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Great Voltigeur 2009

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  • #12377
    Our Vic
    Member
    • Total Posts 99

    2.50 York
    Ladbrokes Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
    Winner £82,964
    2 pts win Alwarry , 1 pt e/w Mastery

    Father Time: Been progressing nicely this season, although he hasn’t helped himself by pulling very hard on all but one of his races this season, when winning the King Edward impressively last time out at Royal Ascot; Big player here but that race wasn’t a brilliant renewal.

    Mastery: Brought by Goldophin after fast finishing 4th in Kentucky Derby Trial, and put up immediate career best to land Italian Derby on his 1st start for the team; Ran very creditably when upped in trip to 2 miles in Queen Vase at Royal Ascot, finishing 3rd beaten only 4 ½ lengths after running out of stamina in the straight under a 5lbs penalty; Was 3rd in Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris last time out and that form makes him a major player with stable in form.

    Above Average: Seemed like something back to his best when 3rd in Bahrain last time out, and would be a player in this on his Group 3 win in the Sandown Classic trial; However needs more on his toughest test yet.

    Alwarry: Had one win form 2 starts at 2, when beating the well regarded Cloudy Start second time out; Needed the run when 4th in Lingfield Derby Trial and improved for that to take drop in Class at Goodwood in his Stride; Was a close up 2nd behind Doctor Freemantle before running well above what was expected of him when 4th in the King George last time out, coming behind 2 Group 1 winners in Conduit and Ask; Big chance here on all known form.

    Changingoftheguard: Holds one piece of form with Harbinger form their meeting at the Chester May Festival, coming out a 3 length 2nd; Has since gone on to be below par in heavy ground at the Curragh after that, but has gone on and progressed, winning the Ulster Derby in nice style last time out; If still improving, good enough to take a hand in this, but hard task on and more likely to go for Ebor, in which he would have a leading chance.

    Harbiger: Vindicated Sir Michael Stoute’s Decision to miss the Derby and Royal Ascot with him when running out an impressive winner of the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; That only his 3rd run and he looks like he’s still improving, so he holds a favourite’s chance here, however this is his toughest test yet and he does have to step up.

    Jukebox Jury: Royal Lodge winner who ran a lot better than his position would suggest when 6th in the Eclipse, and proved that by taking good Group 3 at Haydock on Saturday, with the 2nd and 3rd having run well in Group 2/1 company; Although well on top at finish latest has never gone this far and although sired by Montjeu, his stamina is doubtful.

    Kite Wood: Looked set for big classic campaign when winning Autumn Stakes in good style at Ascot as a juvenile; Below par in Derby after having been brought by Godolphin, but right back to best when scoring well under fine front running ride in Bahrain Stakes; Likely to run well but that form needs improving on.

    Monitor Closely: Latest effort in Group 2 York Stakes was a good one and has been running consistently all season, however form is muddling as he seems to run just as well in high group company as he would have been ion listed races; Others better preferred and may be vulnerable to an improver.

    Rockhampton: Seemingly here as pacemaker for a Ballydoyle horse if Changingoftheguard turns up.

    VERDICT: A very strong renewal of this trace and one that’s likely to prove extremely informative for the St Ledger and other races in the near future. Harbinger is likely to take a lot of beating, and having only had 3 runs, it’ll take a good horse to overturn him. However, there are good horses in abundance and ALWARRY, an excellent 4th in the King George last time behind Conduit, Tartan Bearer and Ask last time hold big claims. MASTERY has run with credit and is well worth a good e/w interest here after running 3rd behind Calvaryman in the Grand Prix De Paris last time.

    #243759
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    They won’t see the way Harbinger went if SMS is correct in saying he’s a better horse than last time.

    Wouldn’t dream of betting against him and although Alwaary is a nice horse he was beaten more than 4 lengths and getting 12 lbs in the King George and QE. That’s along way when you consider how late it was Conduit got into top gear.

    I’m very suspicious of Father Times form in the King Edward Vii. He won it easily enough but the second looks moderate, the 2rd came of worse of the AOB team in the Derby and the 4th got sruffed by Kitewood the other day.

