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I am interested in a few towards the foot of the weights in the Northumberland Plate, but I’m worried about whether they will get in.
Does anyone know the safety limit for this one?
Can’t answer that, but I see my old friend Tilt is down to run; thought they’d given up on him last year. Also one of my favourite horses, Hits Only Vic.
There seems to be a pretty heavy draw bias for this race, so I’ll be whittling down my shortlist once the draw has come out.
Should be a good ‘un.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Can’t answer that, but I see my old friend Tilt is down to run; thought they’d given up on him last year. Also one of my favourite horses, Hits Only Vic.
Ah yes, let’s hope Tilt is on his best behaviour. Bad news about Hits Only Vic though. According to the RP website, he has met a setback and misses the season.
Safety limit is 20 by the way. It looks like Deauville Flyer is struggling to get in, among others.
I like the look of
Overturn
at 9/1,he looks very well handicapped,so long as Opinion Poll runs!I can see him doing a
Junior
and running them ragged!
Opinion Poll will only run on easy going, won’t he? Or will they run him because he ain’t gonna get it any time soon?
Opinion Poll tops the weights but trainer Michael Jarvis said on Monday: "He’s also in the Curragh Cup and he is ground dependent. The forecast doesn’t look favourable for him and he might end up going nowhere."
Out of the ones that are definitely in, Overturn, Elyaadi and Stanstill do it for me, providing they keeps the weight.
Looking down the weights, I like the looks of Deauville Flyer, Aaim To Prosper (God, I hate that spelling), Junior and My Arch. Depends on if they get in….oh, and there’s the draw bias to look out for, too!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Overturn car parked in 21
Crackentorp and Chiberta King for me, although obviously the Flyer will be punted as if 2 stone well in
Old boy Desert Sea at 14/1? Fair mark (3lb lower than last win), good draw (4), decent run in Chester Cup (6/17, staying on), ground in favour, Callan up first time but an excellent jockey (perhaps underrated), not many negatives really!
Crackentorp is unexposed and is in form, Deauville Flyer could be well-handicapped too, Rajik and Chilberta King others to consider in a typically open race. DS for me though.
Overturn car parked in 21
A Nightmare box according to stats Bucksy and a drift in the market from 9"s to 14"s tells its own story but i believe this fellow has enough pace to get himself competitive from the gate and any position within the first 10 after a furlong will see
Overturn
run a big race,here"s hoping anyway!
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Mamlook
for me.
Only 2lbs more than his Chester Cup win, swerved Ascot for this, will love the fast ground, and has to go close to justify his Melbourne Cup aspirations.
8/1 is more than fair, imo.I’m wanting something that I can make a case for it being substantially better than 3lb in. Yes, a couple of stone well in would be the sort of argument I’d be looking for.
Not far away in the 2007 St Leger when staying on and getting hampered, Macarthur took the Ormonde and the Hardwicke (on fast ground) the following year after which he was rated 119!
Now lurking off a mark of 97! is this really a has been gone to pot? One of the striking facts for me is that despite that St Leger performance, this son of Montjeu, ex Ballydoyle inmate, is yet to be tried over 2 miles! Aidan O’Brien did have him entered up for the 2008 Melbourne Cup though.
I’m summising here but I think why Coolmore cast him out and now he’s a gelding is that once full brother, Derby winning Motivator, establishes his fertility, Macarthur’s prospects at stud are severely limited. Same bloodline – why would you.
So he ends up lickety split round the tight turns of Dubai for Mike DeKock, some time off, then quietly a few ‘outpaced’ and ‘never troubling leaders’ runs back in England over what now looks undoubtedly an inadequate trip of 12f (did better at 14f) for the Chapple Hyams.
Ok sometimes a horse has just ‘gone’, maybe Mike DeKock ruined it, we don’t know, so you can’t have a hefty investment on a case like this but of course at 66/1 you don’t need to. I guarantee you there will be worse 66/1 shots than a Hardwicke winner just 2 seasons ago off a rating of 97. Sometimes the forgotten horse returns to glory. And I’ve not been alone in contracting it’s price on betfair tonight.
- Total Posts 17716
Hand on my heart if I ever backed the winner of this it would be 1974 Attivo or 1976 – Philominsky and I casn’t even be sureI backed either of them. Did get a tip for one of Fitzy’s that won it but bottle out of backing it.
In short this is one of the toughest races on the calander.
It’s common knowledge Tim Easterby is ultra keen on his chances with Deauville Flyer a horse who needs every yard of this. He apparently regards him very very highly "a bit special" so it’s no surprise he’s favourite.
Not very imaginative but better a 4/1 winner than a 20/1 loser and the yard don’t often get it wrong when the cash is down.
Good luck to anyoneone else who’s as daft as me and crazy enough to bet in this….
Like the look of Chiberta king might well improve over longer trip,obvious danger Deauville flyer.
Not a race for significant investment but should be a cracker … can’t have 4/1 the favourite in a race this competitive.
The stand out for me is Alan Swinbank’s Stanstill … I liked the way he stuck to his task on his first try at 2m last time at Haydock … especially as it was on ground he wouldn’t particularly have appreciated … drawn well in 7 (although still unconvinced that a draw matters over 2m ?) … stable in good form 4/13 … and underrated jockey also in form 3/7.
Expect him to try and make all and repel all challengers in the final furlong.
Off to Coral’s for a bit of 16’s
Dangers ? … think Chiberta King could improve again for the step up to 2m.
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