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My system qualifiers are:-
Gleneagles (10.1)
Intilaaq (10.05)
Moheet (9.7)
Ol’ Man River (10.25)
Room Key (10.1)My system could be vulnerable if there were to be fast ground, a smaller field than historically, and a lack of pace. Ie if the race turned into a test wholly of speed rather than speed/stamina. I’ve not yet analysed the likely pace of the race. Here I share my research on Gleneagles from a breeding perspective:-
The chink in the favourite’s armour is that his damsire is Storm Cat. Storm Cat’s progeny tend toward being precocious. Ie they may be better at 2, not train on at 3. Consider in Guineas history 2004. AOB’s One Cool Cat sent off at 15/8 favourite, warm stable vibes and all, trails in 13th of 14. His sire – Storm Cat.
Now, Gleneagles’ sire is of course Galileo. Like all Sadlers Wells, an influence for progression with age. And the dam You’resothrilling is a full sister to Giant’s Causeway (2000) who enjoyed an illustrious 3yo campaign. The balancing factors there are the presence of Rahy and Roberto in the pedigree. So plenty of influences for progression. But, in the genetic lottery, the possible influence of Storm Cat is still present. Consider You’resothrilling herself. Her finest hour came in winning the Cherry Hinton as a juvenile. At 3 she raced twice albeit at the highest level but was unplaced. So the favourite does carry a small risk that he may not have trained on. From that perspective one might hope that Gleneagles may be more like his sire. Though there the risk would be that he’d be tapped for toe on fast ground with a lack of pace. AOB has said that Gleneagles reminds him of Giant’s Causeway. Which leans towards speed but also of course to the risk that, like the dam perhaps, like One Cool Cat for sure, Gleneagles may not have trained on/ progressed from 2 to 3/ not to the extent of other rivals.
Suspect Laddies have been talking to the owners rep. Teddy G will probably play down Sea Moon’s chance on The Morning Line and say they’re worried about the ground.
With Mike Dillon’s Coolmore connection, could also be significant they’re top price on Seville.
Seems I have no chance of a winner.
I shouldn’t worry about them standing out on Seville – so long as their press ads banner headline ‘Sea Moon 2/1’ draws in enough revenue, they’ll still have Seville running for them. I’ll never forget how the Rock of Gibraltar guineas was stitched up. Laddies stood 10s that day – Hawk Wing the cash cow favourite.
I could follow with a ‘market making’ point here but let’s just say AOB admits they’d not done much with Seville before the Voltigeur; the pace was stop start that day but today there are two pacemakers into a bit of a headwind so totally diferent kettle. I now see some value. I’ll be with the sponsors.
Blue Bunting has speed enough to win a Classic over 8 furlongs, and stamina enough to win a Classic, and another well-contested all-aged Group 1, over 12 furlongs. She is still progressing judged by the the way she beat Banimpire and Wonder Of Wonders in the Yorkshire Oaks. Each of her wins has been only by a length or less, which looking only at the positive side, indicates a filly who is determined and tough. I think she has all the attributes to win the St Leger.
They say she’s gone in her coat – like a ‘hyena’
She couldn’t be called the freshest – a long season. Good filly if she wins.The market looks about right to me – ie no value
Sea Moon, being 3 parts Brian Boru, will stay the extra 2f beyond the Voltigeur trip. But for the presence of Seville in the Voltigeur one might have asked was that a particularly strong group 2. But Seville’s top class Im4f form appears progressive in that he turned the tables on Treasure Beach in France.
Seville was never going to have the gears to win over 1m4f at the highest level. Being Galileo/Silver Hawk/Niniski he was born a Cup horse, another Yeats maybe. Might even lack the toe for 1m6f. A strong pace, rain and a driving headwind, slow times earlier on the card and maybe. Any factors making it a dour slog, no gears required.
The Brown Panther/ Masked Marvel/ Census muddly form line is what it is – Group 3 class. Yes Census looks like the one who might be progressive out of this rank but I can’t have any of them.
