- This topic has 28 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 10 months ago by
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I am going in big on
Chiberta King
, ran a massive time lto and has plenty of improvement
This is what I wrote on 17/05/10 in my notebook;
15th May Newmarket (Good to Firm)
3.25 – CHIBERTA KINGRating – 97
Par – +4.04
Potential – Well this was a taking performance especially under 9-8, you don’t normally find it easy to make all in a large field off 9-8 and to then record a quiet impressive time which underlines Chiberta King’s improvement from 3 to 4 for Andrew Balding and it looks as if the horse should take his chance outside Handicap Company. The evidence suggests it’s a genuine Group 3 performance boarding Group 2 and this King’s Best gelding has only had the 12 runs indicating his potential for more improvement, he is a definite horse to keep on top off.I’m wanting something that I can make a case for it being substantially better than 3lb in. Yes, a couple of stone well in would be the sort of argument I’d be looking for.
Not far away in the 2007 St Leger when staying on and getting hampered, Macarthur took the Ormonde and the Hardwicke (on fast ground) the following year after which he was rated 119!
Now lurking off a mark of 97! is this really a has been gone to pot? One of the striking facts for me is that despite that St Leger performance, this son of Montjeu, ex Ballydoyle inmate, is yet to be tried over 2 miles! Aidan O’Brien did have him entered up for the 2008 Melbourne Cup though.
I’m summising here but I think why Coolmore cast him out and now he’s a gelding is that once full brother, Derby winning Motivator, establishes his fertility, Macarthur’s prospects at stud are severely limited. Same bloodline – why would you.
So he ends up lickety split round the tight turns of Dubai for Mike DeKock, some time off, then quietly a few ‘outpaced’ and ‘never troubling leaders’ runs back in England over what now looks undoubtedly an inadequate trip of 12f (did better at 14f) for the Chapple Hyams.
Ok sometimes a horse has just ‘gone’, maybe Mike DeKock ruined it, we don’t know, so you can’t have a hefty investment on a case like this but of course at 66/1 you don’t need to. I guarantee you there will be worse 66/1 shots than a Hardwicke winner just 2 seasons ago off a rating of 97. Sometimes the forgotten horse returns to glory. And I’ve not been alone in contracting it’s price on betfair tonight.
I don’t think I’ve ever had a bet in this race before but you might well have found something here. I’ve had a small EW on the strength of your research although I fancy Overturn, my bet365 competition Ante Post selection.
Can’t see much point in making this too complicated. Deauville Flyer already has the best form and is open to more improvement that the vast majority of his opponents. Has an ideal draw given how he’s likely to be ridden. It’s difficult to see him not winning.
Having backed
Overturn
before the draw and the fact i was adamant there were too many horses above Deauville flyer to let him in,i have to agree with your simplistic approach there david.Everything is in Deauvilles favour today and i can see him going off a ridiculously short price once the on course boys get stuck in! I shall let my bet run its course though as i still believe Overturn can surprise from the car park!
- Total Posts 17716
Macarthur is not the same horse, he’s on a steady decline and you have to ask yourself why has a horse thats soundly bred gone so astray? if he was fighting out a finish i wouldn’t fancy my money and I couldn’t take form from 3 years ago into this race, he’s had his time.
- Total Posts 17716
Can’t see much point in making this too complicated. Deauville Flyer already has the best form and is open to more improvement that the vast majority of his opponents. Has an ideal draw given how he’s likely to be ridden. It’s difficult to see him not winning.
Having backed
Overturn
before the draw and the fact i was adamant there were too many horses above Deauville flyer to let him in,i have to agree with your simplistic approach there david.Everything is in Deauvilles favour today and i can see him going off a ridiculously short price once the on course boys get stuck in! I shall let my bet run its course though as i still believe Overturn can surprise from the car park!
Brave selection brave horse well done Gord!!!!
- Total Posts 17716
Having backed
Overturn
before the draw and the fact i was adamant there were too many horses above Deauville flyer to let him in,i have to agree with your simplistic approach there david.Everything is in Deauvilles favour today and i can see him going off a ridiculously short price once the on course boys get stuck in! I shall let my bet run its course though as i still believe Overturn can surprise from the car park!
Top call sir, one of the best judges on TRF
Enjoy your winnings
Good call Gord and CS and whoever else backed it!
I fell into the trap of believing the favourite was well in…never, ever got into it though?
Eddie Ahern did very well to get the position from his wide draw without having to roust his mount along aswell!
Becoming a bit of a habit now these NH horses winning the big staying handicaps….
Very kind words guys,Cheers! As Frank Carson used to say,"Its the way i tell em"! Today was a fine example of maintaining discipline in the face of adversity and it paid off!I just wish i was as confident about Spain in the World Cup!
Get yer belief in spain sorted will ya!
Well done with this, stayed on track and that’s good. I did say he was "car Parked" but said nothing else, not a negative as such, Toldo’s race they were all high on fast ground, but did prefer others more, so well done
DJ – had to go to work, result immaterial but look at the horses Deauville Flyer raced against, their mark and class of race, wasn’t good at all, and he was backed as if he’d placed in a group 2 or something. Not to be, should have just place laid him, mine didn’t land a blow either.
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