.
Anthony Van Dyck 33’s EW NRNB
Sitting quietly by the river on this one as I can’t see further than Ghaiyyath
and said all that was needed on P.2 of this Thread.Great to read Will Buick’s article in Racing Post and get a feel of how confident he is that this fella will run a big race I’ve loved Ghaiyyath since I first set eyes on him as a 2yo at Newmarket when he won his maiden there beating Proschema.
Took the 33’s as soon as he romped home in Baden Baden and that has now tumbled to 12’s’, but for me it’s not about the money I want to see this horse get the recognition he truly deserves and this could mean denying Enable her 3rd Arc.
Last year Enable was lucky to survive the late run of of ill fated Sea Of Class, this year she may not have the speed to match or catch a runaway Goliath in Ghaiyyath.
Looking forward to this one.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Its going to be an incredible horse race that is likely to go down as one of the best arcs ever. What an amazing price you have jac at 33/1. Im delighted to have just half those odds.
Ghaiyyatyh cost 1.1 million euros as a foal. He has the ultimate racehorse pedigree with Dubawi as his father and Galileo as his granddaddy. Fascinating horse who has already won 2 group races at Longchamp. The defeat to Waldgeist can be forgotten as the run came too soon. He has passed every other test with flying colours and what he did stepped up to 1m 4f for the first was breathtaking at Baden Baden. He is timeforms highest rated horse in the race and can be expected to improve again in the arc on only his 2nd start over this trip. This is a phenomenal horse and I cant wait to see what he can do from the front here.
Japan has arc winners flowing through his blood. He has looked simply sensational and passed every test with flying colours. The strength of his performance to beat Crystal Ocean in the Juddmonte over an unsuitably short trip on a speed track was absolutely sensational form. This is a racehorse who has passed every test with flying colours since the derby and is progressing fast and looks ready to peak in the arc.
Enable is a big opponent but she should be scared of what she is facing this time. I will be surprised if she can do this but good for her if she can.
These two short videos are worth a look on the two heavyweight contenders.
https://youtu.be/7x8kWiEP1fs (ghaiyyath)
https://youtu.be/SyGt4tpnVUc (Japan)
True odds:
5/4 JAPAN
11/8 GHAIYYATH
13/2 ENABLE
12/1 WALDGEIST
25/1 BARGhaiyyath looked very good at Baden Baden- Timeform liked it etc. but the simple facts are he has beat so far:
Proschema rated 104, now hurdling.
Dream Today rated 93, Flag of Honour 117 (over staying trips not a mile)
Sacred Life rated 112 now in USA probably a dubious rating.
Soleil Marin, cant see a rating for him but hasn’t won since in G3s.
Donjah, by 14Ls. Hasn’t done a thing, but he hammered him.Visually he’s been impressive when he’s won there’s no doubt and i agree Potato, him and Japan (possibly Sottsass) are the potentialy flies in the ointment. However, the form on Ghaiyyath really doesn’t stack up yet at all. If he’s to go from the front he will need to be some horse to win.
As for your pricing Potato, wow!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
and said all that was needed on P.2 of this Thread.
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