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I realise it is early in the season to be discussing this BUT despite the decent trials still to be run and the fact that we have the Derby to take place there are 2 horses that have caught the eye.
The first is from the Henry Cecil yard, this lad was impressive enough on debut despite running extremely green and following home a decent looking stable companion. SOLAR SKY [/color:crnekgse]looks like he will stay all day and hopefully he will come out and win a decent race NTO. The yard generally like to educate their young horses so he may take in a maiden before going up in grade but if he goes straight up you can take that as a tip in itself from the great man that is Henry Cecil.
The second horse is from the current Mr St Leger himself ‘John Gosden’!! He did us all a humungous favour last season with Arctic Cosmos who trounced the opposition with consumate ease at a very very generous price. NATHANIEL[/color:crnekgse] could well win today and also run a decent race in the Derby despite not quite being good enough but he looks like the Leger trip could suit.
2 to keep an eye on as the market forms.
Good Luck
Have a look at sire-damsire crosses with Galileo. If there’s even a breath of stamina on the conduit side, they’re essentially slow. Seville’s damsire is Silver Hawk, stamina index 11.x. He’ll be a Cup horse, mark my words.
You could, but Recital’s by Montjeu. The vast majority of his sons are stoutely bred but they’re just so classy they win over 12f and occasionally 10 1/2f too.
Haha sorry good point Zarakava! So you are saying the Monteu-Kendor nick is better for short distances than Galileo-Silver Hawk?
They both seem equally as stamina laden as each other to my eye! World Domination and Carlton House on the other hand have much more speed in their pedigrees, though still very unexposed types.
Dante will be exciting!
In pedigree terms, going on what similarly bred types have done, I’d far rather be on Recital than Seville for the Derby and any other 12f Group 1 this season. Recital would have no problem with further and if he’s unsuccessful over 12f at Epsom, The Curragh and Longchamp (GP de Paris), they’ll either give him the rest of the season off and bring him back as a 4yo (a la Jan Vermeer) or campaign him over further. I’d have thought they’ll do the latter as there’s little point in having 2 Cup horses.
Carlton House is interesting. His sire, Street Cry, is a Dubai World Cup winner but his stamina index is interestingly very low, just 7.9. That’s 0.1 higher than Pivotal, a Group 1-winning sprinter, and 0.2 less than Danehill Dancer, also a Group 1-winning sprinter.
But at the same time, he’s sired a Melbourne Cup winner. Ok, it’s run more like a 12f race, but Shocking’s dam ran 3 times over sprint distances without success and her sire is Danehill, and her dam ran only over 7 furlongs (the only run the RP database has recorded). So essentially next to no stamina there whatsoever in the dam side.
In Carlton House’s case, there’s a fair bit of stamina in the conduit side. The dam produced a 2-miler Listed-placed and ran over 1m 4f herself. Her sire’s Bustino, a St. Leger winner. He really should get the Derby trip and actually should in theory get the Leger distance, but as I said, Street Cry’s just a very strange sire. He could equally be a miler, but given the way he won his maiden, you’d think he’d have a fair bit of stamina. I believe that wide-margin maiden winners (5L+) generally win on their stamina rather than speed, so I wouldn’t be worried about the trip, I’d be worried about his class. His dam’s produced 6 previous horses, only 1 of which became Blacktype. Next best was a 27-raced miler who recorded a RPR of 102 early in his career. The dam was decent, won a Group 2.
Fair point Montjeus have an excellent record in the Derby to be sure. Anyway I suppose we shall see after Sunday what Recital is up to!
In pedigree terms, going on what similarly bred types have done, I’d far rather be on Recital than Seville for the Derby and any other 12f Group 1 this season.
Interesting Zarkava,personally i would favour the
Seville
bloodline anyday over Recitals for both the Derby and St Leger,however like the OP of this thread suggests
Nathaniel
would be my number 1 selection,particularly after his Chester effort this week had St Leger written all over it.
NATHAINIEL
SEVILLE
HURICANE HIGGINS.All horses i like and Zark do you change your trends for the ST Leger reason i ask is the last 3winners had all ran on the AW.
Conduit,Mastery and Arctic Cosmos.So do you look at 3yos who ran on the AW as well.No, because how could you justify it? Why must the horse have run on the AW to be considered as a Leger horse?
Wouldn’t want to touch Hurricane Higgins with anybody’s money. Looked less than willing yesterday.
Not about a horse that must of race on the AW. but last 3 winners had raced at 3 on the AW all i am saying.
Hurricane Higgins impressed me…..if they get his hanging sorted out he be a right Leger prospect
Does Aidan even aim horses for the Leger?
Very doubtful. The best Leger trials these days are the Dante, Derby, King Edward, Gordon Stakes and Voltigeur. Only Leger winner since 1995 not to run in one of those was Scorpion.
3 Leger winners ran in the Dante
6 Leger winners ran in the Epsom Derby
9 Leger winners ran in the King Edward
5 Leger winners ran in the Gordon Stakes
8 Leger winners ran in the Voltigeur
13 Leger winners ran in 2 of the above12 Leger winners ran in a Derby
Interestingly King Edward winners don’t win the Leger, but the 2nds, 3rds and 4ths do. Mutafaweq won both in 1999 but High Accolade was the only one one to attempt the double in 2003. He finished 2nd. None of the others were even aimed at the race.
I’m convinced there are some breeding trends but for the life of me I haven’t found them yet.
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