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a sacrificial lamb? Oh come on "H" Aiden doesn’t send horses with no hope for a 600K race.
He could have sent Rip Van Winkle here but obviously thinks Mastercraftsman has more chance of lowering Sea the Stars colours at this trip.
He only beat Delegator by a short distance but he looked like he had loads left in the tank and had it been further I have no doubt he would have pulled away from him again. He’s won on heavy ground at a mile which again points to him getting this trip without any trouble.
I can’t see this race being anything more than a real ding dong battle and I know Mastercraftsman won’t quit……….I wouldn’t be as sure about Sea the Stars who for the first time in his life will be put under real pressure.
To be honest I’ve no time for Oxx he’s already shaking in his boots talking about it might rain ffs. The forecast is for sunshine with possible light drizzle which wouldn’t affect York in the slightest……..I reckon he’s hired red indians to do a rain dance in the hope he has an excuse not to go
Oxx is without doubt the most open and honest of the Irish flat trainers Fist. He’s not one for bullsh1te and if he has concerns about Sea The Stars on anything softer than good ground then I’d have no reasons to doubt that those concerns are genuine.
Then he’s been a bit of a fool has he not?. He had the King George at his mercy according to his fans and misses the race to wait for York and then there’s no race for him until the Irish Champion Stakes which has been run 4 times in the last 5 years on good to soft or worse. Not what I would call a smart move.
Winning the King George would have done wonders for the horse’s reputation and put paid to any doubt that the horse actually stays 1m4f. The Derby hardly proved he does at te pace that was run at.
SMS for example ran Conduit in the Eclipse for one reason. If he had won his shed value would have gone through the roof having won at a range of distances in top company.
You can’t blame Oxx for being worried. There are millions at stake here.
He knows if Rip Van Winkle and Fame and Glory don’t go on to bigger and better things breeders will start questioning his worth like they did with Nashwan.
The bubble could burst at York and he’ll be worried enough without the possibilty of rain. If he comes through the York race or doesn’t run his best bet may be to go for the Arc….if he won it he could go down as one of the truly greats but that is one big gamble if it turns out he gets stuffed.
He must be sorely tempted to tuck him away and hope AOB can work his magic and boost the horses Derby and Eclispe win.
The King George was never a runner for the horse. It’s at an awful time of year if you’re planning an autumn campaign for your horse. You simply have to let your horse down for a week or two during the summer to freshen him up a bit. If you run him every three or four weeks, which is what would have happened had he run in the KG, he’d be gone well over the top by the Autumn. The only horse I can recall in recent years who took in the King George and who raced consistently over the Summer was Dylan Thomas as a 4yo. Duke Of Marmalade tried it last year but he was well gone by the autumn. You simply have to give your horse some down time during the summer if your planning for Irish Champion Stakes / Arc / Breeders Cup etc.
I don’t know where you get this theory that he’s running scared of the Ballydoyle horses and he’s fearful of damaging his potential as a stallion. Even if Fame And Glory was to beat him at Longchamp or Rip Van Winkle was to beat him in America, I very much doubt it would put any breeders off sending their mares to be covered by him. He’s a Guineas winner over a mile and a Derby winner over a mile and a half. He’s a breeder’s dream being out of the great Urban Sea. People will look at his record and see the words Guineas and Derby. There won’t be many breeders taking into account the pace at which the race at Epsom was ran.
Then he’s been a bit of a fool has he not?. He had the King George at his mercy according to his fans and misses the race to wait for York and then there’s no race for him until the Irish Champion Stakes which has been run 4 times in the last 5 years on good to soft or worse. Not what I would call a smart move.
You probably have as good a chance of getting decent ground at Leopardstown on Sept 5 as you have anywhere else in Ireland or the UK. The going at Leopardstown tonight is Good and that would be fine for STS.