The big imponderable is attempting to assess the relative merits of the fillies v the colts this classic generation. Dettori described himself as ‘nervous’. Which isn’t something you often hear him say. Godolphin do seem to have an increasing fondness for the staying types. I think Blue Bunting likely to get 1m6f but I’d be less confident of her doing so than Sevile or Sea Moon. Also, particularly in The Oaks, I’m not entirely convinced by her running style – seems to run in snatches a little. So, despite the fillies allowance feel she might get out-toughed by Seville and Sea Moon.
Sea Moon seems the most likely winner but 2/1 would be a shade too short I’d say and place only Seville might be more attractive particular if a strong headwind materialises.
From a breeding standpoint there’s one candidate that jumps off the page and grabs you.
Old Vic’s 2 out of the last 3 years (Comply or Die; Don’t Push It)
The Damsire is Montelimar (sire of Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter)
What Montelimar adds over Alleged (damsire of Don’t Push It) is that Montelimar is Alleged bred to a LeFabeleaux mare. That’s a concentration of the Rabelais bloodline. Which is the very story of National breeding.
You find more Rabelais bloodlines on the dam’s side through LeBavard and Vulgan. Sires who turn up on the dam’s side of Numbersixvalverde.
Reading the form through the prism of this perfect stamina laden National Pedigree, one sees that the history of the form since a keeping on 3rd in a 3m1f Gd 1 aged 7, after which it was rated 169, is that of running over inadequate trips.
Now rated 141 as a consequence, it gets as stone and 5 lbs from it’s 3 parts brother yet is at least 10 times the price.
It’s the National, I can’t say it WILL win, but it’s certainly bred to do the job, looks thrown in to me, and is unquestionably a generous price –
Dessie Hughes’s In Compliance
NH not really my code but may have a dabble tomorrow and would like some assistance please on what might be some shaky theory on just one point – the rate of deterioration of the 3 former winners.
I think we might say the shape of the market ‘contains’ this stat about no horse 10 or older since whenever. Bare stats will always stand to trip you up.
And on the longevity issue we know that, whilst yes there is general deterioration with age, some horses will improve their ratings as veterans and some horses can go on performing competitively until 13, 14, 15 even.
I think there are 3 factors – genetics, constitution and manner of training.
Genetics – I don’t think anyone would dispute that some families are ‘late maturing’. Given time I could probably isolate a late maturing/longevity gene. Pity. I have the impression that french breds, such as KS, tend to mature quickly and not make for good veterans. Would anyone concur?
Constitution – I’d venture to suggest, all other things being equal, that horses more about stamina have a greater tendancy toward longevity. We all know as a general proposition that with age speed wanes and stamina increases. Beyond 10 vitality may be a key factor as a big, strong athletic type without vitality may just become a slow plodding lump but generally there’s likely to be a correlation between stamina and longevity?
Manner of training – Principally, I suppose, miles on the clock.
I think all these factors point to a tentative conclusion that Denman (22 starts) is likely to make for a more effective 11yo than Kauto Star (36 starts).
Long Run’s jumping looks to have improved and I think there’s enough stamina in the pedigree to not have too much concern over it getting the trip. Ok it’s only 6 but it’s another french bred and they mature early, right? But how good was this year’s King George? Part of the answer lies in how far KS has deteriorated now it’s a veteran.
I had a quick look at the times for the last 3 runnings. 2008 was the slowest winning time. You might say Denman’s clocked pretty similar times the last 3 runnings. Was 2008 the slowest going? Like a fast pace, and the wind op, rain would help Denman’s chances.
A fascinating renewal and for sure a changing of the guard year but are the young pretenders ready/good enough? Anyone who just ruled a line through aged 10 and over may discover they got found out by an oversimplification.
The thing to recall about Arakan is that 2009 was his first crop of 2 year olds. AWD figures are always artificially low at this stage in a sire’s record.
