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I myself think that STS and Rip Van Winkle.Will not run in the Arc do any of you guys agree with me.
Yes. Both trainers have already said that they have different t targets.
Cutlass Bay’s out til next season.
Out of interest, is anybody taking Cavalryman as a serious contender for the Arc?
Yes, but I don’t think he’ll win tbh. I want to see how he gets on in the Niel and how the form works out.
I think Equi has every right to sniff about. Didn’t somebody tell OV off for copying a race preview from another website? Personally I don’t care as I don’t read them anyway.
Profound Beauty need only finish the race off in good-and-sound fashion to trot in the Melbourne Cup.
This has nothing to do with the MELBOURNE CUP!!!! The title says it all!!! If you don’t read them, don’t judge. And no, he doesn’t have "every right" to "sniff around" – For what??
Am I the only one who thinks that Fame and Glory will go very close in the Arc, and that 7/1 Conduit, 12/1 Vision D’Tat, 25/1 Ask + Youmzain are a bit too big.
Hardly a witch hunt, Fist, and I’m fairly sure that, were your job to preview races of interest, you wouldn’t want someone of Old Vic’s ilk passing your work off as his own.
I am NOT "ilk" – I have copied and pasted to start some good debate on here before, and I don’t know why Zarkava used my Coventry preview to highlight that, as I wrote that myself. He should have used my Wokingham preview.
Is it a co-incidence that your write-up is significantly shorter when no other site has previewed the race?
Sariska will muller this lot, though I expect Lady Marian to improve on her latest sixth behind Goldikova now back up in trip.
No coincdence here. Are you suggesting i’m a massive copycat??
That was a BRILLIANT performance. Great ride from Borel, and what a turn of foot to take a 6 length lead into the straight.
Summer Bird ran a very respctable race to take 2nd, and it will be suprising if he can’t take another good race this season, and more Group 1 success is not out of the question, with it being more a where and when, not an if mattter.
In my opionion, Munnings is proving value for his $1,700,000,000 price tag. This was an admirable pace setting performance from him and he could take a Grade 1 where the empasis is on speed over a trip about 1 – 1/2 furlongs shorter.
All in all, what a filly.
2.55 Deauville
Prix De Cabourg (Group 3) (2YO only)
Winner €40,000 – 5 run4 pts win Socriere
Zazibari: Impressive winner on debut before then being beaten by Boltcity last time out; Hard to see him reversing the form.Bolcity: Really come on a lot for his reappearance by bolting up in his next race, before then just getting the better of Zaznibar; Lot to like about him here and capable of taking a step up in class.
Had the measure of a listed winner, and a good one at that when mastering Colonial 1st time out; Disappointing when put back into fillies company when readily beaten by Wonderfilly( 5th in Prix Robert Papin); Winner last time out but others preferred.
Wonderfilly: Easily had measure of Lixirova 2 runs ago but well beaten in Prix Robert Papin behind Special Duty; No doubting that this drop in class will suit but even tough task on.
Sorciere: Impressive debut win has worked out very well, with the 2nd winning the Prix Robert Papin and the 3rd finishing 2nd in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Has a lot of scope for improvement and well up to taking this.
Verdict: 11/8 represents a fair measure of SOCRIERE’S form chances.
Here’s a preview I put together…..
3.35 Deauville
Prix D’Astarte (Group 1) (Straight Mile) (3YO plus)
Winner €142,850 – Ground: SoftProviso: Has always delivered a little bit less than she’s promised, namely when stepped up to Group 2 or 1 company; Best win is only actually a Group 3 as a juvenile, and apart form that she has 2 conditions contests and a listed win to her name; Ran good race in the Prix D’Isphan 2 runs ago but was appauling at Ascot last time out and readily overpassed here.
