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1. Official going change this am – now good to firm (despite watering)
2. Al Zir has been said to prefer an easy surface.
The going is neither in the favour of Ted Spread nor Workforce.
Murtagh on the morning line made the useful point that whatever’s improved 10 to 12lbs from the trials wins. Jan Vermeer has had least time to improve 10 to 12lbs.
Murtagh quoted in the Racing Post this week stated there is a doubt over Jan Vermeer’s stamina. The fast ground is a factor towards speed. Connections said after the Gran Criterium that it shows lots of speed.
What a trappy heat. Midas Touch looks like an out and out galloper. We’ve not seen it ‘quicken’. They keep the Derrinstown pacemaker At First Sight in. Bullet Train ‘doesn’t have to go from the front’. These three and Ted Spread will make it a true test of stamina. So the conditions (fast ground) and the way the race seems likely to be run cut in opposite directions.
Workforce is clearly one that could improve out of all recognition. Stoutey’s no mug. The fact it was still green – babyish and ‘spooked’ Stoute said – in the Dante you can read either way. My worry is that it clearly didn’t have a positive experience in the Dante. Probably the bit slipped because it refused to take hold of it. He looked iffy at the stalls. Workforce has a markedly rounded action and I thought never seemed happy on the gf at York. I think it’s one to be watched in the prelims. It’s not just inexperience that might count against it, I’ve a thought it might not be right in the head as a result of the Dante.
The prelims are important because 29degrees of heat will also be a factor today. Anything that gets upset will simply expend too much energy. Cool and relaxed is what you’d want to see.
Bullet Train also. Cecil reports it can be colty and get excited. You’d not want to see any of that in this heat.
I’ve heard Francome remark that you want a light coloured horse in extreme heat. But, apart from the pacemaker, they’re all bays. Would a light-bodied animal have a slight advantage over a more heavily built rival in high temperature and humidity?
Other than wanting to see the demeanour of the Abdulla pair, I think I have it narrowed down to two. I’ll also be back later and reading what people have to say.
Ballydoyle know that the sooner SNA is carted off to the breeding shed the better. Watch out for the news this week that some injury has been discovered and he won’t run. Again, ever.
I must take issue with the person who wrote that Jan Vermeer’s breeding is ‘all stamina’ (Whatever that might mean). That’s rubbish. The first 3 lines of damsires are Pennekamp, JOTobin and Secretariat. Not a single middle distance influence amongst them. Indeed, the contrary.
I am sniffing a theory that Montjeu might be one of those stallions who doesn’t stamp his stock but is quite ‘giving’ to the dam’s characteristics. Hence why that ‘not train on’ gene I identified on SNA’s dam’s side before the Guineas has won through.
One thing we do know about this year’s Derby is that it will be a true test. Ted Spread will see to that. I expect connections will force the issue from around 4 or 5f out.
Winning a Group 3 ‘very easily’ under a penalty has to read class. But 1m2f off a slow pace is not the conditions Jan Vermeer will experience at Epsom. All that speed on the dam’s side and if Montjeu is a ‘giving’ not a ‘stamping’ sire. I’d like to be able to find time to conduct some more research on that theory.
‘Bigness’ is a factor round Epsom. A tank can get unbalanced on the camber. I’ve heard the Downs compared to a roller coaster. Note I use the word ‘can’. Some of us big chaps can be quite nimble on our feet. Others are more oafish. In the foreword to a text I have on the Derby (that’s a book not a phone message) the author says that historically many Derby winners have been 16.1 hands or less. It’s just one factor amongst many. But bigness does increase the risk that a horse might not act on the track.
I’ve not yet seen a tape of the Galinule Stakes or whatever it’s called so I was interested to hear Jan Vermeer described on here as a monster. With a risk it might not act on the track and a, to my eye, glaring risk it won’t stay – have those clever bookies just exchanged one false favourite with another?
Rocket Man
The Montjeu/Gone West cross is that of Motivator.
But the rest of the dam’s profile can’t be said to match up to that of Motivators. The second damsire is Deputy Minister a Northern Dancer not present on the Derby roster and we know Northern Dancer on the female line is a rarity. Then Illustrious who appears to be a speedster.
On balance I think Rocket Man falls slightly short on both stamina and class. As you’re likely to encounter a sedate pace in a 7 runner trial it could, though, win a Chester Vase.
Morana has an impressive pedigree.
By Alhaarth, a Northern Dancer yet to sire a Derby winner, the damsire is Blushing Groom itself and the second damsire is Nijinsky itself. Two highly influential Derby bloodlines.