Arakan (USA) br h 2000 Nureyev (USA) b 1977 8.1 Northern Dancer (CAN) b 1961 10.5
Special (USA) b 1969
Far Across b 1996 Common Grounds b 1985 8.0
City Ex 1986Yes Arakan was a 7f specialist in running (up to G3 level and 2 wins at York) but DT has already trumped his sire’s record in terms of class. That suggests to me the bloodline is complex.
Before I leave Arakan, we can see from the pedigree above that a Nureyev/Common Grounds cross is perhaps likely to produce a 7f performer. What we don’t see is the heavy doses of stamina from grandam City Ex’s sire Ardross and damsire The Minstrel. If you wish to believe Arakan can produce horses who stay further than he did himself that’s where you’d be looking.
Dick Turpin’s dam Merrily is by Sharrood (11.0) so some hope in that awd figure. The 2nd damsire So Blessed was a sprinter and all speed on the male line. Some stamina on the dam’s side though including Arc winner Djebel. No official AWD figure for So Blessed. (I do have an old record with an AWD of 11.3! for So Blessed but wouldn’t want to rely on it).
Going back to 3rd, 4th, 5th damsires, there’s Charlottesville (French Derby), Vilmorin (damsire of Queens Hussar) and Mon Talisman (1927 Arc) so a fair weight of middle distance sturdiness in the female tail.
Can Dick Turpin be as good at 1m2f as at a mile? I wouldn’t discount the possibility. Would I bet on it?, today, against a strong field of older horses many of whom stay middle distances? I don’t think I would.
As Hannon says, Dick Turpin stays in training next year. My guess would be that he’ll have a better chance of staying 1m2f as a four year old. Not totally out of the question for today though.
I want a Sans Frontieres victory, I really like him in the Melbourne Cup.
You’d have to think this was a good Group 3 to think he had a chance worth less then around 25s in that on the strength of this form.
I don’t think it was that good a Group 3. It was just a return for KiteWood. Saptapadi might prove better than the price he drifted to but the rest might be much of a muchness.
Slightly off thread but not at all really – engendering a bit of form interest for tomorrow-
Profound Beauty’s form ties in to the Geoffrey Freer tomorrow. Not just because the Saptapadi tie up in the Curragh Cup form but through PB’s conquerer there, Tactic, ties in Kite Wood who beat Tactic over this sort of trip last year then beat AOA in the renewal of the Geoffrey Freer last year.
I note that Saptapadi got eyeballed at Sandown. He’d been a monkey at the start that day. And maybe it was a bit of bad attitude, temperament in Ireland.
You could read the Henry II as if he lacked a bit of toe close home at 2miles. By Indian Ridge though. (Which also means maybe a little rain won’t inconvenience). And comes here in preference to York’s Lonsdale Cup midweek over 2miles.
It did have a chance at Group 2 Level yet doesn’t have a G2 penalty.
Trying to compare CC and STS is folly – different type of horse altogether.
The Rock of Gibraltar comparison is a better one.
I see Goldikova and Paco Boy are set fair to renew rivalry in France. And that Hannon, with the latter, at the moment at least, is open to a long avoided return to the Breeders Cup.
I agree that the only sensible positive reading of Ballydoyle’s season is that they’ve pursued a strategy of looking to the Autumn. It’s something that, essentially, Godolphin have done for a while. Doesn’t mean it bears fruit though.
There’s perhaps some increasing premium on stud value with a Breeders Cup victory in a cv? I’ve not done the research. Although for sure the event has grown in my own consciousness over the last 5 years. Increased media coverage, increasing internationalisation of racing etc.
Europe (or should we say Great Britain and Ireland) should do well, then, come November at Churchill Downs.
The Breeders Cup, a little like golf’s Ryder Cup, does have that frisson of transantlantic international rivalry. Unlike, of course, that farce of an event just about to kick-off at Ascot which should be dropped from the calendar immediately.
You omitted to mention, Fist, that RVW also has an entry in the Irish Champion. So after today 2 entries at a mile and 2 entries in more prestigious/valuable 1m2f races.
