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I’m wanting something that I can make a case for it being substantially better than 3lb in. Yes, a couple of stone well in would be the sort of argument I’d be looking for.
Not far away in the 2007 St Leger when staying on and getting hampered, Macarthur took the Ormonde and the Hardwicke (on fast ground) the following year after which he was rated 119!
Now lurking off a mark of 97! is this really a has been gone to pot? One of the striking facts for me is that despite that St Leger performance, this son of Montjeu, ex Ballydoyle inmate, is yet to be tried over 2 miles! Aidan O’Brien did have him entered up for the 2008 Melbourne Cup though.
I’m summising here but I think why Coolmore cast him out and now he’s a gelding is that once full brother, Derby winning Motivator, establishes his fertility, Macarthur’s prospects at stud are severely limited. Same bloodline – why would you.
So he ends up lickety split round the tight turns of Dubai for Mike DeKock, some time off, then quietly a few ‘outpaced’ and ‘never troubling leaders’ runs back in England over what now looks undoubtedly an inadequate trip of 12f (did better at 14f) for the Chapple Hyams.
Ok sometimes a horse has just ‘gone’, maybe Mike DeKock ruined it, we don’t know, so you can’t have a hefty investment on a case like this but of course at 66/1 you don’t need to. I guarantee you there will be worse 66/1 shots than a Hardwicke winner just 2 seasons ago off a rating of 97. Sometimes the forgotten horse returns to glory. And I’ve not been alone in contracting it’s price on betfair tonight.
Profound Beauty has more of a Cup horse profile doesn’t she? Curragh Cup, Melbourne Cup that sort of race?
No Group 1 1m4f form in the book, yet at least. I read they’d left her in Saturday’s Pretty Polly as well as the Curragh Cup – which might have looked like a sighter for a speed trial and a crack at 1m4f prize – but having just checked the entries now she only holds the 1m6f option.
In a King George with an end to end gallop – maybe? Can’t see it myself though. The main target will be the Melbourne Cup won’t it?
It seems I have a system that works even if I didn’t manage to follow it.
I did keep on the right side of MG in my book. With Total Command and Monterey supported and positions closed my only negative position was the dog Alburj.
In hindsight I don’t know why I took a position on Monterey as I had more cons than pros. Supporters of Montjeu will hope that it was the ground not lack of stamina that found it out. Certainly, once under pressure, it didn’t seem to act and seemed to have a markedly round action.
I might try to transplant my system for answering will a 3yo stay 2m in other staying heats especially in that 3yo have a useful wfa advantage if you can find those that will get the trip.
I have played a structured backer’s lay of the front two with
Total Command
Alburj
MontereyI already have a 2 point margin on Total Command.
The front two will be weak. There’s good reason to oppose both.
…better
Moose Moran
Lemon Drop Kid x Desert Story
Another Kingmambo, Lemon Drop Kid stands at Will Farish’s in the States. Over here it’s highest rated representative is Bronze Cannon (Mark of Esteem) winner of the Hardwicke and the Jockey Club but not tried over further. That has a heavy dose of stamina out back though and Moose Moran doesn’t. On the dam’s side, the 2nd dam is the dam of El Prado (by Sadlers Wells) but seems to have imparted speed into it’s progeny. So it’s hard to see where the stamina is coming from.Corsica
Cape Cross x Persian Bold
An out and out 1m2f pedigree I’m, bravely, opposing it even though it’s Mark Johnston.Monterey has the highest SSI number. Remainder of field in descending SSI order.