Champion Stakes Since 1999:
1999 Daylami –
Yielding to soft
2000 Giants Causeway –
Good
2001 Fantastic Light –
Good
2002 Grandera –
Good to firm
2003 High Chaparral –
Good to firm (good in straight)
2004 Azamour –
Good to firm
2005 Oratorio –
Good to yielding
2006 Dylan Thomas –
Good to firm
2007 Dylan Thomas –
Good to firm
2008 New Approach –
Yielding, yielding to soft in place
In that ten year period there have only been at most, three renewals where the ground would have been unsuitable for STS – 1999, 2008 and possibly 2005.
3.25 York
These are my thoughts on the race, personally I’ll just be supporting MCM and STS, and if STS wins, all the better for racing.Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
1m2f
Casual Conquest: Lightly-raced colt who won last season’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and went on to finish third behind New Approach in the Derby at Epsom and second to Frozen Fire in the Irish Derby; Got his 1st Group 1 in heavy ground in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, which suited him much better than when having been beaten by the Hardwicke winner Bronze Cannon in the Jockey Club Stakes on his seasonal debut; Was bitterly disappointing last time, even allowing for a penalty and suspicion is now that he needs cu in the Ground.Doctor Freemantle: High-class performer over this trip last year when fourth in the Derby after winning the Chester Vase, before then coming a good 4th in the GP De Paris, ending season on a low note due to inability to stay in St Ledger, fading into 8th; Just got away with drop back to 1m2f when making successful return at Chester last month (his second win there) and looked sure to make bold bid back over optimum trip at Royal Ascot; However drifted and then disappointed that day, before bouncing right back to something like his best when winning Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the July Meeting last time; Form of that race working out well since, with Schiparelli winning Goodwood Cup and Alwarry coming 4th in the King George, and Drumfire winning a Glorious Goodwood, along with the last 2 running 2-3 in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes; Suspicion that 1m2f will be too short for him today.
Forgotten Voice: Previously unbeaten horse who had impressed in his 3 wins and was sent off the handicap “good thing” at Royal Ascot in the Hunt Cup; Confirmed his promise with an impressive win; Was sent off a warm order for conditions contest 2 starts ago which he should have won, even allowing or the soft ground that night; Returned to something like his best when 4th in Sussex Stakes over 1m at Glorious Goodwood last time out, when 4th behind Rip Van Winkle; Doubtless that was a good effort, but more needed here and better waited with until dropped in class.
Georgebernardshaw: Been performing well in listed races recently but not exactly the most genuine horse we’ll ever meet and in as pacemaker here.
Mastercraftsman: Unbeaten in four races at The Curragh last season, including an impressive display when trouncing the Coventry Stakes winner Art Connoisseur on good to firm ground in the Phoenix Stakes, and claimed title of Champion 2 yr old with a Gutsy success in the National Stakes in deep ground at the Curragh, beating Shaweel and Arzan; Possible that victory took energy out of him, leaving him over the top when connections went once too much to the wishing well when disappointing fourth behind Naaqoos in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on final start last season; Only met with Sea The Stars once, when needing the run in the 2,000 Guineas; Came back with a bang with a masterful display in Irish Guineas, taking the lead from about 2 out and grinding all rivals into submission for a 4 and a half length victory, before putting doubts about faster ground to bed when getting up in last ½ furlong for a neck victory in St James’s Place Stakes, notching up his 4th Group 1 in the process; No doubt that this 10f trip will help a lot, and likely strong pace to play to his strengths.
Sea The Stars: Marked himself down as leading star of classics generation with remarkable Group 1 hat tick finished in great style and near course record time when beating Sussex Stakes winner Rip Van Winkle and King George winner Conduit last time out in the Eclipse, emulating Nashwan who pulled off the same hat trick which included wins in the 2,000 Guineas and Derby; His astonishing list of defeated rivals have got 18 wins between them (6 Group 1 wins), including, the Irish Derby, Sussex Stakes, King George Stakes, Betfair Cup, Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James’s Palace (1-2 in that event), Prix Jean Prat, Jersey Stakes, Prix Eugene Adam and Rose Of Lancaster Stakes; Over 10f here, is going to be hard to beat.Set Sail: Funny story about this horse, who cost Seamus Heffernan 300 Euros when hanging in a conditions contest last time; Pacemaker for Mastercrafstman today.