Last year’s Sussex looks weaker than this year’s? We know Paco Boy didn’t act on the track so it’s best not to read that relative form literally. Last year’s heat lacked a 3yo with the Group 1 mile profile of CC.
Mick Kinane’s piece in the Post yesterday was interesting. He wasn’t directly comparing CC with Rock of Gibraltar but the implication was there. I see comparison in the way the two horses cruise up on the bridle then it’s over in a second as the jockey opens up another gear.
For sure it’s tricky to place much store in what AOB says. I’ve seen him say before a horse will improve for the race then win. He says the same of RVW and Beethoven.
Taken at face value you might conclude Coolmore have waved the white flag over CC. Just run horses that need the race in prep for some other target behind Hannon’s colt.
The presence of Encompassing (again) as pacemaker might be some evidence in the other direction. If you’re essentially riding work in public and picking up a bit of place money you don’t need a pacemaker.
Quite how team AOB are seeing the race determines how you read it. How could you get CC beat here if that is your aim. Richard Hughes interviewed on RP website seemed rather worried about, from his draw, potentially suffering traffic problems getting round Encompassing and Beethoven. I can see that because if you can make CC have to switch out of a pocket at the right moment you could get it unbalanced too.
In todays Post Hannon is quoted as saying he doesn’t want a muddling pace as a strong one will help CC settle. Hold on I thought it did just settle now anyhow?.
I think both RVW and Beethoven are 1m2f horses. So they need a strong pace over a mile. I think the only way to ‘have’ CC is to stretch it, forge a blistering pace, in the hope you can blunt it’s gears.
A crawl very early in the hope CC might not settle then pedal to the metal, lay it right down to the 3yo. Box it in round the 2f marker, make it switch for a run and try to unbalance it and by this time one of your more stamina laden 3 has first run on Hughes’s mount. If, that is, team AOB are bothered.
Even that might not work, even if you got all the components right. CC might have too much class and too much speed regardless.
Premio Loco is not without hope. You don’t stump up the £19.5K for nothing. Clearly acts on the track and is progressive. I don’t think the Summer Mile reads as a weak Group 2. You just wonder if it’s progressive enough at 6yo to step up to win a Group 1 against the Champion 3yo miler elect.
Dream Eater is now a miler. And one who needs a strong pace. The pacemaker in the Summer Mile didn’t really do his job and a muddling pace ensued which I believe played to Premio Loco’s strengths. Off a strong pace I could see that form reversed.
I don’t historically like a 1m2f 3yo by the time of the Sussex. But I suppose O’Brien acheived that last year with RVW. Comparing the 2 reappearances in the SJP and the Queen Anne and the profiles generally the difference in the price between RVW and Beethoven is an error.
My play is to neither back nor lay CC outright but to attempt the forecast.
I’ll split stake between Dream Eater and Beethoven to fill the place.
It was a formula that worked very well for me in the summer when Rock of Gibraltar conquered all comers like Canford Cliffs can.
I think it’s more to do with which stable a big owner chooses to place a particular horse with.
As you’ll know, Prince Khalid has relationships with many trainers both here and in France. Good racing management, Teddy Grimthorpe for Abdhulla isn’t it, is, to my mind, about reading the horse’s breeding and placing each horse with the trainer who’s specialism best suits the horse’s hoped for career path.
Sir Michael has a reputation for unrivalled handling of a horse bred to mature gradually and peak at 4 or 5. Hence he’ll tend to be sent those types. It’s rather a chicken and egg, self fulfilling prophecy. You might look at Workforce, particularly given it’s size, and nod to yourself, yes, that’s why the Abdhulla team sent it to SMS.
In the King George (keeping it on thread) Abdhulla wasn’t wholly disappointed as Harbinger’s sire Dansili stands at his own Juddmonte Farms stud. If I’m right that Workforce could drop back to 1m2f this season the Juddmonte might seem like a good target. Having a Derby winner win the race you sponsor raises the profile of the race and thereby your breeding operation. Which of course was the whole point of sponsoring the race in the first place.