Further back the third damsire is Charlottesville (Persimmon line) who was also Shahrastani’s third damsire, Shahrastani being by Nijinsky.
So no shortage of class or stamina.
It’s RPT 5th reads ok. The Craven 5th perhaps less so on the face of it but this is no miler and an interesting one to step up to 1m4f in the Chester Vase.
Chink of Light
Dr Fong doesn’t yet appear in the Derby roster but it’s by Kris S, Kris Kin’s sire, a Roberto line as was Benny The Dip (Silver Hawk).
Crossing to Shirley Heights (damsire of High Chaparral) looks ok – provides a balance of stamina.
Second damsire Persian Ruler, the Bold Ruler line of Nasrullah. Third damsire Sheshoon which I don’t know much about but was second damsire of Kahyasi. And fourth damsire Crepello is a Blandford line, an old fashioned non Phalaris-Nearco line and a stamina influence and which has been present in 6 of the last 10 winners.
It’s form is pants though being beaten in very moderate 1m4f hcaps. Might prove to be a merely useful stayer despite the sire’s speed.
Yes, Mr Morris is to be respected. I’d broadly concur with him on Chabal – 1m2f looks likely to be it’s optimum trip.
I’m not too worried about Zafonic being the damsire. Zafonic is a Gone West and Gone West was the damsire of Motivator. Zafonic being Gone West x The Minstrel adds a bit of extra stamina.
Second damsire Linamix (Northern Dancer Lyphard line) doesn’t concern me either – so long as I’m going to find stout stamina soon.
I find Halo. A Hail to Reason (same sire as Roberto) and sire of Kentucky Derby winners Sunny’s Halo and Sunday Silence. So more 1m2f influence than middle distance + stamina.
So, broadly speaking, we have influences for 1m4f, mile, 1m2f, 1m2f. Which looks like a 1m2f horse.
Going further back it goes sprinter/Nasrullah itself/ then two lines of old fashioned stamina. There’s some hope from those distant lines but it’s a long way back.
Ok – Cape Blanco
Obviously NDSWgalileo is a tick box.
The damsire is Presidium (awd 8.3). It’s a Nasrullah line but in being the Bold Ruler (Secretariat) branch it would open up a line from Nasrullah that, as far as I’m aware, hasn’t yet featured anywhere in a Derby winner’s pedigree.
The second damsire, Artaius (awd 11.3) is a Persimmon line. A non Phalaris-Nearco. Which is ok on the dam’s side. Although a Persimmon line hasn’t turned up since Dr Devious 1992.
The third damsire is Petingo – a Phalaris line. Motivator had a Phalaris line third damsire although a more commonly seen member of the Derby roster than Petingo. And we’ve not seen a Persimmon line together with a Phalaris line in the backend of a pedigree since Quest For Fame 1990.
On balance I’d say the dam doesn’t look promising. Too many hitherto unseen damsires. So, on breeding, I’d say Cape Blanco looks less like a Derby horse than Coordinated Cut and might lack a bit of class.
Nicely spotted Pedigree Man, I asked a similar question about 4 years ago as to why at that point had no winner of the Derby,Oaks, or Coronation Cup in the previous 10 years got Northern Dancer duplications in their last 4 generations.
I got no answers and that year, 2007, Authorised won! However to my way of thinking Authorised was a 12f plus bred animal and the other winners were the usual 10-12f bred animals. The duplication maybe increases speed in the mix.Also in the last 10 years 2009, going backwards Authorised is still the only one to win the Derby, and still none the Coronation Cup.
Another point is that no animal with Mr P inbreeding in the last 4 generations has won any of the 12f G1 races that colts and horses can enter in England or Ireland either.
On this basis, I would not expect Burj Nahar, Chabal or Coordinated Cut to win this year.
Had I been around 4 years ago I might have said you only needed to go back another year to find Lammtarra (1995) ND Nijinsky sire line and Northern Dancer itself as sire of the 3rd dam. That kind of created a not too distant precedent for Authorized?
I’d not want to rule out Coordinated Cut (CCu) on the structure of it’s pedigree. Authorized was only 3 years ago. CCu’s structure is not dissimilar. Beyond the obvious that they are both NDSW-Montjeu, the dam’s sire is Nasrullah-Blushing Groom line and ok it’s Arazi not Rainbow Quest but it is the same line. Dancing Brave as the second damsire is ok with me. Of the 5 incidences of Northern Dancer on the dam’s side in 20 years we have Nijinsky1, ND itself2 and Lyphard2 (Kris Kin, Authorised). Dancing Brave is a Lyphard. So they are quite closely related and put together along similar lines.