Tartan Bearer: Never won a Group 1, although he has come mightily close and arguably would have taken all the beating in races like the Coronation Cup; Dante winner and 2nd and 3rd in the Derby and Irish Derby in what was a progressive classic season; One gets the feeling he would have gone a lot close to winning if he hadn’t been so badly interfered with at the Curragh; Returned with a good win in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown, only just getting up over 10f that day; Subsequently sent off a warm order for the Prince Of Wale’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran a good race to finish 2nd to Ganay & Prix Du Jockey Club winner Vison D’Etat in the circumstances; Stepped back up to 12f to finish 2nd in King George, a good effort and not to be discounted with the extra half furlong (Only won twice at 10 furlongs) in his favour.
Verdict: This trip is likely to prove short for Casual Conquest, and he wants ground faster than this too. Doctor Freemantle’s latest victory was as good as we’ve seen form him, but this is a very though task. Forgotten Voice could well impprove for the step up, but even his Sussex 4th isn’t really good enough here. With Set Sail and Georgebernardshaw as pacemakers, Matsercraftsman could be primed to go very close here, especially stepping up to 10f for the 1st time. There is no real obvious alternative from the 4 in a row seeking SEA THE STARS, and if he won, it would be good for racing. The obvious e/w selection is Tartan Bearer, who at 11/2 or 7/1 with a strong pace and 10 ½ furlongs should run well.
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Then he’s been a bit of a fool has he not?. He had the King George at his mercy according to his fans and misses the race to wait for York and then there’s no race for him until the Irish Champion Stakes which has been run 4 times in the last 5 years on good to soft or worse. Not what I would call a smart move.
You probably have as good a chance of getting decent ground at Leopardstown on Sept 5 as you have anywhere else in Ireland or the UK. The going at Leopardstown tonight is Good and that would be fine for STS.
Champion Stakes Since 1999:
1999 Daylami –
Yielding to soft
2000 Giants Causeway –
Good
2001 Fantastic Light –
Good
2002 Grandera –
Good to firm
2003 High Chaparral –
Good to firm (good in straight)
2004 Azamour –
Good to firm
2005 Oratorio –
Good to yielding
2006 Dylan Thomas –
Good to firm
2007 Dylan Thomas –
Good to firm
2008 New Approach –
Yielding, yielding to soft in place
In that ten year period there have only been at most, three renewals where the ground would have been unsuitable for STS – 1999, 2008 and possibly 2005.
My bad mate I thought he was going for Champion Stakes at Newmarket in October
Looks like Casual Conquest won’t be turning up, and Doc Freemantle definetely won’t be there. If STS dosen’t run then you ain’t left with much of a race.
5 declared, STS, 3 of O’Briens and Stoutes Tartan Bearer. I’ve wasted my money unless the ground dosen’t suit STS because he wil win and it won’t be much of a problem for him at all.
Fist, i noticed you on a couple other sites saying MCM will beat STS. You don’t half get around.
Oh look MCM has beaten STS. OMG what’s this…oh it’s a pig flying past my window.
Oh look MCM has beaten STS. OMG what’s this…oh it’s a pig flying past my window.
Watch out Graeme,there will be another one Tuesday evening!!
TAPK, are you in the MCM camp aswell ?
Add another MCM man here. Just such a nice horse to look at, very gusty and will love 10f on fast ground.
Well if no-one else is going to I’ll throw my cap into the Tartan Bearer camp. I don’t like the 3yos, the longer straight at York is going to play to Tartan Bearer’s strengths since he’ll finally be able to get up a bit of speed and the extended 10f trip might play to his advantage.