Relative to taking the race with Twice Over, Byword or Zacinto what a greater story Derby winner returns to glory in The Juddmonte would make. If I were the Prince or Teddy that’s the way I’d think of going.
The acting on the track factor is heightened by the presence in this year’s renewal of last year’s winner Rip Van Winkle.
Because that takes you straight to the fact he beat Hannon’s Paco Boy in this last year. Why isn’t Paco Boy renewing rivalry? Doesn’t like the track says Mr Hannon, doesn’t like the ‘ups and downs’. Goes to France instead.
Something they learnt last year in defeat?So – Rip Van Winkle. No track concerns there, it’s last year’s winner but – a Galileo miler?!? I think there are still, even at 4, questions over it’s optimum trip.
There are plenty speed influences on the dam’s side. The dam’s numbers look like an out an out miler but then you’d expect the Galileo influence to mean the optimum, especially as the horse strengthens up from 3 to 4, might be 1m2f. If you think Galileo stamps his stock. And further the description in last season’s Derby was that he was staying on toward the finish.
A weird profile. Just what is this horse’s trip this season? With entries in the Juddmonte and the Irish Champion connections clearly haven’t ruled out the prospect this is a 1m2f animal.
I do sometimes wonder I if tend to try to chuck bombs at the bombproof but..
Canford Cliffs is 4/6 on the strength of the Irish 2000 and SJP form but this isn’t The Curragh or Ascot, it’s Goodwood, where you need a particular type of horse – a well balanced one. All other things being equal, a horse with a history of hanging might not be a good bet at 4/6 at Goodwood.
My view of whether CC should in fact be 4/6 is centred around the theoretical question – ‘Why do horses hang?’. Anyone who can contribute to an understanding of that please do…
My hypothesis is – an unbalanced, inexperienced, injured horse running on jarring ground on an undulating track is the horse most likely to hang.
Next a quote from Richard Hannon reported on July 12th.
"Canford Cliffs has got a bit burly, I’d say and he is going to need some work this week. We wouldn’t want it very firm at Goodwood. We took him to France for the Morny and he came back jarred to hell. They hadn’t put any water on and the ground was rough and firm.
"The hill didn’t help him at Newmarket either but now he settles, he has a lovely turn of foot and has made up into a proper racehorse."
Hannon is here addressing the concern I’m raising – attempting to persuade himself perhaps.
He’s taken Dick Turpin out on the grounds ostensibly that the going is too firm but kept CC in. I think Hannon might be telling us that part of the reason for the hanging/veering across the track at Newmarket/Newbury was because CC was still feeling the effects physically or mentally of that last run at 2 in the Morny when he got jarred up. He’s over that now, settles, is more experienced and hence we didn’t see any weird steering antics in his last 2 runs.
What Hannon hasn’t said though is that CC is a well balanced horse. (Code I find for saying a horse will act on the track at Goodwood). Rather he’s expressed concerns about the track and admitted he’s allowed him to get burly – ie had a break and just come back into work.
What I wonder is – is it only an unbalanced horse who will ever hang? In other words you could have a horse who had all the other causal factors toward hanging mentioned earlier but if it’s a well balanced animal it wouldn’t hang regardless. Therefore, regardless of anything else, hanging = evidence of an unbalanced horse, a horse that wouldn’t be suited to Goodwood.
Of course reading a race is never about one horse – it’s a relative endeavour – and the rest of the field could be so limited that CC could win despite not acting on the track.
At 4/6 such a factor could make the difference between backing or laying. It’s clearly playing on Mr Hannon’s mind, I believe, despite the justifications.
I’m somewhat confused by what happened to Workforce yesterday; how can a horse run exceptionally well one day and so poorly another, even allowing for the fact that he ‘didn’t handle the ground’. Connections know their horse and knew what the ground was like yesterday. The first thing that sprung to mine was what John Francome often says about horses, ‘something’s hurting him’. Or, perhaps the ‘curse of the Derby winner’ has struck again, and we’d forgotten about it because of Sea the Stars last year [who was never going to win by much, but will remain as one of the most exciting horses I have ever seen].