Icon Dream
Sadlers Wells x Slip Anchor
The Sadlers Wells Slip Anchor cross has, most notably, produced The Great Gatsby(Ionian Sea) – 2nd in Kris Kin’s Derby, tried up to 1m7f at 3 but no win after it’s 2yo campaign – and Two Miles West(User Friendly) 2nd in The Queens Vase in 2004. This dam (Silver Skates) is no User Friendly though. She remained a maiden being 2nd last in Galileo’s Ballysax. No other progeny of note. There might be some hope that Icon Dream could step on it’s Chester Cup second improving for the longer trip in that the third damsire is Busted. But, whether out stayed, out classed or outbattled by TedSpread at Chester, you wouldn’ say it looked like a Cup horse in the making on that form.Magic Prospect
Miesques Son x Sillery
Having stood in America then France Miesques Son is not that well represented here. Being a brother to Kingmambo, it produces progressive types. But, largely, milers. Whipper (Guineas 5th and winner of Prix Jacques Les Marois) still did best at a mile despite being out of a Sadlers Well mare. Miesques Approval (With Approval) won the Breeders Cup Mile. No other representatives of the cross and the dam has produced nothing to date. The 4th dam did produce 8 Stakes horses from 9 runners so some evidence of class (and of stamina) on this dam’s side but not of Sadlers Wells type magnitude.Theology
Galileo x Mtoto
Not a cross that has produced much – a poor maiden and a banded 1m6f winner off a mark of 48. The SSI numbers of a Cup horse but nothing of note in the dam’s family and flashed it’s tail when winning it’s 1m4f Goodwood maiden in May.Alburj
Dynaformer x Theatrical
A cross with strong stamina numbers but which has produced nothing of note to date. The dam’s only other offspring with a racing record (By Rahy) won a 7f mdn at 2 beating Halfway to Heaven. The interesting part of the pedigree is that the 3rd dam was a sister to Champion US 2yo speed phenomenen Landaluce. Landaluce died before it’s 3yo campaign. The Hamdan breeding theory here looks like an attempt to marry the aspects of class, speed and precociousness in the Landaluce bloodline to stamina and progresiveness on the front end. Theatrical, and Dynaformer (being a Roberto) both impart progression and stamina. Whether such a recipe creates a Queens Vase horse, we’ll see.Troas
Dalakhani x Selkirk
An unraced dam with no other progeny. The second dam produced Carry The Flag an international Cup horse by Tenby and a winner of the Hardwicke and John Porter by Slip Anchor. Selkirk is obviously imparting less stamina than either of those sires. Adding Dalakhani on the front end adds a bit of stamina but probably not suficient for 2m at this juncture.Total Command
Sadlers Wells x Selkirk
A system non qualifier BUT. The interesting thing about the dam Wince (1000 Guineas, 1999) is that she has produced Total Command’s full sister Quiff who won the Yorkshire Oaks and was a staying on 2nd in the St Leger. Also full brother Arabian Gulf 2nd in the Chester Vase. So evidence the mating produces not only class but stamina in excess of what might be imagined on the numbers.Mikhail Glinka
Galileo x Mark of Esteem
The same cross as Kite Wood so another candidate who could be a Cup sort despite the presence of a miler at the front end. The dam is a full sister to Sir Percy so expect, perhaps, more class and more stamina than Kite Wood. Is it fit after the lay off is the big question. AOB reports it just ready to start back.Chink of Light
Dr Fong x Shirley Heights
The Dr Fong Shirley Heights cross has tended to produce 1m2f handicappers. This one’s full brother won a 2m Listed race at 3 but it was trained by Mark Johnston to do so. On balance you wouldn’t see a case for thinking it had a chance to improve past Chester Cup conquerer Icon Dream. The step up looks likely to suit that one[
Check out Weld’s ALBURJ who has good form lines through Unity to top grade Irish form (Grace O’Malley)Yes, in The Queens Vase. Just having a look at the race now.
Very little to go on with Alburj there in that the Hamdan Al Maktoum owned steps up from maiden company to a Group 3. Save of course breeding.
I note they had it in the Derby still at quite a late forfeit stage (my printout 3rd May). Same can be said of Chink of Light, Mikhail Glinka and Theology though.
If you want to extend the ‘sighter’ theory Unity is trained by Wachman who has Icon Dream in the Vase.
It’s not that off-topic to discuss the Vase a little here as, it being 2m for 3yo, you’d probably want something bred like it might contend the Gold Cup when 4 and older. Although if I discover anything worth writing about I’ll start a separate thread.
Easy to be wise after the event but, had I had time to post, my summary included the observation that Weld had a sighter on Age of Aquarius (AOA). The Weld trained Profound Beauty beat AOA last time out at Leopardstown.
I don’t think it’s safe to say Ask didn’t stay. It’s certainly bred to do so. Ok it’s first time up record is good but I think there’s a difference going to a middle distance race first time up against a Group 1 staying race. If they tried again next season with a prep I’d not be labeling it a non stayer at the trip. Stoute’s charge finished ahead of Kasbah Bliss and you’re not going to tell me that one doesn’t get 2m4f (see Prix Cadran). 7 is a funny age for a horse.
I can’t write off Age of Aquarius for the future either. Getting ‘slower’ as a horse ages isn’t the way to look at it at all. More it develops it’s inbred stamina. Cecil warned us it might come a year too soon for Manifest.Just look at where the other 4 year olds finished in relation to the older horses. Getting ‘slower’ as you age didn’t stop Rite of Passage. Or, of course, Yeats.
Only two 4yo winners this Century and of course whilst Yeats didn’t take in the race at 4, it is true to say it didn’t win it until aged 5.
bEETHOVEN looks soft behind. Nobles Promise shortened in th emarket also. I green screened.
