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There’s been a concerted move for Fencing Master on the exchanges over the last few minutes. Most everything else at this point in time is on the drift.
I’ve taken an exchange position at ridiculous figures about Viscount Nelson.
He’s part of my 7 who fit the speed/stamina spread.
The way he’s bred anything he did at two was always going to be a bonus. Despite that his form isn’t bad.
O’Brien warned us his are better for a run.
Fallon seems to have crept up on the beast almost unnoticed by the wider public.
He’s at the top end of the stamina bracket so he needs a strong pace but could kick early, get first run and wear them down from the front. His draw position enables him to lay up just near the shoulder of the flank centre far pinning the field in then bounce and get first run. And if there is any softening of the going I don’t think that harms him.
Stranger things have happened at Sea
The first race on the card will be indicative of any track bias. Perhaps. I hope to find time to read that race.
It seems in fact that whilst all other races on the card stalls are stands side, the 2000 (and the JC) stalls are centre.
I still wouldn’t want to be on the inner of Canford Cliffs. Hannon knows it needs to go in a straight line to get every yard so I think they target a point on the stands side rail. A rail might help it go in a straight line when it wants to hang left. So Ahern and Hills I think will want to track across right and look for a run through the outer.
With births in 14, 12 and 9 O’Brien holds centre track. Does he track over to the far rail leaving a gap down the centre? Or does he close that gap? And if so, when?
Where the pace is across the track will still be important even if they race as a single herd. If all the pace through the race is low those drawn high could be left too far off the pace. Although I think there’s plenty of pace high.
I’m not saying EP might have to come around the whole field but I can see a scenario where it might need to. That’s not to say it couldn’t. No pace is too strong.
The big question we all need to ask. Will the low draw speedsters provide a better lead than Greyfriarschorista/Viscount Nelson give those drawn in double figures? Can SNA win the race if his lead pony is lengths off the serious sustained speed on the other side of the track?
Viscount Nelson is SNA’s ‘lead pony’?
VN has led, disputed or raced prominently. Perhaps they’ll forge the pace with it?
Hi newyork
They place the stalls off the rails so they will come down the middle – see video link
Looks like EP has a cracking draw same as Sea the Stars.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Ra … 92,00.html
Going currently Good to Firm – little rain forecast so they shouldn’t need to add any.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingr … =newmarket
Fryern: I am listening to you and have been interested to support your local vineyard
but –I think I sense a little amount of ‘justication’, making a case, in this post?
Isn’t it the case that last year stalls were centre (even far). This year they are stands side?
They say Canford Cliffs out of box 4 might lug left for pressure – I’d guess perhaps at some point in the dip. You don’t want to be behind that one I’d suggest as it becomes unbalanced and it’s stamina gives. Although, whilst they’ve said there’s always the July Cup, they think a bit of it, and it could be the lead horse to be shot at at some point coming up the hill.
Whether they’ll spilt into two is important. Obviously the bigger the field size the greater the propensity for that to happen. In 2007 24 split into two; 2002, 22; 1994, 23. Although in the biggest field of 27 in 2000 (Kings Bests year – beat Giants Causeway) they raced as one herd. In 1996 just 13 runners divided into two groups with the first three home from the 7 who raced on the stands side the remaider racing centre.
Apart from those 2 exceptions though, every field of 20 or less (back to 88) has remained as one racing group.
I see a propensity toward a midbox divide with I’d guess Al Zir (10) and Fencing Master (9) likely to want to remain near their stablemates drawn high and Hannon maybe wanting DT near CC low. Maybe.
With stalls on the stands side teams O’Brien and Godolphin would be unlikely I’d think to be considering a dash for the far rail. Unless there was a perceived track bias, a strip of faster ground over there like in RoG’s year.
The home hope horses in what you might call team Southern England (Hannon, Dunlop, Hills, Balding, Eddery, Best, McBride) drawn low might be vulnerable to tactics.
If I were Coolmore/Godolphin, all other things being equal, I’d not track off into a seperate group far side (well not for long anyway), I’d keep my position or come over so not only ensuring the field races as one but perhaps creating a wall of horses behind which Elusive Pimpernell and Awzaan having to be held up/come late off a rails draw could well get stuck behind.
So it might be wishful thinking to suppose EP might get all that space Sea the Stars did on the centre/stalls flank last year. It could look like a very different race the traffic problems perhaps sharpened by horses drawn low wobbling around in the dip.
The wide expanses of the Rowley Mile can be deceptive in their perspective; the temptation for the inexperienced is to go for home too soon. But more than that is the undulating topography of this trickiest of pitches, in particular the infamous Dip a quarter of a mile out, a downhill run of a furlong before an equally sharp rise to the finishing line.