I’m not sure of Arazi’s record as a broodmare sire. Not too good? But the Nasrullah line is the most common incidence of damsire over the last 20 years with 8 hits. And Montjeu is so stoutly bred in the Sadlers Wells/Top Ville cross that I don’t mind seeing a bit of zip and brilliance on the dam’s side. That’s where it’s gears and that all important ability to quicken might come from.
I see CCu is entered only for the Dante. I don’t think I’ve seen it run. Quirkiness?, temperament?, gears? I think I’d want to see a balance of Montjeu-x-Arazi. Too much Arazi, too much speed and fizziness, and I’d think it unlikely to stay. But I wouldn’t say it’s pedigree looks unlike a Derby winner. It’s quite like Kris Kin and even more like Authorized.
Musicfan – we might also produce a list of Champion 2yo’s, winter favourites for the 2000, that simply failed to train on. Time will tell which way SNA goes but I’m on record with my theory on the matter since before the 2000 and I’m sticking with it.
It’s interesting what connections do with an out and out 2yo in the name of it’s stud value. They’ll let the hype ride and once it starts to dissipate they’ll take a sharp exit as best they can. Only natural when the high point of the stock has passed.
But punters still let bookies make it favourite for everything.
A question for those who know their Derby breeding history etc-
Which occured to me whilst looking at the, in many ways attractive, make-up of John Oxx’s Behtarini –
The absence of NorthernDancer-Sadlers Wells (NDSW)line on the broodmare side of ANY Derby winner. Should this concern me?
Whilst NorthernDancer SadlersWells/Danzig/Nijinsky lines clean up on the front end (13/20years) (8 out of 10 last 10 years); On the dam’s side it’s a very different story with -going back to 3rd dam over 20 years- only 5/60 Northern Dancer line (8 percent as opposed to rising 80).
I don’t think it’s a case of waiting for a wave to break through the female bloodline, it just looks as if, for some reason NDSW (and Danzig, Northern Dancer generally), doesn’t make for an effective Derby broodmare sire.
Also in the case of Behtarini, the Nasrullah line on the front end seems to be on the wane as an influence (3 in the 80’s, 2 in the 90’s, just Sir Percy in the 00’s)
I can’t help but feel I’d rather see the NDSW on the sire side and the Nasrullah (Shirley Heights) on the dam’s side.
Nasrullah-Northern Dancer isn’t without precedence – Quest For Fame 1990. But Northern Dancer-Nasrullah is much more prevalent – Authorized, North Light, High Chaparral, Sinndar, Lammtarra, Erhaab, Generous, Kahyasi.
So I think it matters but I’m far from sure why this should be – why Northern Dancer lines seem in fact to be a liability on the female line?; why Northern Dancer, despite now enjoying almost total dominance as sire of Derby sires (Sadlers Wells/Danzig), should have such a poor record as a Derby broodmare sire?
If we could propogate a theory as to why no Sadlers Wells on the dam’s side history might be likely to continue, we could rule out any such candidates.
A similar possible ‘line through’ tool is Native Dancer line sires (no winner since Sea Bird 1965). More commonly we might call this the Mr Prospector line. I’ve noticed the Native Dancer line being more prevalent on the dam’s side in the 00’s than in previous decades (probably what provides zip to SeaTheStars, Motivator, High Chaparral, Galileo) but still no cigar as a sireline for 35 years. I’d rule out, amongst others, all the Kings Bests which would take out, amongst others, Workforce. Although they do say that Derby winners have been becoming more speedily bred? Could that mean a 35 year trend could be broken?
Zenjah – why are you linking us to ambient techno?
Don’t get me wrong I’m partial to a bit myself
– just wondered how relevant to the Derby
That "Strange Stuff" he was talking about was basically his life, how he named the horse, his wife, his injury, if you looked up his wikipedia page youll find out more about him, he looked broken when they announced it, understandably criquitte is happy but I think she could of least had some consolable words for the connections of JQ, I hope this horse gets what she deserves now, not just for herself, but for Noel Martin.
So now I looked up his wiki page. Confirms what I thought – he’s had some previous with Ch4. Our story’s exactly the same – Ch4 involved, authorities find against Martin. No smoke without fire I guess.
I, too, have a liking for an overpriced outsider.
A Henry Cecil 66/1 shot in a classic stands out. Whilst it scored well on the speed-stamina index, was on the favoured side and had evidence of potential liking for cut on the dam’s side, I agreed with you Bulwark, just couldn’t give it a chance on the book.
