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Knew you would say that Zark, and I can’t disagree with you there. So which juvenile is the best we’ve seen this season??
What do you think about these races and my selections?* $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon – Got to be a euro here. Septimus if he runs, Kasbah Bliss if Septimus Doesn’t make it, and if both don’t than Father Time if Cecil Bothers. If it has to be a US horse, then Midhsips will be the one.
* $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Whatever the euros send over. Was hoping they’d send Lille Langtry over, but it might have to be a wait and see thing.
* $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) – Ventura might still be the one despite her indifferent form of late, as she’s obviously the best on her day and has done it all before.
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) – Hot Dixie Chick will likely be a big threat but i really like the way that Negligee caught She Be Wild yesterday and that will take a lot of beating.
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT) – Going with the euros here as long as they aren’t over the top, or likly to be. If Dar Re Mi turned up I would pick her, no hesitation. Shalyana isn’t going to come over, Forever Together was beaten again yesterday. Stacelita won’t overturn form with Dar Re Mi and most likely won’t come anyway. Look Here would need them to go off like Jumbo Jets, and even then the trip might still be too short. Rainbow View could make a really nice each way selection.
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (gr. I) – Zenyatta. What more can be said. Life Is Sweet might make a place, Careless Jewel’s form looks weak. Cocoa Beach might be value to get a place.Saturday
* $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IIT)- Pounced. Ran really well in the Prix Jean Luc last time out, and if he goes,. will have a fantastic chance. All other UK horses to have not run in Group/Sales races before that had been unplaced.
* $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I)- Erm… Colonel John might make it???
– Ah just seen the odds 
…. Midshipman at 10’s is value, as he handles the track, has the form and seems to be in good health. Capt. Candyman Can can has the form but looks like a non stayer to me, and Crown Of Thorns has won over the course.
* $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint –
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I)
* $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT)
* $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. IT)
* $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I)Will finish later in editt!! (Rushed for time)
Pathetic decision, absolutely pathetic. Proven totally correct by how poor Stacelita is, proven totally correct by doing a Dar Re Mi-Spanish Moon double and then you get this kind of [expletive] thrown at you, disgraceful.
I wonder if Sea The Stars will get thrown out if he beats Stacelita by a neck in the Arc. Embarrassing decision.
Well said. Also, i have to kind of disagree with you there about Stacelita, i think that she would have hacked up over 10f, so L’opera would be good for her.
Geddon Dar Re Mi – What a filly, she should go BC Filly & Mare Turf now as she’s in it. Staclita ran really well but was just outbattled by better horse – She should stay for the L’Opera on Arc day, will absolutely hack up.
I think that Balthazar’s Gift has to be backed e/w as he owes me nothing following his brilliant runs this season, which have earned me a fair bit. For the Win, it has to be Elusive Wave, class horse and well up to winning something like this if you take any of her 2 last runs.
Win: Elusive Wave
e/w: Balthazar’s GiftOther races.
Longchamp
1.15 – Prix Rochette (2 year olds)
Siyouni – Went down to a good horse last time out and looked like a superstar before that. Banker bet at 2/1.2.25 – Prix Du Pin
Proviso – Tricky to win with but her Prix Du Rothschild form entitles her to win this.
2 pts win. Maybe a small e/w on Secret Society.3.35 – Prix Du Lutece
Maighar. Could win a Gold Cup if he goes well enough. 4 pts win.3.45 Baden Baden
Could be a real cracker here. I’ve done this so many times with Youmzain. Does he want to win today?? Simple yes or no. If he does, it’s over. if not, lay him. I might have to be in the lay camp, seeing as Weiner Walzer and Getaway are both capable of winning this and as shown last time, will battle to the wire.
2 pt Lay Youmzain.
First of all Sea the Stars is a great horse.
I just cannot understand the tactics from the AOB horses AGAIN.
What is the point of having 2 horses running as if its a five furlong race ?
The main thing hard to understand though is why make Mastercraftsman, who is a miler, run quite close to a scorching pace and settle Fame and Glory, who is a mile and a half horse, behind Sea the Stars and try and do him for pace.