"It comes at the most crucial time of the race," said Fallon, "just when you’re starting to get your horse ready for the final effort. You want him or her to be balanced and travelling smoothly as you start the descent,
but if you start to get organised too early and start using up fuel then you won’t have enough left for the run uphill
.
"If you try to start to accelerate going downhill you risk becoming unbalanced and if you leave it too late the others will have got first run. It’s a very fine line to decide where and when to go."
point is it ain’t flat and takes some getting!!
Exactly Big Bucks.
This is why, at this stage in the 3yo campaign, and given the customary good to strong pace, you need a horse bred along 1m2f lines.
Remember any doubters, that a racehorse is not a horse until he is aged 4. He is a colt. In other words he is, generally still developing. A bit like a human teenager. That is why the difficult imponderable after condiserations of class and speed/stamina balance, going preferences, is quite where the horse, sorry, colt, has progressed with his development between 2 and 3.
John Dunlop well understands this. We are grateful to him for his candour on how EP has filled out and strengthened. Mr Dunlop is undoubtedbly a seasoned and knowledge professional to be respected. But it isn’t, as John knows, a two horse race.
I had the impression a few years back, I think it was Haafhd’s year – it was on the soft side of good I think – by the thought that if I was to drive over the terrain in a vehicle I would choose a pacey but powerful 4 wheel drive rather than a sportscar. In equine terms more a bull than a cat. If that makes sense.
I’ll keep the sportscar for the Jersey Stakes or the July Cup.
In answer to the correct assertion by someone earlier that many guineas winners are campaigned over a mile. Well yes. The path, if you can, is the St James Palace and the Sussex. But do note how many guineas winners campaigned that way do take on either the Champions Stakes or now the Breeders Cup 1m2f championship as they are closer to approaching horsedom in the autumn.
The bottom line is of course stud value.
Sea Pigeon – can you name us the last horse to take a Guineas/July Cup double?
Sprinters nor 7f horses just don’t win this race.
I agree with you Red Riot on the Greenham.
20 years of stats show that you need a horse bred to, eventually, get 1m2f to win the Guineas.
On the figures neither Canford Cliffs nor Dick Turpin have sufficient stamina.
Of the 27 entries there are 7 candidates who fit the profile of a Guineas winner.
Some more evidence on this potential influence for precociousness in SNA’s female line. Consider Aristotle.
By Sadlers Wells (SNA’s grandsire) out of Flamenco Wave (SNA’s granddam) so quite closely related to SNA, Aristotle also won the Racing Post Trophy (RPT)(in 1999).
I wouldn’t go so far as to say Aristotle didn’t train on but certainly his form suggests he was at the peak of his prowess aged two. At three, having ‘won’ (was disqualified) a Group 2 in France, Aristotle was a non-staying 10th in Sinndar’s Derby. Sent off third favourite he significantly under performed his market position. That was his final start at three and the last time he was seen on a track in Europe.
At 4 Aristotle won a 1m2f race worth half the value of the RPT in Singapore. He ended his racing days there down the field in an, albeit valuable, handicap. A horse, undoubtedly, in relative decline after an illustrious two-year-old campaign.
The Flamenco Wave influence – early development rather than progressive types. Set the world on fire at two but then..
Re the discussion on SNA being a Montjeu –
The speed SNA showed at two clearly comes from the dam’s side. (Sure Blade 10.1, Desert Wine 7.0). The speed-stamina profile is in the perfect range for a guineas prospect. At 6/4 it’s right to look for question marks but that’s not the place. This is-
The grand dam Flamenco Wave was trained by John Oxx to win the Moyglare Stakes at two but failed to train on.
That would seem to be a trait inherited from it’s damsire Sadair a speedy multiple US Stakes winner at two but who failed to win aged three or older.
SNA has a full sister, Cascata, who won her only juvenile start but, guess what – failed to win at three.
On two year old form SNA wins the race. But the Guineas is about, amongst other things, which candidates have progressed over the winter. Anyone remember One Cool Cat?
Montjeu’s progeny generally progress well but if SNA inherits it’s speed from the female line there is also a chance it could inherit this tendancy of the family not to train on. That is the very real question it has to answer.
Warm noises from Ballydoyle about SNA having progressed well over the winter (if anyone sees any quotes please post) might provide assurance – or they might not. I seem to remember positive media from O’Brien about One Cool Cat: a favourite I opposed – with Haafhd – on account, partially, of the fact it was by Storm Cat whose progeny from 2 to 3 have a tendancy to not train on.