Danse Grecque: Came very close to getting a big win the Pirx Corrida last time out and that represents a big step forward for here, and that form has been boosted by the winner going on to be 2nd in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud; However looks to have this trip on the short side judging by her performance and race history (Started racing over 1m6f and never raced less than 9f)
Lady Marian: Rapidly improving for Walter Bortmei last season, taking a Group 3 event with ease on her way to taking the German Oaks and the last year’s L’Opera; Switched to Godolphin for a crack at the Dubai Duty Free but disappointed, probably needing the run; Suspicion will be that this trip (only raced over it twice, never won on it) will be too short for her.
Testamata: Been running in low grade contests since coming to the De Vicotre yard and ran above herself when 4th in Prix Fer Du Nord; Surprise if she’s good enough.
Saphresa: Ahead of Testamata last time out in Prix Fer Du Nord and has run some very respectable races in her times, being twice a listed winner; Good 2nd in above race behind Beacon Lodge but progress to make to take a hand here.
Eva’s Request: Made some good progress this season with a listed and Group 3 win and was still going places when 3rd behind Heaven Sent and Spacious; 7th in Falmouth last time takes the shine off and while valid contender, not much to suggest she can win this.
Golidova: Outstanding star filly/mare who already has 4 Group 1 wins to her name, with wins in this last year, before taking the Moulin on her way to taking the Breeder’s Cup Mile in outstanding fashion; Disappointing when reappearing in Prix D’Isphan, 7th on heavy ground at Longchamp but right back to best when landing the Falmouth last time, never really overextending; Has a favourite’s chance in a winnable race.
Homebound: Never really been tested so far in her career until last time out, when getting the better of Coronation Stakes 2nd Reggane in the Prix Sandringham; Was also a decent 4th in the Prix La Grote on debut so no shortage of strong form for this runner and definte chance here, so one to be wary of.
Reggane: Only 3 starts and has already finished 2nd in a Group 1 and Group 2, to add to her impressive debut win; Suffered a big of interference when 2nd in the Coronation Stakes and did have to be switched wide, which makes her fast closing 2nd all the better; Should have big chance here.
Lalaheeb: Has come very close to winning a Group 1, when getting to within ½ a lengths of Again in the Irish 1,000 Guineas; Reversed that form when 5th in the Coronation, which wasn’t a half bad effort by her standards; Soft ground will be a massive help and big run not ruled out today.
Elusive Wave: Smart juvenile for Richard Hannnon who has improved for switch to Jean Claude Rouget, staying on in Prix Marcel Boussac; Gained smart wins in trial for the French 1,000 Guineas and main event,, admittedly under perfect front running ride; Went to Ascot to take on English and Irish Guineas winners in Conration and finished 4th; Possible that being challenged for the lead and and fast ground didn’t help he that day and chance here if back to Guineas winning form.
Only Green: Is a listed winner but in here to set good gallop for Golidkova.
VERDICT: The ease with witch GOLDIOVA won the Falmouth stakes was pretty impressive and she looks to have an outstanding chance here. 11/8 is no gift, but it’s hard to see her being beaten, with is testament to her quality, despite the strength of this field. I can’t see why HOMEBOUND is as big as 10/1 with Hills, having beaten subsequent Coronation Stakes 2nd Reggane last time out. The latter names should go well here, and it’s no certainty that she will uphold form with Elusive Wave from the Conration Stakes, with a softer surface. Also worthy of mention are the 2 Mick Channon trend Challengers, Lalaheeb being of huge interest, as she is a proven soft ground performer. She could snatch a place. Eva’s Request has a hard task on her to reverse form with Golidokova.
"You would never know what was going on at Ballydoyle but I hope for their sake they have some better 2yo’s, than we have seen so far, if they are expecting to take the first classic next season" – Fist
I think that they do. Cape Blanco and Steinbeck have been impressive and as for hims form not being worth anything, all he could do was beat them as he did and King Ledley was well beaten by Steinbeck.
"This Alfred won well yesterday but all but one of the horses failed to act on the heavy ground. He beats his own stable companion who might be bordering on decent in heavy ground and we got AOB saying "This is a right horse" It was a bloody awful Group 1" – Fist
May have been a weak renewal of the Phoenix but Alfred Nobel did win it in the style of a horse that was better than this field by some way, will surely pick up the National stakes if nothing turns up.
