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I’ve been on Seville for a long time. Hope they put headgear on him and race prominently. If so he can come back to form. However, will need to be something special to beat an in form Sea Moon.
Just seen the forcast for Saturday. Very strong headwind will make it very difficult for prominent runners.
Value Is EverythingSea Moon has to win this.
Such a woeful race this is for a Classic Group 1 year in year out. Might see a good winner from BB or SM.
"Woeful race" Ruby? we have the Irish Oaks winner and Sea Moon who (according to Timeform) put up the best performance by any middle distance three year old this season. Then there’s the Irish Derby second Seville….
On paper this looks a very good St Leger!
And at least it is a "Classic", unlike the Irish version.
Value Is EverythingAfter Sea Moon won at York, I said there and then that he’d take all the beating in the St. Leger. He looks tailor made for the job.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Really looking forward to the race…Blue Bunting adds an extra bit if interest. Who was the last filly to win it?
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Just seen the forcast for Saturday. Very strong headwind will make it very difficult for prominent runners.
Doubt the headwind will have much effect – 4 races today won by prominent runners, 2 led all the way – and it’s only for the last 4 of the 14.5f anyway.
Blue Bunting will likely place and not win. Sea Moon is too short for me. Brown Panther and Masked Marvel, both EW.
All the winners of this race since 1990 had two previous runs prior to the race over 1m4f – all those who hadn’t were beaten, –> Sea Moon (plus other negs)
No girl winner since 1992 –> Blue Bunting
First 2 plenty vulnerable imv
I see you like stats
BIG BUCKS
Try these stats for size
9 out of 10 winners have ran no further than 12 furlongs the only exception was Mastery who ran in the Group 3 Queen Vase race and finished 3rd of 14 to Holberg details provide by this link: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result … s=ANALYSIS
8 out 10 winners won at 11 or 12 furlongs and no further in this stage of their career (7 at 12)
The exceptions areBRIAN BORU
who didn’t win as a 3 year old before the St Leger, same for
BOLLIN ERIC
All tried in Group 2 or higher company with 8 being successful in Group 3 or above, 6 in Group 2 and only 2 in Group 1
2001 Milan ran in a group 1 race but was successful group 2 race.
2002 Bollin Eric ran in a group 2 race but was successful in a class 2, 2YO Handicap race.
2003 Brian Boru ran in a group 1 race and won it (as a 2YO)
2004 Rule of Law ran in a group 1 race successful in a group 2 race.
2005 Scorpion ran in a group 1 race and won it (French Longchamp)
2006 Sixties Icon ran in a group 1 race successful in a group 3 race
2007 Lucarno ran in a group 1 race successful in a group 2 race
2008 Conduit ran in a group 2 race successful in a group 3 race.
2009 Mastery ran in a group 1 race successful in a group 2 race.
2010 Arctic Cosmos ran in a group 2 successful in a class 4 3YO handicapAll these stats point to Blue Bunting, Genius Beast & Sea Moon
After 2 good wins at Doncaster today Alanza ( thanks darren83 ) and one of my own selection Meeznah i’ve gone for a big bet for me with todays profits 300 on Sea Moon. Cant see any reason why it wont run a huge race. I do always seem to get it wrong when putting good money down
Not a stats man red rum
your post shows how they can become turned into anything the poster wishessome are crucial, others not
the two i posted merely refocus some run-away talking lacking substance
Census all day for me…saver masked marvel, but i might be wrong
Not a stats man red rum
your post shows how they can become turned into anything the poster wishessome are crucial, others not
the two i posted merely refocus some run-away talking lacking substance
Census all day for me…saver masked marvel, but i might be wrong
You are perfectly right, BB, but 1992 since a female horse won a bit flimsy to say the least.
I think Sea Moon from Blue Bunting but the third is anyones I suggest Genius Beast (place only, if you can get it) EW if not.
wouldn’t say flimsy, plenty have tried, including the top-class Epsom Oaks winning Snow Fairy last year, it’s clearly very hard for the girls to win, in ‘modern times’.
Of course BB could do it, interesting that John Gosden thinks Leger winners need a turn of foot, as all BB will be doing is staying on dourly, so she has it all to do perhaps, on drying ground?
Should be a good race good luck yerself
Snow Fairy didn’t stay the trip last year. She’d already outrun her pedigree by some way winning at 12 furlongs, let alone 1m6f132y. Snow Fairy was by miler Intikhab out of miler (if that) Woodland Dream who was by miler Charnwood Forest. She didn’t get beat because she is a "girl".
Fillies have run some decent races in the Leger. Including another filly owned by Shiekh Mo who’d won a Guineas and Oaks Oh So Sharp.
Blue Bunting is by Dynaformer, one of the best stamina influences standing in the USA, who’s already been responsible for Leger winner Lucarno. Although the unraced dam is by mile to 10 furlong horse Linamix; she’s sister to middle-distance/stayer Mister Kick. So there is a fair amount of stamina in the pedigree. Added to that she’s a lazy type and relaxes well. Probable stayer. Whether she’d be good enough to beat a top form Sea Moon or back to form Seville is debatable. Then again, Blue Bunting does only just do enough in her races and may be better than form suggests.
Value Is EverythingIndeed she gets stronger the longer the race, but she has nothing at all to fear from Seville who’s a hound, while she can outstay Sea Moon..but she herself will need softer ground..
Do like Census, Brown Panther and Masked marvel, but those three are all bulked in to one form line. Brown Panther beat Census at Ascot, Masked Marvel beat Census at Newmarket and then Census beat Brown Panther at Newbury. Although all three are capable of improvement, you’d have to think if one was going to win the other two would have to be fairly close up.
As for which of them is the best… I believe Census has improved since Ascot and Newmarket where he did wander quite badly. Hughsie kept to the rail at Newbury, may be that is important to him. Really good looking colt. So probably has a touch better form and more scope for improvement than the other two. However, bookmakers seem to think that too. 5/1 looks too short. Not absolutely certain to stay, by Group 1, 11f Man ‘O War Stakes winner Cacique. Dam sister to Godolphin Italian Group 1, 12f winner Leadership. Dam’s sire Selkirk a miler himself, often got horses who stay a fair bit further. Census runs as though he’ll get the trip.
Masked Marvel has potential, unraced since the Bahrain Trophy. Faltered close home there after looking likely to win easily. Doesn’t make a sure-fire stayer but by the best stamina influence around Monjeu (yet doesn’t seem to have the quirks of many progeny). Out of a Mark Of Esteem mare so is another from the Northern Dancer / Mill Reef lineage. Dam Waldmark was second in both listed 10f Newbury Oaks Trial and Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. Grand-dam (by Acatanango) won German St Leger on soft ground. So has breeding to get the trip, but not necessarily run style.
Brown Panther is rightfully outsider of these three, but should not be around double the price of Masked marvel and three times Census on the exchanges. May be punters don’t like Kingscote being replaced by Fallon.
Census won well at Newbury but Brown Panther got a poor ride, in contrast to Germany given plenty to do. Would’ve been closer. Impressive on soft going at Royal Ascot although also successful on good-firm. Whether massive improvement was due to give underfoot remains to be seen. Looks sure to stay, being by Breeders Cup Turf and Coronation Cup winner Shirocco (needed 12f). Out of 12f winner Treble Heights, also runner up in Group 2 over 13f110y. Dam sire Unfuwain a similar type to Shirocco, never won a Group 1, but certainly that class and half brother to Nashwan and Nayef.Value Is Everything
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