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Indeed she gets stronger the longer the race, but she has nothing at all to fear from Seville who’s a hound, while she can outstay Sea Moon..but
she herself will need softer ground
..
You’re joking BB? She won the Guineas on good-firm.
Value Is EverythingSea Moon is out of Park Hill (Fillies Leger) winner Eva Luna who’s already produced a Leger winner in Brian Boru. Sire Beat Hollow was third in one of the best Derbys in recent years. Winner Sinndar and Runner up Sakhee went on to frank the form in no uncertain terms. So like his sire Saddlers Wells (second in King George) Beat Hollow stayed 12 furlongs well despite not winning over the trip. He’s also out of Wemyss Bight who won the Irish Oaks.
Further Sea Moon went the better he was in the Voltigeur. Settled well there and looks a very probable stayer tomorrow. One thing wrong about the race was very few ran to form. Very few were able to quicken in the Knavesmire that week. However, the time was good and Sea Moon must be rated Group 1 class with the ease of victory.Worth a saver at 13/8 on my Seville main bet.
Value Is EverythingThe biggest doubt over Sea Moon and Blue Bunting has to be that the form of the Ebor meeting is not holding up. The going then was peculiar and some horses revelled in it.
From the results this week it appears that the winners had harder races than perceived.The market looks about right to me – ie no value
Sea Moon, being 3 parts Brian Boru, will stay the extra 2f beyond the Voltigeur trip. But for the presence of Seville in the Voltigeur one might have asked was that a particularly strong group 2. But Seville’s top class Im4f form appears progressive in that he turned the tables on Treasure Beach in France.
Seville was never going to have the gears to win over 1m4f at the highest level. Being Galileo/Silver Hawk/Niniski he was born a Cup horse, another Yeats maybe. Might even lack the toe for 1m6f. A strong pace, rain and a driving headwind, slow times earlier on the card and maybe. Any factors making it a dour slog, no gears required.
The Brown Panther/ Masked Marvel/ Census muddly form line is what it is – Group 3 class. Yes Census looks like the one who might be progressive out of this rank but I can’t have any of them.
The big imponderable is attempting to assess the relative merits of the fillies v the colts this classic generation. Dettori described himself as ‘nervous’. Which isn’t something you often hear him say. Godolphin do seem to have an increasing fondness for the staying types. I think Blue Bunting likely to get 1m6f but I’d be less confident of her doing so than Sevile or Sea Moon. Also, particularly in The Oaks, I’m not entirely convinced by her running style – seems to run in snatches a little. So, despite the fillies allowance feel she might get out-toughed by Seville and Sea Moon.
Sea Moon seems the most likely winner but 2/1 would be a shade too short I’d say and place only Seville might be more attractive particular if a strong headwind materialises.
Blue Bunting has speed enough to win a Classic over 8 furlongs, and stamina enough to win a Classic, and another well-contested all-aged Group 1, over 12 furlongs. She is still progressing judged by the the way she beat Banimpire and Wonder Of Wonders in the Yorkshire Oaks. Each of her wins has been only by a length or less, which looking only at the positive side, indicates a filly who is determined and tough. I think she has all the attributes to win the St Leger.
Sea Moon has drifted alarmingly in a short space of time. Makes you wonder if all is well.
There might be a chance he won’t act on good-firm, but 2/1 is surely an over-reaction. May be Laddies just want to be top price on the favourite for their race.
Value Is EverythingThe fact that Ladbrokes have eased him from 11/8 to 2/1 is a massive sign in my opinion. Something is not at all right. They aren’t called The Magic Sign for nothing . .
You have to go back to Nedawi to find a St Leger winner with so little racecourse experience. That was a particularly poor field he faced as he was sent off favourite.
Sea Moon may be able to win but the bookies are keen to lay such an inexperienced horse hence the drifting price to somewhere approaching what it should be. SMS said he enjoyed the underfoot conditions at York which are vastly different to Doncaster so far this week, also he was given a tender ride by Richard Hughes. If he got a few nudges from some of the seasoned campaigners tomorrow then the horse might develop some new ideas about racing. Peslier is a good jockey but I dont expect him to be done any favours by the home contingent.