I would have thought it would have been better to put Fame and Glory where Mastercraftsman was in the race and vice versa.
I want to say again Sea the Stars is a great horse and maybe it would have not made a difference to the result at the end but it would surely have helped both of the main AOB horses.
Mastercraftsman will not run over a ten furlongs again as he does not stay and needs a break now anyway.
Fame and Glory must have a great chance in the arc now.
Don’t want to take way from a BRILLIANT performance but he got 1st run and was well beaten.
jukebox julry place lay big stake
Bad move IMHO. His Eclipse 6th is possibly the best piece of form in the race, and the extra distance can only help. Massive danger
:? i don’t know how any 1 can justify backing exposed below top class horses like Ask, Vision detat Casual Conquest who would need to find yet unseen improvement to win/place they are dreadful value especially place odds which most liely won’t happen anyway.
youmzain istheone to back at bigger and better/similar odds than those mentioned. He loves the track loves a fast gallop has good acceleration loves cut in the ground,doesn’t win the races his abilities deserves him to but if hes fit will give any1 a race. However having seen all of thehorses stacelita is the one for me unexposed who knows how good she is with cutin theground has shown ready speed though on faster ground althoughtheform is questionable butthat doesn’t undermine her she’s done it easily enough will race off bottom weight with improvement likely with and extra furlong or so.I’d have to agree, although i’d want to see 11/2 at least. Stacelita COULD be the one they have to catch, depends on weather it was just the super form of Jean Claude Rouget or her actual class. Despite her impressiveness, she’ll have to improve a lot on that to come close in an Arc IMHO. Great to see a big fan of her tough
I’ agree on the F&G point. Casual Conquest seems to need soft ground and can’t go more than 2 months without a run before he needs it.
Ask and Vision are good horses, and will go close, especially Vision. Youmzain is a storming place bet at all times, and a brilliiant lay too. He’ll go close.It’s not good to use GS as a formline in the KG for FAG/Conduit. F&G was value for more than his 5 length winning margin, is still quite unexposed (only 6 runs and 5 wins out of those) and the King George was a race too far for him IMHO, so he did well to finish 5th. Wait until something meets him in a trail. If I were to do something silly and use STS as a formline through Conduit in the Eclipse, i’d have F&G miles ahead.But the world and his dog now that over 1/12 miles, he’s a lot better than over 1f, especially with him being held up as far back as he was that day.
I backed Tartan Bearer in the possibility that STS might not run. There’s Old Vic is the MCM camp aswell. Oh they’re getting bigger in numbers. Can’t help but feel they will be dissapointed, but fair play anyway.
Racing’s all about opinions, and sometimes there are horses, that you just can’t get way from.I have to agree with Zarkava, this French Classic crop, (Le Havre, Cutlass Bay and Cavalryman apart IMHO) is the worst I’ve EVER seen tbh. And I’ve seen some bad classic crops.
How exactly those 3 apart, Our Vic? Mastery is the 5th favourite in a field of 7 for the Great Voltigeur. He ran in the Queen’s Vase, yet the best 3yo colt the French have to offer is a horse than beat him by 3 1/2L. And how exactly do you work out that Cutlass Bay and Le Havre are not appalling either? You’re talking about an unexposed Group 2 winner by Halling (how many Group 1 winners has he had in the past 10 years? 3?) and a French Derby winner whose form has been ripped up, chewed, spit out and stepped on. There are simply no exceptions. The worst crop this decade without a shadow of a doubt.
EDIT – Sorry, my bad, I knew Halling struggled for Group 1 winners but I didn’t realise Cavalryman was his first. I thought something had won one over 2 miles.
That’s the thing with Cutlass Bay though, he’s still unbeaten so until he gets beat, I can’t say for definite he’s rubbish. And he beat Cavalryman.
He was running under a penalty in the Queen’s Vase, he patently did’nt stay 2m and the team were in awful form IMHO. His 3rd last time is good enough to win a Group 2 IMO.
Le Havre, maybe different, still think he was good.
TAPK, are you in the MCM camp aswell ?
Add another MCM man here. Just such a nice horse to look at, very gusty and will love 10f on fast ground.