    It might not seem it just now but when Ryan Moore wins this in a canter 7/4 will seem a huge price.

    I’ve backed him already and if things go well I’ll most likely back him again……….this is one very good horse.

    Harbinger for me or did you guess already :lol:

    #243769
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    I’m quietly hoping Harbinger beats Alwaary and then goes for the Arc. I’d love to see him go for the Arc purely because I think he could easily be the best 3yo 12f horse given the crud we’ve seen so far.

    #243776
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Might go next year but I couldn’t see SMS running him this time round.

    Whether he runs in the St Leger or not remains to be seen but I assume he won’t as he has bags of speed and that may mean Donnie would be ruled out.

    There may be a chance of him dropping back to 1m2f even if he wins this as easily as I think he will.

    Knowing what SMS is like it wouldn’t surprise me if Harbinger keeps improving that he takes on Sea the Stars later in the year…….nothing to lose everything to gain.

    #243825
    Stacelita
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    Harbinger looks a tough nut to crack and is a likeable sort who can only get better wil take all the beating

    #243845
    An Capall
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    I’m quietly hoping Harbinger beats Alwaary and then goes for the Arc. I’d love to see him go for the Arc purely because I think he could easily be the best 3yo 12f horse given the crud we’ve seen so far.

    Sea The Stars
    Fame and Glory

    Crud? Explain please.

    #243853
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Well you can’t really call Sea The Stars a 12f horse given the way the Derby was run. IMO he still has it all to prove over the trip and many feel the same way.

    As for Fame And Glory…the form book says no.

    #243874
    Our Vic
    Member
    • Total Posts 99

    Well you can’t really call Sea The Stars a 12f horse given the way the Derby was run. IMO he still has it all to prove over the trip and many feel the same way.

    As for Fame And Glory…the form book says no.

    Hey Zarakva, glad to hear from you again but i have to disagree. He’s only done what’s been asked of him yet, and done it well. Yes we know the Irish Derby was’nt great (form been let down) but that was’nt the point IMHO. The point was that he went and won and he’s still improving,and should handle the Arc fine. The English Derby was a good field this year, and many might say that he would have won the Derby had the pace been stronger, which is a good sign considering that the race has worked out well. If it’s a dire year for the classic generation, that only helps him.

    As for STS, the Derby for him was more about his class IMO and I don’t really think that it takes away form him that the race tuned out into a sprint seeing as he’s won an Eclipse in near record time afterwards off a strong pace, and the form has worked out well. I think it speaks more about his versatility if you ask me, so.

    Concerning Harbinger, I don’t think he’s going to turn out to be the best 3 yr old we’ve seen over middle distances this year so far, unless he takes on a Group 1 contest. If he were to take this, that would mean he’d have to come under serious consideration for many major prizes later on, but he’s only won a Group 3 so far.

    #243876
    Our Vic
    Member
    • Total Posts 99

    They won’t see the way Harbinger went if SMS is correct in saying he’s a better horse than last time.

    Wouldn’t dream of betting against him and although Alwaary is a nice horse he was beaten more than 4 lengths and getting 12 lbs in the King George and QE. That’s along way when you consider how late it was Conduit got into top gear.

    I’m very suspicious of Father Times form in the King Edward Vii. He won it easily enough but the second looks moderate, the 2rd came of worse of the AOB team in the Derby and the 4th got sruffed by Kitewood the other day.

    It might not seem it just now but when Ryan Moore wins this in a canter 7/4 will seem a huge price.

    I’ve backed him already and if things go well I’ll most likely back him again……….this is one very good horse.

    Harbinger for me or did you guess already :lol:

    I dunno. Yes he’s improving all the time, but this is a tough renewal of the Great Voltiegur this year with at least 2 Group 2 winners in the field, and 2 horses dropping back down form Group 1 company, one against older horses. The Gordon Stakes on the other hand was all about Harbinger, and the was’nt much stregth in depth to that, and you can guarantee that if any of Mastery, Alwarry, Father Time or co had turned up, they would have taken all the beating.

    #243898
    Stacelita
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    I disagree whatever harbinger did at goodwood connections believed he’d come on greatly for the run and he won with a bit in hand. He’s got bags of speed and i’d be very suprised if anyone turns him over in this race.