I backed Tartan Bearer in the possibility that STS might not run. There’s Old Vic is the MCM camp aswell. Oh they’re getting bigger in numbers. Can’t help but feel they will be dissapointed, but fair play anyway.
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He’s under my wing at the moment and does what I tell him to do.
Oh look anothher pig just flew past my window
To be honest I thought Mastercraftsman was a pretty ordinary Group horse last season but there wasn’t really anything to judge him by.
You have 2 horses going here on Tuesday. 1. Sea the Stars who never wins his races by more than a couple of lengths. He just doesn’t have that extra punch we saw with Goldy in France today. 2. You have a horse who doesn’t want to win his races by more than a nose if he can get away with it. He just loves to look at horses and say "You thought you had me there bozo"
The problem is you don’t talk horse Graeme but Gord and I do
Seriously though we have two horses that have this will be close stamped all over them. No Doubt Sea the Stars has more toe but if he can be forced to play his hand early I think Mastercraftsman will be too strong for him and he’ll fold.
What I reckon is, AOB will throw caution to the wind and make sure this race is run at brakeneck pace. He has to bank on Mastercraftsman staying every yard of this and try and eliminate Sea the Stars acceleration advantage. If the pace is strong enough Mastercraftsman could turn the screw and have them at it 2 1/2 furlongs out. I don’t care how good Sea the Stars is, if the race is run like that he won’t get past him. Of course what could happen is MC fails to get the trip and stops.
If it’s a normal pace if I was Mick Kinane I wouldn’t do what I did in the Eclipse and go for home 2 out. I’d be hanging back until 1/2 furlong from home.
Mastercraftsman will fight with anything that’s there and Tartan Bearer will no doubt come with his customery run. I’d let them get on with it and sit an sit until I really had to go giving MC no chance of getting back at me.
There are only 3 horses with a realistic chance so tactics will be everything.
They sent out a pacemaker the last time against STS and it didn’t work. He will sit nicely in 4th and just tag along until business commences.
STS will just have to sit in there contently whatever the pace. If it’s slow he will range up on them and make his move whenever Kinane feels necesarry.
If it’s a fast pace(which it will be) then STS will just have too much power for MCM in the final couple of furlongs. STS will take it from 1.5 out and say to MCM "erm do i look like Delegator mate ?". Then at this point he will glance over and say "don’t forget to have a nice day".
Basically, it dosen’t matter what the pace is. STS is pace adaptable and a fast run will suit him just fine aswell. I really don’t want to complicate things. Over any pace STS will have too much for MCM. I wouldn’t even be suprised in Tartan Bearer was a greater danger.
I backed Tartan Bearer in the possibility that STS might not run. There’s Old Vic is the MCM camp aswell. Oh they’re getting bigger in numbers. Can’t help but feel they will be dissapointed, but fair play anyway.
Racing’s all about opinions, and sometimes there are horses, that you just can’t get way from.TAPK, are you in the MCM camp aswell ?
I"m sure i mentioned him somewhere on this forum Graeme!
I honestly can’t see Mastercraftsman troubling Sea The Stars unless the heavens open. Mastercraftsman is an admirable tough sort but he doesn’t possess anywhere near the same level of class as the Oxx horse. Soft ground would bring them closer together but that looks unlikely at this stage and Sea The Stars would be pulled out if significant rain came anyway.
I don’t see how Sea The Stars can be beat on a sound surface over 1m2. It was said before the Eclipse that a fast run race might stretch him. They went a lightning pace there judging by the time and he still arrived turning in absolutely swinging on the bit. If anything, Mick probably hit the front sooner than he’d have wanted to.
A muddling tactical gallop can catch out the best of horses but I can’t see anything in this race that has a turn of foot to beat him off a slow pace.
Racing’s all about opinions, and sometimes there are horses, that you just can’t get way from.
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