I also think that before too long AOB will hand his son a big race win. Perhaps not today but at 100’s I’ve had a fun ‘kick myself if it wins’ bet. And Noble’s Promise.
If Makfi went 4s I’d have some of that too...erican breed trumps Europe on speed but would the market let an American challenger go off at 20’s in Ascot sprint. Miling still requires an element of speed.
Siyouni
Really muddling to read as the first 4 lines of pedigree are all speed yet it seemed to be doing it’s best work at the end in the French race before the French 2000. I don’t know the excuses for the French 2000 but although it beat Dick Turpin and Beethoven in France at 2, and I’ve found some stamina way back, I can’t fancy it on general profile at the prices.
Hearts of Fire
All speed on first three lines and in that it stayed further then it’s bred to at 2 I can’t help but think it was an early developer.
A quick summary to gather my own thoughts
I have deliberately avoided taking in media reports from interviews with connections.
I will start with team O’Brien. With 3 out of 9 you can dictate tactics, pace, if you want.
Steinbeck
I can’t have that Steinbeck is a miler. As a second crop sire Footstepsinthesand’s awd figures are, though rising, still artificially low. As a Giant’s Causeway Rainbow Quest cross the progeny median will eventually be around the 10 mark. The second damsire is Grundy – enormous stamina influence. Whilst the third damsire is Major Portion who, though the champion 3 year old miler in England of 1958, is nevertheless quite stoutely bred; the fourth is Ribot joint Arc winner of 1955 and 1956. Steinbeck has the highest speed-stamina index (SSI) figure in the race (meaning it has most stamina) and it looks to me all ends up likely better over 1m2f plus.
Beethoven
On the first two lines of the pedigree you’d say the same of Beethoven. But it does have some influence for speed on the dam’s side (Raise a Native, Bold Lad). Third highest SSI in the race, you’d expect it to get 1m2f eventually as Dewhurst winners tend to. Take a pause there – a Dewhust winner at 100/1 in a SJP. When did that last happen? Remember I’ve avoided any press content and no doubt the vibes are bad? I could understand that because I recall the sire Oratorio as a gross type who needed runs to get to peak condition. I know not if he imparts that physicality to his progeny in general or Beethoven in particular, but if it did look in the paddock like they’d got enough work into him at home 100/1 would be a stupid price. As an Oratorio/Sadlers Wells/Irish River there’s no doubt on pedigree that such a horse would progress at 3.
Encompassing
We all learnt, again, in the Derby that an AOB ‘pacemaker’ isn’t necessarily going to go out like a light and finish last. Second highest SSI. Surely in the Irish Guineas it didn’t ‘weaken’ – it’s a Montjeu!
, rather it was run off it’s feet?So Ballydoyle holds all the stamina in the race. As is often the case. Surely they have to go licketysplit and ensure a strong pace. A dawdle that turns into a sprint is unquestionably not in their interests.
The order of presenting the rest of the field is in order of descending SSI.
Makfi
I take on board what someone said back in the thread about the paucity of the Newmarket/Ascot double. I was with Makfi in the guineas. You want a 1m2f bred sort there and it just qualified on SSI. The same is not true on the stats by the time of the SJP. 3yo colts develop fast into the summer. It’s rare that the Guineas is run on a faster surface than the SJP. Also, with more than 30 days between Newmarket and Ascot you’d prefer to see something come out of the Irish or the French. It’s a test not only of the horse but the trainer. Still Makfi is unbeaten and there’s absolutely no reason to suppose he’s not as progressive as any other candidate. Around 3’s is a fair price but no real value therefore.
Dick Turpin
A good bet for the frame. If I could get 5/2 the place I’d take an interest but it’s not that long. A touch of value at 8s in my book but not much.
Canford Cliffs
CC can be said to have improved for learning to settle and apparently having stopped hanging. Only just bred for the mile I coudn’t have it at newmarket but you can’t fail to be impressed with the manner of victory at the Curragh. Too short in my book though. Lack of stamina could still be exposed by a very strong pace.
Nobles Promise
Seems to just stay out the mile on stateside form but on the first 2 lines of pedigree I couldn’t understand why it would as it looks, on that evidence, like it should be a sprinter. But the second damsire won a Breeders Cup classic, the third is Nijinsky and the fourth traces back to a heavy influence for stamina. So it is a miler. Conquerer of Beethoven on 2yo form albeit on home soil, a formline with Lookin at Lucky suggests it’s not gone backwards. Around 20s looks like some value to me. It’s a long way to come and yes the Am
We’ve seen a special horse today.