    #243937
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    They won’t see the way Harbinger went if SMS is correct in saying he’s a better horse than last time.

    Wouldn’t dream of betting against him and although Alwaary is a nice horse he was beaten more than 4 lengths and getting 12 lbs in the King George and QE. That’s along way when you consider how late it was Conduit got into top gear.

    I’m very suspicious of Father Times form in the King Edward Vii. He won it easily enough but the second looks moderate, the 2rd came of worse of the AOB team in the Derby and the 4th got sruffed by Kitewood the other day.

    It might not seem it just now but when Ryan Moore wins this in a canter 7/4 will seem a huge price.

    I’ve backed him already and if things go well I’ll most likely back him again……….this is one very good horse.

    Harbinger for me or did you guess already :lol:

    I dunno. Yes he’s improving all the time, but this is a tough renewal of the Great Voltiegur this year with at least 2 Group 2 winners in the field, and 2 horses dropping back down form Group 1 company, one against older horses. The Gordon Stakes on the other hand was all about Harbinger, and the was’nt much stregth in depth to that, and you can guarantee that if any of Mastery, Alwarry, Father Time or co had turned up, they would have taken all the beating.

    My understanding is that SMS thinks he’s better than Conduit was at this stage. If those had run in his last race who knows but that was then and this is now. ….those mentioned wouldn’t blow wind u his backside so stop worrying and get the Kitchen Sink on……or if you don’t need an extra sink put the wife on. :) always good to have a spare one of those :lol:

    #244205
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    I’m in the Harbinger camp. This horse dosen’t look one dimentional to me. I don’t care about the pace or time of his last race. I think he could easily go with a faster pace and still have plenty left in the tank to take his move. 15/8 wasn’t too shabby so here’s hoping.

    #244238
    deltaman
    Member
    • Total Posts 190

    Ladbrokes race so you can forget the fav. :twisted:

    #244245
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Boring, I know, but Harbinger for me. :?

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #244374
    tenbob
    Member
    • Total Posts 156

    my points system

    141 mastery
    139 harbinger
    137 father time
    135 alwaary
    133 jukebox jury
    123 monitor closely
    118 above average
    will back mastery

    #244376
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29178

    Well, I’ll be different then.

    I have both Harbinger and Alwaary having the same chance 32% 85/40. So as Alwaary is available at just short of 5/2 he is a value bet.
    However, I make Jukebox Jury a true 18% 9/2 chance, so 7/1 bog Paddys is the main bet.

    Not sure harbinger could have been 4th in the King George (at this stage). Though would not be surprised to see Stoute’s charge improve in to a Group 1 animal in time. Harbinger is improving but so are Alwaary, Jukebox Jury and Father Time. The latter did nowt wrong last time but has shaped as if a bit of a thinker in the past. Jukebox improved last time to beat Campanologist, under pressure some way out. May be able to find more improvement at this trip.

    Value Is Everything
    #244382
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    No race is a foregone conclusion like I made out in an earlier post but Harbiger does look a horse of the future.

    Alwaary caught a lot of people’s attention in the King George including my own but looking again I got the impression he’s a tad one paced.

    He was being niggled to make a move before the home trun and found a good possie just behind Conduit. He was following him through and looking to be travelling fairly well but wen Ryan Moore really got after Conduit he put a couple of lengths between them instantly and then at the furlong marker increased that to a good 3 lengths. Conduit had actyually increased that distance by the line but with the other two slowing perhaps Alwaary was a little flattered.

    However this is not the KG it’s a Group 2 so you would expect Alwaary to go close. However one thing Harbinger has that he doesn’t is an excellent turn of foot.

    Ryan made a very brave move when he won the Gordon Stakes taking it up as early as he did but when he said go he left those beside him for dead and ran on really well.

    Pace will be all omportant here and it’s all down to whether Harbinger can find as much off a fast pace as he did in his last race. It is 2 furlongs longer so it coudld be they wont go much faster than they did in the Gordon. I can’t see the trip being a problem as he seems to travel with ease and if he can produce the same turn of foot then I can’t see anything to touch him.

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