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There is no reason not to back CB for this years national. That being said, i havent. Go figure. I really like to look for value prices in this race based on trends and previous runs – i have Butlers at a shorter price so nothing else within 30’s interests me at this stage. I have learned that you need to stop at some point or your antepost portfolio for this race becomes a no win lottery ticket. Following your heads up on state of play i will have a better look today.
Currently on triple figure prices for parsons, darkness and southern vic, and some excellent 60-95 value on mon mome, notre pere and garde champetre. I really like Garde this year he should appear in the foxhunters at cheltenham.Just to ensure i dont appear like some others have on this forum i want to underline that my antepost money on slim pickings and bewleys berry seems to be lost……… lol
Any news on Parsons by the way? Always fancied this horse but will it start?
Maybe that came accross belligerently it should not have. I retract any implied frustration in my last post but leave the sentiment to linger.
OK fella why not. I just put a min stake on Orlando on betfair at 15.5. Lets see how it pans out. Im in your hands!
Im sorry i dont mean to labour a point but would you outline the doubts about triple King George winner Kauto star again for me? Or are they the same doubts that he always has about him while quietly becoming one of the most prolific winners of our generation…
Well I certainly use the stats as a yardstick in this race too gerald, and as it is usually run within a week of my birthday it’s the highlight of my punting celebrations (if rarely success…) and your post has cheered me up no end considering my selections must have a 57% chance of winning!….
Andrewhill you are not totally alone but I am a little concerned that denman may not start the GC. If he does I believe that with the combination of the cheltenham track and a sharper level of fitness he should be assured of a place so the 5/1 about him now offers the suggestion that a better bet could be denman to place at 6/5 rather than kauto to win at a similar price.
That being said if denman doesn’t come on at home for the race he may see the rest of this season from his box. At this stage it is kauto for me with considerable confidence but there is no value in his price. This GC may be better watched while spending my festival winnings over the bar
Gerald you should try that same formula from the perspective of feb 2008, 2007 and 2006 to see if the information available at that time threw up the winner to each of the respective nationals. These stat calculations have a tendancy to be retrospective in bias.
How quick the racing fraternity is to write off it’s greatest stars with comments such as demanding his retirement. We all knew there was a good likelyhood that the tank wouldn’t be right so this overreaction seems a little knee-jerk to me. I have seen kauto retired at least twice by the public too…..
For whatever reason every other horse out there struggled in this race except MdB who seemed to find everything aligned for him and he ran superbly. Denmans performance was heavily below par but for me that was to be expected, and I believe a combination of factors such as the track and it’s direction possibly even the horses enthusiasm combined to compound the poor appearance of his run.That being said it still casts a large enough shadow to rule him out of the GC betting for me. I can’t have the suggestion that this years king George was a below par renewal and it’s result sees kauto going to the GC straighter than last year with his recent form underlined. When choosing who to back in a race like this years GC I start by looking for the negatives in the main protaganists and I don’t see any reason to look beyond kauto.
For the record I would have been on denman but for today race and I still envisage him being a force to be reckoned with again in the future, but probably not this season.
As discussed elsewhere on this forum it’s rarely the surface that dominates the decision making process in snow cancelled race meets, it’s also the safety of the journeying horses and punters. If it snows and settles between Friday afternoon and Saturday am I can’t see any way the meet goes ahead sadly.
Gerald, for a minute i thought your inside knowledge of Simons form astounded even his trainer…..
Fantastic info thanks guys ESP gerald. As expected I see no placed horses have fallen twice, it helps when trimming the field at this stage. Do you expect newbury to race gerald? I’m worries we are going to lose that piece of the puzzle due to weather.
Ok chaps, i know some of you are tremendous with statistics. I cannot find anywhere with this information to hand, perhaps one of you is more resourceful. I am trying to find out what percentge of horses that FALL in the national then go on to subsequantly place in the event.
Any help would be great thanks.
All fair points Ginger and I dispute none of them. I never revealed my own opinion of Fist but i wouldnt hesitate in saying he added a regular flavour to the mix…
If you look back over the thread i think you will find that more objections have been raised to its existance than support right from the off – so i dont think his resignation is all that has provoked objection. Also, while looking through the previous threads i didnt notice many that were aimed at an individual poster in an attempt to undermine him. Still, this is my opinion and not my argument so I would prefer to slope back into the ‘reader’ section of the forum for now……Many thx for the welcome though. Hopefully this thread will disappear into oblivion sooner rather than later.
I have been enjoying this forum for well over a year now and i have to say that Carvills thread last season was excellent. The way he addressed each race antepost based on his opinion of value really appealed to my way of punting and needless to say his proven profit was a massive achievement. That being said, this thread has smacked more than a bit of bullying. In the past i have read Fist’s comments and the retalliation from other forumites – and there is no doubt that he has prevoked reactions due to the content, or nature of his posts. From Carv’s position i understand his motivation in starting and continuing this thread but as a bystander I feel compelled to condemn the reacton and fuelling of its continuation. By singling out ANY regular contributer to the forum in this way you are insinuating that his opinion is judged solely on the merits of his success: In which case it makes a mockery of perpetuating a forum where opinions are freely encouraged and debated. Any regular reader of this forum will make his/her own opinions as to the merits of each posters judgement as the content is discussed in the thread. Lets face it, you wouldnt read or post in this forum if you had all the answers so with our own ignorance in mind, i suggest we keep to debating horse racing issues, not creating threads ridiculing those debating.
Theres lots to talk about and enjoy chaps. Fists no doubt feels mobbed by the direction this thread has taken and I for one would feel that without his input TRF has become a little more about the forumites than the topic.