Enjoyable as it was to watch, did we actually learn much from that race, other than Conduit was clearly in good heart when cuffed in the Eclipse?
Are you telling us or asking us Friggo?.
SMS clearly stated the horse wasn’t at his best at the Eclipse and whatever he did today he would be a better horse in the Autumn.
There’s way too much Seathestarsitis on here
Seriously though there are a couple of ways at looking at this.
Golden Sword was an AOB outsider for the Derby and it could be he really isn’t that good and was flattered by his proximity to Sea the Stars. If he was then the fact Conduit beat him about 8 lengths today means nothing.
However if he was flattered was Fame and Glory also flattered when he beat Golden Sword? Because if the former is to be believed Fame and Glory has beat sweet nothing in the Irish Derby.
Personally I have never rated Golden Sword very highly and the Derby was a complete farce. My only concern today is AOB would turn this race into a farce as well.
In a normal Derby I doubt if he would have got within 5 or 6 lengths of the winner and all lines through Golden Sword should really be ignored.
Golden Sword has been touted as a St Leger horse for some time now but I’m damned if I can see where people get that from.
I am still not convinced this years crop is that good and there nothing SMS need to fear in the Arc. The outstanding performer has been Sea the Stars and someone should tell Bosranic he won’t run in the Arc
Without being influenced by SMS’s words I thought Conduit still looked a bit undercooked today. He took a bit of time to get into top gear and wasn’t travelling as well as Tartan Bearer coming off the home turn. Once he got going the result was never in doubt and he’s certainly improved ffor the trip and his run in the Eclipse..
I sincerely doubt if Fame and Glory could quite handle him off a strong gallop in the Arc. I’ve always thought he lacks just that little bit of Zip when it comes to finishing speed…Ask has been in top form this year and was beaten 3 3/4 lengths in last years Arc. If SMS is correct and the best is still to come from Conduit he must be a huge threat to all in the Arc. Thankfully I grabbed the 14/1 about him as he is now half those odds and another win like today’s and he’ll shorten up even more and it will take a bloody good horse to beat him in France.
Tartan Bearer stayed on better thn I thought he would and got the trip well. I don’t know if he would in a really strong run race but he certainly did today. At first glance I thought he tried to bite Ask but when I looked again it was Conduit’s backside that smcked him on the nose and threw his head to the side. RM got a harsh ban as Ian points out.
"I sincerely doubt if Fame and Glory could quite handle him off a strong gallop in the Arc. I’ve always thought he lacks just that little bit of Zip when it comes to finishing speed." – Fist
F&G needs a strong gallop, which he will get in the Arc. Also to his liking (or at least more than firmish ground) is a soft surface. With a proper pace, he would have been closer to Sea The Stars at Epsom and on that run alone (with improvement need) he could take a big hand in an Arc.
"Ask has been in top form this year and was beaten 3 3/4 lengths in last years Arc. If SMS is correct and the best is still to come from Conduit he must be a huge threat to all in the Arc. Thankfully I grabbed the 14/1 about him as he is now half those odds and another win like today’s and he’ll shorten up even more and it will take a bloody good horse to beat him in France." – Fist
I agree totally, also, there’s the added fact that he’ll be at his peak (or near it) at Arc time.
If that was run at a fast pace why were the runners on top of each other turning in? They went slowly early, the pacemaker eventually quickened it up but nobody followed him. By the time Golden Sword did chase the pace he had no break on the field and insufficient pace to create one. It looks from the outside as if Ballydoyle actually believed he might have been a 1m2f horse.
If that’s the case, then this Conduit is a serious, serious horse (His previous performances might have hinted at that though).