I have to agree with Zarkava, this French Classic crop, (Le Havre, Cutlass Bay and Cavalryman apart IMHO) is the worst I’ve EVER seen tbh. And I’ve seen some bad classic crops.
Prix Du Haras De Fresnay-Le-Buffard Jacques Le Marois (Group 1) (3yo+) (Colts & Fillies) (Straight)(3yo+) Winner £332,854
Ground: Good Trip: 1m number of runners: 9
3 pts win Golidkova
1 pt e/w Never On Sunday
Aqqlam: Still only relatively lightly raced for a horse that is 4 years old now, having only had 6 runs and it speaks a fair a bit about his ability that 2 of those have been in Group 1 company; Gave the impression that he was becoming a serious horse when running 3rd in the Queen Anne and then winning the Summer Mile afterward; That may not have been a brilliant renewal but worth another try in Group 1 company and not likely to be too far away.Virtual: Extended his owner’s fantastic record in Lockinge when wining it and taking his 1st Group 1 prize in the process at Newbury earlier on in the season on soft ground over this trip; Likely he found ground (and possibly trip) too far in Prince Of Wales’s and although that run best ignored, will have a tough task on his hands today.
Galditorious: Had always shown ability (2nd to Scintillo in Italian Group 1 as a juvenile) on his 1st stint with Godolphin before being transferred to Mubrak Bin Shyaifya, who would take the horse form relative obscurity to being the world best according to Timeform off the back of his stunning Dubai Duty Free win on World Cup Night, blazing off buy at least 6/7 lengths and never relinquishing that lead, beating one of the season’s best turf fields in the process; Well below that when 6th in Queen Anne, weakening in the straight, although the layoff may have been something to do with it (not to mention switching continents) ; Chance to bounce back to best here, and while it would be foolish to discount him today, has to be treated with caution.
Runaway: 5th in this last year and would have a chance if repeating his 3rd to the reopposing Never On Sunday: However that was a funny race with Goldikova (Dual Group 1 winner since) needing the run and being well below par that day, along with the ground being too heavy for a quite a few; Respected on his best, but even then he has to turn over the form with Never On Sunday.
Never On Sunday: Won 7 out of 1st nine races, inducing a Group 3 contest and a listed race; Looked to have found his limitations when 5th on comeback so Group 1 win in Prix D’Isphan, even allowing for the well below par performances of the main players in that race (probably due to the heavy ground; What makes him an even more appealing proposition here is the fact that he proved it was no fluke when getting to within about half a length of Vision D’Etat and Tartan Bearer in Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and any of those 2 run= make him a major player here.
Goldikova: Outstanding star filly/mare who already has 5 Group 1 wins to her name, with 2 wins in the Prix Rostchild, before taking the Moulin on her way to taking the Breeder’s Cup Mile in outstanding fashion; Disappointing when reappearing in Prix D’Isphan, 7th on heavy ground at Longchamp but right back to best when landing the Falmouth, never really overextending and same story except in much more impressive fashion last time out when taking the Rothschild for the 2nd year running, moving through 2 out to a comfortable success over French 1,000 Guineas winner Elusive Wave; Eased in last strides of that and capable of taking this.
Silver Frost: Came up short on both tries at Group 1 level in a busy juvenile campaign, but has gone from strength to strength this term and gained his first success at the top level in the French 1,000 Guineas after 2 slick wins from Milanis and Westphalia; Did’nt stay 10f in the French Derby, so his 6th wasn’t a bad effort; Big threat to Goldikova although there are worries of the strength of his classic win.Irian: Impressive winner of the German 2,000 Guineas from Zarfizio and Sri Putra (Winner since and runs in Group 2 earlier on the card) and improved on that when 3rd in Prix Jean Prat behind Lord Shanakill last time out; Winner had been well beaten in Sussex and while only lightly raced, hard to think he could do better than last time.
Only Green: Decent horse but here to be pacemaker today.