My initial thoughts were along similar lines. Why did SMS run Workforce? I also asked myself if I were Stoutey and had the pleasant ‘problem’ of having both Harbinger and Workforce in my yard how would I manage that to satisfy both owner clients.
Anyone who viewed Harry Herbert’s pre race interview on the Racing Post website or the post race tv debrief couldn’t have failed to notice how much the King George means to him. This was Harbinger’s long term target and conditions were perfect. Despite Bering being the damsire his extending action means fast ground is ideal.
Many of us congratulated SMS on an amazing training performance to get Workforce ready in time for the Derby. But the fact remains he is still a relatively inexperienced horse. There are other targets for the Kings Best colt I’m sure. They ran him in the King Geroge for the experience? The Arc can be a scrum. You don’t throw an inexperienced horse in there.
I also think there might have been an element of ‘sighter’ last Saturday. The Epsom Derby, against your own generation, quite simply isn’t the same stamina test as a King George set up with an end to end gallop through the medium of Confront.
If I’m saying Workforce was there for the experience I have to be careful with this as clearly, if I’m right on that summation, Abdulla’s colt wouldn’t have been fully wound up on Saturday. But the way Workforce went backwards from the 2f marker I think the stamina doubts that some expressed before the Derby might be said to have resurfaced (particularly in the context of taking on the older horses).
Team Stoute made this a true test. Workforce went backwards from the 2f marker. Harbinger won going away. There’d been talk on here about Workforce as a St Leger candidate. The current entries for the two Stoute charges may mean little more than a symbolic snapshot but Harbinger = Irish Field St Leger (1m6f); Workforce = Juddmonte, Irish Champion (both 1m2f).
I think there is a case that you might drop Workforce back to 1m2f this season at least. Underfoot conditions are likely to be ideal in the Autumn. The Champion Stakes might be an alternative to the Arc? Separated by just 13 days this season you couldn’t run in both probably.
I think there’s a nice target for Harbinger at the Breeders Cup. I think it’s proper price for the Arc depends on the weather.
I didn’t think Workforce looked all over the place on Saturday nor did I have the impression he was hurting. I actually thought he seemed now to know what the game was about. For sure the history books show that you can leave a horse’s career behind at Epsom. It’s possible to floor/ruin a horse in the race. But I trust SMS not to have done that with Workforce. I believe it was a case of giving the horse experience and an element of measuring relative stamina vis a vis Harbinger in order to plan campaigns for the rest of the season.
I did think there was a degree of risk in running an inexperienced horse who might have suffered trauma either physical or mental in the Derby on ground at Ascot that may well have been firmer than he’d like but again I’m willing to trust that Sir Michael knows what he’s doing.
Workforce has the profile of a typical SMS improver. Don’t forget SMS will tell you a horse doesn’t reach the peak of it’s physical maturity and prowess until age 5. That’s particularly so for middle distance horses and stayers as they fill out toward the full extent of their natural stamina. Workforce, given the sheer size of it’s frame, has immense scope to become a true great.
These ridiculous marketing campaigns the racing authorities waste money on are nothing next to the impact a horse that captures the public’s imagination can have. I trust that for the good of the sport Mr Abdulla can see that the breeding shed can wait and that Workforce stays in training at 4 and 5. I quite fancy it for the 2011 Arc.
I’m a Viscount Nelson fan too.
But I was impressed by Beethoven’s reappearance in the St James Palace. First time back and didn’t look fit at all, at a time when AOB’s were definitely needing it, but still finished ahead of Makfi and Steinbeck.
Definitely expect it to come on for the run. Dewhust winners tend to be 1m2f horses and Oratorio x Sadlers Wells x Irish River says the same. And that it should be progressive. Coolmore have always thought a lot of it and I just sense something a little out of the ordinary about it. Still might need one more run to put it absolutely spot would be might slight concern but I’m theorising Beethoven as top candidate for their top 1m2f 3yo by season’s end.