My thoughts:
4 pts win Sariska
1 pt e/w Oh Goodness Me (Or Toteswing the 2)
Beauty O’Gawun: Confirmed promise shown by gritty win on only start at 2 when putting her head down to land Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes, looking every inch as though she’ll improve for step up in trip and bred to do so; Will improve off the back of that but needs to, as the form of that race has fallen to pieces; Would be one to take advantage of soft – heavy groundBelle Chose: Got off the mark in handicap company latest, beating Ravati by 2 lengths; But long way out of her depth here, and all due respect to the connections, here to make up the numbers.
Chirkova: Showed useful form towards the back end of her juvenile career and made pleasing reappearance when 4th in listed race, but had limitations exposed when 10th in Gallinule Stakes and set to be pacemaker for Roman Empress .
Destined For Fame: Miracle aside, Destined For Supporting Role here.
Grace O’Malley: Only raced once at 2, winning a maiden shaping as though she’d improve with time and step up in trip (also bred to do so) ; Left impression that she’d not trained on when a well beaten 6th behind Fame And Glory in Ballysax Stakes well behind her when landing Noblesse Stakes in taking style; Form of that race not looking particularly strong for a Group 3 but shown she’ll stay trip and open to further improvement.
Midday: She showed how good she could be when finishing a close up 4th in good renewal of Montrose Stakes on her final Juvenile run behind Enticement, with the likes of Super Sleuth (3rd in 1,000 Guineas, 2nd in Fred Darling Splashdown, (Winner of Lord Weinstock Memorial Stakes), and not far in front of her; Took another step forward when coming a nice 2nd to Debussy in the Blue Riband trial, before really jumping into Oaks Picture when slamming field in Lingfield Oaks trial; Well backed for the Oaks (Sent off 11/4 2nd fav) and ran a cracker to finish 2nd after being interfered with, only being beaten a nose in the end; However was beaten pretty convincingly by Sariska (reopposes here) and did have the advantage of handling the track at Epsom (shown she had handled it at Lingfield previously) while Sariska (Caused interference by rolling into others) didn’t; Back to a much more galloping, conventional stiffer track here and may be hard pressed to improve past her conqueror today.
Oh Goodness Me: Ran all but one bad race on her juvenile season, improving for step up in trip and already showing a preference for soft ground and middle distances, the best of her efforts being to 2nd’s to Turin Lady and especially Mourayan at the back end of last season; Shown she had trained on and looked set for big classic season with 1st pattern success over Fiery Red and Mad About You to being her 3 yr old campaign; Looked to have had her limitations shown with 9th in French 1,000n Guineas, before then bouncing right back to come 3rd in Irish 1,000 Guineas behind Again and Lalaheeb; Disappointing in the Oaks but that run could be put behind her due to a disliking for firm ground and track; Already proved herself to be a classy sorts, although just how classy after a mix of indifferent efforts in Group 1 company, having had valid excuses each time is still an unknown. Following the subsequent efforts of the front 2, the Irish 1,000 Guineas has proved to be on the face of it what looks a weak renewal, and her trainer form since could have bean a cause for concern, but trainer did win a Group 3 yesterday with Three Rocks; One to give big thought to.
Roman Empress: Raced only once at two, though started current campaign with good home reputation, only to disappoint when favourite for a Leopardstown maiden; Won her maiden in good style at limerick last time but needs much more to be involved at this level and didn’t show she had found that when last but one in Pretty Polly Stakes.
Rory Anna: Does’nt seem to look like she’d up to this level, and will be hard pressed to find improvement to turn around the tables with Grace O’Malley form their running last time.
Roses For The Lady: Took a long time to come to hand at 2, singing off for the season with a 5th in Leopardstown maiden behind Casual; Got up in soft ground conditions to beat Jakrta Jazz by a head on her seasonal debut before running solid but slightly disappointing 3rd in Cheshire Oaks to Perfect Ruth; Didn’t impove on that form when 5th in Nobelesse Stakes behind Grace O’Malley and hard to see her winning on that form.
