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I’ve got to agree with Gord, despite an exceptional performance today I cannot get on board with UDS at anything like evens. His highly pronounced soft ground action bothers me for Cheltenham as does his choke out running style, he sets off from any stride approaching a fence and pulls the whole way round. I simply don’t believe he is good enough to ping every fence and get home. Not at evens anyway.
Painttheclouds has had an injury stricken career, does anyone happen to know his wellbeing presently? I presume he should be out in the next month or so if well.
I’ll stay with
Sire De Grugy 2pts at today’s 9/2
.
I’m just happy he’s still that price, I make him 3/1 on my own book.
I thought exactly the same Steve. Still has his injury to overcome though.
I’d have to say that I’m not a fan of the all weather, nor am I a follower of the flat. I also have virtually zero interest in American racing but all that being said ZENYATTA’S career and final swan song will always stick in my memory as an incredible performance and spectacle.
THM, I’m not sure they open up the center of the course during the festival.
Tuesday is by far the best day, I attend it religiously and have done for 5-6 years I guess with a smattering of other days thrown in. There’s a lot of new development at the course already completed but what I would say is that you’ll not have enough time to go from a good viewpoint at the course, to the parade ring and back to the course again between races. It can be a real battle to enjoy the full facilities of the course during the festival and if you intend to get a drink between races too you are pretty much scuppered. I tend to bet mainly Antepost with top ups in the morning of the race to remove the necessity of queuing at a bookmaker for appalling odds and EW terms, then pick two or so races each day to watch from the centaur as it gives a welcome break from the crowds during a race for WC, beer and breathing etc.
Club is a hinderance, stick with Tatts and put a few extra quid on Holywell instead
Silviniaco conti is the only horse from last years protagonists that is entitled to consideration for this years renewal imo but at 3/1 is no kind of price given his Cheltenham form. The rest could be covered with a blanket at the finish so I’m happy to look at an emerging talent for this years winner.
Road to riches has put his best foot forward in Ireland but I’m not convinced that those heavy ground challenges are entirely relevant here. Festival form is key when looking for an improver and for that reason HOLYWELL still rates the main danger at a very generous 14/1 EW. I’m still very interested in shutthefrontdoor but he missed the Lexus and it’s too big a leap of faith without that run. Boston Bob is still a player at 20/1 but Holywell boasts a stronger profile at 2/3 the price.I’d expect to see blinkers on conti for the showpiece in March, as those cheek pieces may not continue to be as effective and he clearly needs focussing when asked for his fullest effort.
I ramble. HOLYWELL 14/1 EW the selection.
Well done VTC always enjoy this! And thanks for your very generous offer of a prize. Should I be lucky enough to win I’ll take it as a betting slip on your selection of the grand national winner if you’d be so kind, win only!
Champion hurdle? Only one bet makes sense to me at this point. 2 points win Jezki 6/1 generally. Funny things happen in this race, but I reckon only 5 may turn up yet!
Best of luck with UDS Chelt but 5/2 is not for me. The arkle is not a race you can win from the front unless he’s exceptional. UDS has fallen once, completed once and only run on soft or worse ground beating inferior horses. He’s also never raced at Cheltenham or travelled to Britain. He may go on to win but with UDS taking such a chunk out of the market with that many negatives it strikes me as perfectly formed to find one against the fav EW. I hope Gilgamboa goes this route but Vibrato Valtat may just be the answer to a forced pace.
I find Paul Nicholls a trifle over enthusiastic at times. I’ve been on a tour of his stable when the great Kauto, Denman, Big Bucks and a poorly Masterminded were in residence and since those super stars have moved on he’s had a procession of new ‘stars’ occupy their boxes opposite the office. If memory serves; mon parrain and Michael le Bon have been ‘gold cup’ horses of the future and although the champion trainer frequently surprises me with his ability to over achieve with many of his horses I can’t help but feel that he needs to believe the next Kauto is already housed at Ditcheat.
On a separate note, didn’t Paul state in interview that the paddy power was ‘caid du berlais gold cup’? Certainly tempers my enthusiasm for him to be spot on for the Casper. Paul has always been one to target a race for a horse and have them razor sharp on the day, at the expense of later targets.
From a value perspective at this stage 25/1 seems about right to me. JS has never won over 3m to my memory and doesn’t show the same adeptness over flatter tracks as he does at Cheltenham. He’s also stepping out of handicap class and although not forlorn, those three question marks put him firmly on the back foot against some of the market principles for me.
I’d be more interested to see him compete in another handicap over 3m at Cheltenham rather than graded at Kempton to see if there is the required improvement available. Perhaps a conditions race like the argento? Jonjo has plenty of horses for the gold cup though and at his age I’d say JS stays Ryanair this season VFC. Maybe next year?Could anyone local inform us as to the rain received overnight around Haydock please? Listed as soft, I wonder if that may not tell the whole story after a day’s racing and overnight rain.
Hello Gord. With news that Sire De Grudgy is missing the rest of 2014 and the obvious doubt surrounding Sprinter Sacre who do you fancy for the champion chase? Surely there’s value in the market right now to take them on but there’s previous little that will target the race. I wonder if Simonsig could be the one to take sprinters place should he return below par. Balder succes doesn’t look to like cheltenham and I think Uxizandre is set for longer trips provided balder stays sound. What’s your view?
On a seperate note, shutthefrontdoor looks value for the lexus at 7’s.