Suspect Laddies have been talking to the owners rep. Teddy G will probably play down Sea Moon’s chance on The Morning Line and say they’re worried about the ground.
With Mike Dillon’s Coolmore connection, could also be significant they’re top price on Seville.
Seems I have no chance of a winner.
Value Is EverythingSea Moon’s inexperience should be a positive not a negative.
Bearing in mind inexperienced horses are more likely to improve and make bigger leaps in progression.
Most inexperienced horses go in to this race needing to improve greatly to win.
Yet Sea Moon goes in to this already with the best form.Going may be a bigger worry.
Value Is EverythingWell, I’ve had my 2nd biggest bet ever – £40 double Sea Moon 11/8 and Fame and Glory 4/5.
I’m not saying
Sea Moon
is a good price, and the drifting is a slight concern, but Stouty is never overconfident so I don’t think you can read too much into his lack of enthusiasm.
Sea Moon may prefer softer turf but I think genuine good ground is fine. There is also a hailstorm scheduled for 1pm at Doncaster.
I just feel the horse can outclass these beats and mark himself down a genuine Arc contender – and with the ground likely to be soft there, potentially the fav after the Leger.
I wouldn’t put anyone off Blue Bunting who is so game and done me a few favours this season.
However, for the forecast I pick Census who is gonna be loving it up that straight.
Zip
I do not understand why connections think firming ground will be a problem, I think Sea Moon will cope fine if no rain arrives. 2/1 seems generous for a colt that destroyed the Great Voltigeur field and was eased down. If Seville ran to form that day (which is a question) then a repeat of the York running and Sea Moon wins. I think there is enough priced into 2/1 to allow for those doubts.
The other I like the price of is 14/1 Brown Panther. There is not a lot between BP, Masked Marvels and Census and so since they are 14/1, 9/1 and 6/1 accordingly I am going to take a slice of Brown Panther today and hope that Kieran Fallon can eake out a few bonus lengths!!
Brown Panther looks to me as if he would be better dropped in trip and post Ascot does not look good enough anyway. If he isn’t up to it that should rule out both Census and Masked Marvel. Not sure why having been unsuccessful all season Seville should take this unless the Pricewise selection just happens to coincide with the one win in a season (see Tominator and Fulgar). That leaves Sea Moon and Blue Bunting but at 2/1 and 7/2 neither appear to represent any value.
Blue Bunting has speed enough to win a Classic over 8 furlongs, and stamina enough to win a Classic, and another well-contested all-aged Group 1, over 12 furlongs. She is still progressing judged by the the way she beat Banimpire and Wonder Of Wonders in the Yorkshire Oaks. Each of her wins has been only by a length or less, which looking only at the positive side, indicates a filly who is determined and tough. I think she has all the attributes to win the St Leger.
They say she’s gone in her coat – like a ‘hyena’
She couldn’t be called the freshest – a long season. Good filly if she wins.Suspect Laddies have been talking to the owners rep. Teddy G will probably play down Sea Moon’s chance on The Morning Line and say they’re worried about the ground.
With Mike Dillon’s Coolmore connection, could also be significant they’re top price on Seville.
Seems I have no chance of a winner.
I shouldn’t worry about them standing out on Seville – so long as their press ads banner headline ‘Sea Moon 2/1’ draws in enough revenue, they’ll still have Seville running for them. I’ll never forget how the Rock of Gibraltar guineas was stitched up. Laddies stood 10s that day – Hawk Wing the cash cow favourite.
I could follow with a ‘market making’ point here but let’s just say AOB admits they’d not done much with Seville before the Voltigeur; the pace was stop start that day but today there are two pacemakers into a bit of a headwind so totally diferent kettle. I now see some value. I’ll be with the sponsors.
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