Sariska: Some (including Michael Bell) have always had a very high opinion of this horse and she gave impression of big things to come when landing her only start at 2 in good style when showing the speed to land a maiden over 7f (Stamina on dam’s side in large amounts despite being by Pivotal); That gave many people a big sing that she was a classic filly and she showed more talent with a good 4th in the Fred Darling; Stepped up a gear with win in the Musidora Stakes at York, comfortably coming home 3 lengths clear of Star Ruby and as a result of that was well backed to land Oaks success and duly delivered, travelling well but never handling the track, idling when she hit the front and in the process and then rolling down the camber to interfered with 5 of the 10 runners, before then showed plenty of resolution to fight off a renewed challenge from Midday and prevail by a head; In a perfect world, connections would prefer decent ground for Sariska but she is a daughter of Pivotal – (who do handle easy conditions – and she was impressive on debut last November at Newmarket when the ground was on the slow side). She has the form, proven she can battle and her class can get her through although ground conditions maybe less than ideal.
Verdict: An intriguing Irish Oaks, and the race which will decide the top 3 yr old filly in Britain and Ireland this season over middle distances, Stacelita looking like a supreme type over in France, and Ghaanati looking to have the 1 – 1m2f division sown up as far as filles are concerned. The only filly who has on what we’ve seen so far who is capable of winning a Group 1 is SARISKA, having taken her own Group 1 prize when landing the Oaks last time out from Midday, Although on 1st evidence that doesn’t look a strong renewal, the form still looks head and shoulders above any of the other opponents here. Midday is sure to be close again but she doesn’t have some of the advantages that she had last time. John Oxx holds the best hopes of a home victory with Beauty O’Gwaun. She is unbeaten in two starts and a promising prospect but will need to take another step up from her win in a Group 3 in May, and with that form being battered since, she has a tough task, although she’s expected to improve for the step up in trip and is very unexposed. Looking at the race from a betting point of view, taking prices into account there are 2 each – way prospects in the race. Oh Goodness Me has already proved herself to be a classy sorts, although just how classy after a mix of indifferent efforts in Group 1 company, having had valid excuses each time is still an unknown. Following the subsequent efforts of the front 2, the Irish 1,000 Guineas has proved to be a weak renewal on the face of recent runs from that race. She could well be the e/w value at 14/1. Grace O’Malley is improving all the time and a big run can’t be ruled out, especially as her Group 3 win does look like being stronger form than most others in this race have to offer. Ballydoyle have won the last 3 runnings of this and while Roman Empress has to be respected, she has to impove about 2 stone on official ratings, and her pacemaker Chirokova won’t be winning. In all honesty, the rest of the field are there to make up the numbers.
4/1 Sea The Stars – Won’t go, but if hes does, he take a lot of beating.
6/1 Stacelita – Could still be anything, and will love this longer trip. However, as with Zarkava last year, we don’t know what her from is worth, and how she’ll perform when the stable isn’t in red – hot form. IMHO she’s got a chance, but more of a 10/1 chance. Waiting for her to run a trail.
7/1 Fame And Glory – Has been my Arc horse since Epsom, and I’m not changing my view now. Always shown ability,and copes with any ground, although he does like cut, which he’ll get here. I know he’s more of a stayer than anything, but he’s still got class and may well be rested for the race.
12/1 Conduit – Massive contender now. He has proved speed and stamina, (Shown by his win in the Gordon Stakes, St Ledger and BC Turf) and his 2 runs this season have been respectable in their own right, taking into account he’ll need 12f or more. He has the turn of foot required, and there’s still more to come.
Vision D’Etat – Solid performer who has a lot of stayping power and speed, and picked up his 3rd Group 1 Victory in the Prince Of Wale’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. No reasons to see him doing badly here, but winning might be beyond him.
16/1 Beheshtam, Cutlass Bay
Behestham looks like a real Arc contenders, coming from connection that know how to win this race and already they seem to be confident. He’s definitely one for the GP – De Paris in my book, and is a lively contender.Cutlass Bay could still be anything, but his form doesn’t exactly look strong at this level.
20/1 Casual Conquest, Fuisse, Tartan Bearer
Fuisse ran well in the French Derby, but Bestham will improve for the step up in trip IMO.Casual Conquest’s form is strong enough, but i think there are about 6-8 top notchers who are better than him.