VERDICT: A strong renewal, with 5 separate Group 1 winners in the field, all of whom have gained one or more of their success I that sphere this year. The drop back to 1m should suit Silver Frost and he looks a solid place option in this. Also to be noted is Never On Sunday although the drop back to 1m is a concern for me. Galditorious would have the beating of all of these on his Dubai form, and it’s tempting to back him at 7/1 each way, given the form that his team. The seems to be about one horse though, and it looks like GOLIDOKVA is set to win her 6th Group 1 here.So that’s the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from the Irish Derby beaten with the latter 2 being beaten in Group 3s
Dire year for middle-distance 3yos, dire.
Which only helps FAG IMHO. If it;s as weak an Arc as you say, he”ll take some beating.
They won’t see the way Harbinger went if SMS is correct in saying he’s a better horse than last time.
Wouldn’t dream of betting against him and although Alwaary is a nice horse he was beaten more than 4 lengths and getting 12 lbs in the King George and QE. That’s along way when you consider how late it was Conduit got into top gear.
I’m very suspicious of Father Times form in the King Edward Vii. He won it easily enough but the second looks moderate, the 2rd came of worse of the AOB team in the Derby and the 4th got sruffed by Kitewood the other day.
It might not seem it just now but when Ryan Moore wins this in a canter 7/4 will seem a huge price.
I’ve backed him already and if things go well I’ll most likely back him again……….this is one very good horse.
Harbinger for me or did you guess already
I dunno. Yes he’s improving all the time, but this is a tough renewal of the Great Voltiegur this year with at least 2 Group 2 winners in the field, and 2 horses dropping back down form Group 1 company, one against older horses. The Gordon Stakes on the other hand was all about Harbinger, and the was’nt much stregth in depth to that, and you can guarantee that if any of Mastery, Alwarry, Father Time or co had turned up, they would have taken all the beating.
Well you can’t really call Sea The Stars a 12f horse given the way the Derby was run. IMO he still has it all to prove over the trip and many feel the same way.
As for Fame And Glory…the form book says no.
Hey Zarakva, glad to hear from you again but i have to disagree. He’s only done what’s been asked of him yet, and done it well. Yes we know the Irish Derby was’nt great (form been let down) but that was’nt the point IMHO. The point was that he went and won and he’s still improving,and should handle the Arc fine. The English Derby was a good field this year, and many might say that he would have won the Derby had the pace been stronger, which is a good sign considering that the race has worked out well. If it’s a dire year for the classic generation, that only helps him.
As for STS, the Derby for him was more about his class IMO and I don’t really think that it takes away form him that the race tuned out into a sprint seeing as he’s won an Eclipse in near record time afterwards off a strong pace, and the form has worked out well. I think it speaks more about his versatility if you ask me, so.
Concerning Harbinger, I don’t think he’s going to turn out to be the best 3 yr old we’ve seen over middle distances this year so far, unless he takes on a Group 1 contest. If he were to take this, that would mean he’d have to come under serious consideration for many major prizes later on, but he’s only won a Group 3 so far.
3.25 York
These are my thoughts on the race, personally I’ll just be supporting MCM and STS, and if STS wins, all the better for racing.Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
1m2f
Casual Conquest: Lightly-raced colt who won last season’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and went on to finish third behind New Approach in the Derby at Epsom and second to Frozen Fire in the Irish Derby; Got his 1st Group 1 in heavy ground in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, which suited him much better than when having been beaten by the Hardwicke winner Bronze Cannon in the Jockey Club Stakes on his seasonal debut; Was bitterly disappointing last time, even allowing for a penalty and suspicion is now that he needs cu in the Ground.Doctor Freemantle: High-class performer over this trip last year when fourth in the Derby after winning the Chester Vase, before then coming a good 4th in the GP De Paris, ending season on a low note due to inability to stay in St Ledger, fading into 8th; Just got away with drop back to 1m2f when making successful return at Chester last month (his second win there) and looked sure to make bold bid back over optimum trip at Royal Ascot; However drifted and then disappointed that day, before bouncing right back to something like his best when winning Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the July Meeting last time; Form of that race working out well since, with Schiparelli winning Goodwood Cup and Alwarry coming 4th in the King George, and Drumfire winning a Glorious Goodwood, along with the last 2 running 2-3 in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes; Suspicion that 1m2f will be too short for him today.