Note to self: don’t worry too much about the form of a big priced Cecil going into a big race.
I’m glad I didn’t have to feel sickened by the stewards as you must have Moehat – but still, nice spot and hopefully the place paid well.
Following the gamble, I had a tiny on Gile Na Greine but not unfortunately a place.
I was, maybe, scuppered by the split but I don’t think you can legislate for them to have to run in a straight line. Tactics and track bias inference, etc, etc, are all part of the myriad of factors that make the game the love-hate mistress she is, what makes her fascinating, what means she has colourful odds.
On the disqualification I just say that any set of rules is bound to have an element of discretion inherent in the position of those who decide upon the application of those rules.
So who was the owner of the disqualified? The guy in the wheelchair? He was saying a lot of strange stuff when interviewed on CH4.
I bet the French can’t believe they got a classic in an English stewards room! Yeah Head’s reaction was one of thinly veiled disbelief. Can anyone name the last time it happened the other way around in France?
Yes Norman Martin. I found it quite strange how Cattermole stuck a mike right up under his nose and just let him waffle on for ages. He said some bad stuff about ch4 I think. With the timing of the announcement of the disqualifaction it was if as if someone had said put a mike on him, if he’s spouting strange stuff give it to the French. Henry Cecil seemed a bit weird too. He didn’t look well.
Assuming Sent From Heaven attempts to make it (quite such a stoutly bred individual on the head ought to ensure a true test) and given the softening ground, I am placing a slight emphasis on soft-ground sires and on stamina.
Seta – as someone mentioned, was going up and down on the spot in the May Hill and Pollenator has more stamina which told that day so, despite being by Pivotal, is passed over.
Pollenator – by Motivator so should relish conditions.
Pipette – the other Pivotal but I won’t be following the gamble as I’d have to take it’s class on trust.
Lady Darshaan – someone said it was thought to like fast going but it’s a High Chaparral. I think this is just the sort of ground the Sadlers Wells sires should like. She’s the one I take out of the fillies mile.
Gile Na Greine – a Galileo. Top end of the race’s stamina spectrum. I don’t think it’s gone quite so testing as to make me include this one. It’s 5th in the Moyglare doesn’t read that bad.
Distinctive – a Tobougg, so that Barathea line. Channon said his couldn’t go through the mud when Distinctive won the G3 at Ayr. Distinctive was only 6th in the Nell Gwyn but had no room and had to be switched. Having the same stamina numbers as Seta and likely to have it’s ground I don’t think Distinctive is a 160/1 chance.
A giants causeway followed home by 2 mr prospector line horses in the first. Its not gd-sft IMO. Perhaps this rain hasnt quite soaked in.
Apparently the 12.45pm going stick was 8.2.
Frankie described it as good perfect ground.
That’s not what Ryan Moore reported after the Dahlia though and said his just got a little tired on the ground.
They’re getting their toe into the top. Of course there has been a solid base but I think the precipitation might be gradually percolating down into that such that conditions are becoming slightly more testing as the card progresses.
Anyone live in the area? Is it p***ing down?
It started bucketing down around 7.45pm near to the M25. Bucketing.
Here in Hertfordshire it’s been bucketing too but according to my guesswork reading of the bbc weather map
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
..it looks as if the rain has been lashing just short of the Rowley Mile this evening.
We’ll know tomorrow but I’m not in search of mudlarks just yet.
My speed-stamina figures ‘7’ in order of profitability of position taken
Viscount Nelson ++++
Makfi +++
Fencing Master ++
Elusive Pimpernel +
SNA – opposed (evidence from dam side may not train on)
Inler – opposed (no evidence of class + trainer)
Awzaan – opposed (small and less scopey, Francome said it looks like a sprinter)Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin – they didn’t stay as well as the winner. The winner had the requisite amount of stamina. Only those 7 did. This system works.
SNA – Personally I’ll be pricing it up if it runs again around the theory it hasn’t trained on.
I don’t think there was as much pace on as in a typical year? Would anyone else agree? Of my 7, Makfi is the most toward the speed end of the qualifying spectrum. And the Hannon pair, I’ll admit, did better than I expected. So it reads to me like a day for speed?
I’d like to think Hannon will keep CC and DT at a mile. As the season goes on those placed guineas horses with slightly less stamina than the winner do have a good record in the St James Palace and the Sussex. They’re continuing to progress into the full stamina of their maturity. Most of them.