The stats it’s broken don’t just include the course record but also
1st horse beaten in a Dante to win the Derby
1st (since Sea Bird) Native Dancer line sire to win the Derby
1st time Sadlers Wells appears as broodmare sire in the Derby roster. That may herald a new era.
Congratulations to Mr Stoute on surely one of the best training performances in living memory. The Australian noseband did the trick and no doubt the Lingfield exercise was instrumental too but to bring the horse on that far in the few weeks since the Dante is brilliance.
Ryan Moore’s description of the ground – as good in the straight – I’ll take over the Clerk of the Course’s. Good to Firm all over? No. That may have a bearing in assessing just how good the time was.
I have to like Stoute’s modesty in assessing his chances – even if it did put me away a little. How refreshing compared to Ballydoyle’s misplaced bravado.
Year after year the market buys into the O’Brien hype but how long now since an Epsom Derby win for them?
^^King’s Best can produce offspring who stay very well. As I mentioned in my Derby analysis, he was responsible for recent Japanese Derby winner, Eishin Flash.
King’s Best showed plenty of speed when comprehensively beating Giant’s Causeway at Newmarket, but was injured during the early stages of the Irish Derby and subsequently retired.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt was a half-brother to Urban Sea, who was responsible for both Galileo and Sea The Stars.
The dam of Workforce is a sister to Brian Boru, who won the St Leger in 2003.
Workforce may have displayed an impressive turn of foot on his debut against a fair calibre of opposition, but connections of the second (Oasis Dancer) felt their colt didn’t handle the undulations of Goodwood, whereas the third (Exceedthewildman) has since won over twelve furlongs.
From what I’ve seen on the track, Workforce doesn’t appeal out as a potential Leger type, but he has a decent chance of staying on pedigree.
You are right. I’ve been guilty of having Kings Best’s guineas win in my mind and looking too closely at it’s published AWD of 8.7.
King’s Best as a Kingmambo (9.9) Lombard (14.0) cross does have plenty stamina to impart. (as well as class and progression).
I have been liking Azmeel’s credentials in that it – likes good to firm, is relatively experienced, is not gross and is well balanced, seems resolute – battles, goes through gaps between horses – and the Derby always seems to have been it’s clear target.
Workforce is not the only candidate today with Kings Best in it’s pedigree. King’s Best is the damsire of Azmeel. I’d rather see Native Dancer lines on the dam’s side. There’s precedent for it without having to go back 45 years.
I’d been wondering if Azmeel might lack stamina, and might not be good enough, but looking again at Kings Best I’ve changed my view. I also very much like the Shirley Heights nick.
Once you start to think this is more of a 1m4f than a 1m2f horse the form changes complexion too. I note it’s described to have ‘ran on’ in taking the Dee Stakes.
In re-evaluating the Kings Best numbers I now think Azmeel can mix it with Midas Touch, Rewilding and Bullet Train in what I’m pretty sure will be a true test of stamina but in which you will need gears as well as a battle hardened temperament.
Not to much, because it still looks a race in which almost anything could win, but AZMEEL for me.
Stoute said: "In the spring, he wasn’t thriving and he’s short of experience.
"He had one race at two and the Dante was unsatisfactory. At Epsom, you’ve got to be sharp mentally and the good thing is there are 12 runners not 24 – that’s a help.
"I took him to Lingfield to accelerate down the hill and come round the turn. He’s sharpened up since the Dante, as one would expect him to."
Stoute, who has won the Derby four times, added: "We’re entitled to run and he’s got a chance, but I couldn’t say I’m confident because of the lack of an additional run.
"He’ll stay and I hope the ground isn’t too quick."
Surely it will be too quick?
To my way of thinking Workforce isn’t the only leading fancy who feels rushed to get here.
With Jan Vermeer will we, won’t we Epsom or France, you’d think you might like to train a horse a bit differently if the aim is 1m4f rather than 1m2f?
I often wonder if Godolphin know what they’re doing. Bin Suroor being now ‘rivaled’ by Al Zarooni sort of reflects a realisation of that imho. But of course they still have Crisford around. I note they took Dubai Millenium down the Cocked Hat (Goodwood) route but, of course excellent horse that he proved to be later in the season, a Derby winner he wasn’t.
I’m not sure you’d get a Kings Best to win a Leger however stoutely bred the dam but the wider point might be that this could be a Derby where the ‘best’ horse doesn’t in fact win. The rest of the season might show that some of the market leaders just weren’t ready in time or hadn’t been trained specifically for the race.
, rather it was run off it’s feet?