Forgotten Voice: Previously unbeaten horse who had impressed in his 3 wins and was sent off the handicap “good thing” at Royal Ascot in the Hunt Cup; Confirmed his promise with an impressive win; Was sent off a warm order for conditions contest 2 starts ago which he should have won, even allowing or the soft ground that night; Returned to something like his best when 4th in Sussex Stakes over 1m at Glorious Goodwood last time out, when 4th behind Rip Van Winkle; Doubtless that was a good effort, but more needed here and better waited with until dropped in class.
Georgebernardshaw: Been performing well in listed races recently but not exactly the most genuine horse we’ll ever meet and in as pacemaker here.
Mastercraftsman: Unbeaten in four races at The Curragh last season, including an impressive display when trouncing the Coventry Stakes winner Art Connoisseur on good to firm ground in the Phoenix Stakes, and claimed title of Champion 2 yr old with a Gutsy success in the National Stakes in deep ground at the Curragh, beating Shaweel and Arzan; Possible that victory took energy out of him, leaving him over the top when connections went once too much to the wishing well when disappointing fourth behind Naaqoos in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on final start last season; Only met with Sea The Stars once, when needing the run in the 2,000 Guineas; Came back with a bang with a masterful display in Irish Guineas, taking the lead from about 2 out and grinding all rivals into submission for a 4 and a half length victory, before putting doubts about faster ground to bed when getting up in last ½ furlong for a neck victory in St James’s Place Stakes, notching up his 4th Group 1 in the process; No doubt that this 10f trip will help a lot, and likely strong pace to play to his strengths.
Sea The Stars: Marked himself down as leading star of classics generation with remarkable Group 1 hat tick finished in great style and near course record time when beating Sussex Stakes winner Rip Van Winkle and King George winner Conduit last time out in the Eclipse, emulating Nashwan who pulled off the same hat trick which included wins in the 2,000 Guineas and Derby; His astonishing list of defeated rivals have got 18 wins between them (6 Group 1 wins), including, the Irish Derby, Sussex Stakes, King George Stakes, Betfair Cup, Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James’s Palace (1-2 in that event), Prix Jean Prat, Jersey Stakes, Prix Eugene Adam and Rose Of Lancaster Stakes; Over 10f here, is going to be hard to beat.Set Sail: Funny story about this horse, who cost Seamus Heffernan 300 Euros when hanging in a conditions contest last time; Pacemaker for Mastercrafstman today.
Tartan Bearer: Never won a Group 1, although he has come mightily close and arguably would have taken all the beating in races like the Coronation Cup; Dante winner and 2nd and 3rd in the Derby and Irish Derby in what was a progressive classic season; One gets the feeling he would have gone a lot close to winning if he hadn’t been so badly interfered with at the Curragh; Returned with a good win in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown, only just getting up over 10f that day; Subsequently sent off a warm order for the Prince Of Wale’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran a good race to finish 2nd to Ganay & Prix Du Jockey Club winner Vison D’Etat in the circumstances; Stepped back up to 12f to finish 2nd in King George, a good effort and not to be discounted with the extra half furlong (Only won twice at 10 furlongs) in his favour.
Verdict: This trip is likely to prove short for Casual Conquest, and he wants ground faster than this too. Doctor Freemantle’s latest victory was as good as we’ve seen form him, but this is a very though task. Forgotten Voice could well impprove for the step up, but even his Sussex 4th isn’t really good enough here. With Set Sail and Georgebernardshaw as pacemakers, Matsercraftsman could be primed to go very close here, especially stepping up to 10f for the 1st time. There is no real obvious alternative from the 4 in a row seeking SEA THE STARS, and if he won, it would be good for racing. The obvious e/w selection is Tartan Bearer, who at 11/2 or 7/1 with a strong pace and 10 ½ furlongs should run well.
– Ah just seen the odds 
…. Midshipman at 10’s is value, as he handles the track, has the form and seems to be in good health. Capt. Candyman Can can has the form but looks like a non stayer to me, and Crown Of Thorns has won over the course. 