Tartan Bearer, on the face of all his form doesn’t look good enough to win an Arc, but could run well at big odds.25/1 Adlerflug, Aizavoski, Ask, Cima de Triomphe, Gan Amhras, Masterofthehorse, Rip Van Winkle, Soldier Of Fortune, Youmzain
Youmzain makes most appeal of those.Just tell me when and where and I’ll be there
I would disagree, with Rip van Winkle the most predictable retiree. Coolmore don’t yet have a son of Galileo on their books, and with today’s performance likely to make a win at Group 1 level a formality for RvW (presuming he avoids The Monster), they’ll be keen to retire him at season’s end.
Yeah I recognise that but why would anybody possibly want Rip Van Winkle (unplaced in 3 Group 1s before finally being placed, let alone winning one) when New Approach is the superior racehorse (based on the current evidence).
Ballydoyle have quite a fair few problems this year, albeit good problems.
Obviously their main 3yo now for this year is Fame And Glory and they want to win the Arc with him. They’ve mentioned the ICS but will they want to take on Sea The Stars again with him, especially over the sharper trip? With him being by Montjeu, it’s going to be mighty hard for him to take on Sea The Stars over the trip and a loss would mean that he loses a fair bit of value at stud, especially when they have Dylan Thomas, High Chaparral and Galileo at stud, all of which (thereabouts) won the Derby and the ICS.
The obvious route for him would be Niel – Arc, maybe even the Breeders’ Cup Turf afterwards. This would make financial sense, since no horse has won both in the same calendar year, but then again, why would breeders want the genuine 12f Fame And Glory when all of their other core middle-distance sires (thereabouts) won Group 1s over 10f?
So the problem is that Mastercraftsman is too slow for a mile at Goodwood and Longchamp and it’s likely he’ll be beaten in the QE2 as well, despite the track suiting. So they need to run him over 10f in a Group 1 where he won’t clash with Rip or Fame.
It’s extremely complicated but I think they’ll do the following;
Fame And Glory: Juddmonte (extra 88 yards will stand him in good stead) – Arc (- BC Turf?)
Rip Van Winkle: Sussex – Irish Champion – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Mastercraftsman: Jacques le Marois – QE2 – Champion Stakes
Yeah I recognise that but why would anybody possibly want Rip Van Winkle (unplaced in 3 Group 1s before finally being placed, let alone winning one) when New Approach is the superior racehorse (based on the current evidence).
————————————————————————————————-Agreeed with there.
So the problem is that Mastercraftsman is too slow for a mile at Goodwood and Longchamp and it’s likely he’ll be beaten in the QE2 as well, despite the track suiting. So they need to run him over 10f in a Group 1 where he won’t clash with Rip or Fame.
————————————————————————————————————Nope. Many people (yourself included if I’m not mistaken) said he was lay of the century at Ascot in the St Jame’s Palace Stakes at the Royal Meeting, where he went to the front 2 out and just kept on going. Soft ground would make him near unbeatable IMHO, and only Ghannati can beat him over 1m I’d think. If he went to the Sussex Stakes, (with a fast pacemaker in there) he’d win IMO. France, with just a bit of cut in the Ground, looks perfect for him. He does need 10f though.
You: Fame And Glory: Juddmonte (extra 88 yards will stand him in good stead) – Arc (- BC Turf?)
Me: Prix Niel (Or GP De – Paris) – Arc – BC Turf or end season.
He might find the BC Turf too quick for him.
You: Rip Van Winkle: Sussex – Irish Champion – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Me: Rip Van Winkle: Juddmonte – Irish Champion – BC Classic
Only one disagreement there, and this is that 1m is too short for him, leave that to MCM.
You: Mastercraftsman: Jacques le Marois – QE2 – Champion Stakes
Me: Sussex – QE2 – BC MIle
Give him a crazy pace (Pacemakers) and he’ll be fine over 1m.
