- This topic has 156 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
i agree york and i know peeple said that bout kato but apparently denman not firin on all cylinders at home either so what nxt???????????????
Denman out to 11/2 on Betfair, with some 6/1 taken.
Worrying.
Mark
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Is anyone reminded of Tamarinbleu’s destruction of Twist Magic at Ascot last season, following the latter’s impressive victory in the Tingle Creek?
A similar pattern is now emerging and, having thought about the race a little more, I’ll lay MDB all day at the current 8s and 10s.
I’m not sure of the logic of that – Twist Magic doesn’t stay 2 miles.On the other hand, 8/1 or so is a bit short, when there are possible contenders on good or gd to sft ground such as Barbers Shop, Star De Mohaison or Albertas Run.
Interesting that McCoy is quoted as saying "I wasn’t disappointed by Albertas Run [today]"
- Total Posts 17716
There’s no logic implied, Gerald, I was simply commenting that a Pipe horse was again trained to the second to beat a Nicholls favourite, with a front-running ride, and was subsequently shortened far too much for the Festival.
- Total Posts 17716
A poor performance today, and you’d have thought that the old Denman would have been ridden more aggressively, but possibly Ruby realised he wasn’t able quite early in the race. Can’t believe he wasn’t close to full fitness today: he had the same racecourse gallop he had prior to the Hennessy, when PN was much less bullish about his readiness. He just wasn’t the same horse, and might never be again, on this showing.
Albertas Run, for all he may not have liked the ground, once again underlines the serious question mark against the King George form, and I remain totally unconvinced that Kauto Star is a worthy Gold Cup favourite on the evidence of 1 race in his last 5.
Madison Du Berlais has undoubtedly improved for cheekpieces, much as Exotic Dancer did for his, but I’d doubt it’s as much as the 13lb RPR has him at between the Hennessy and now, truth is, he hasn’t beaten a lot and impressive though it was, you’d hardly think that a horse seriously viewed as a potential Gold Cup winner would have been ridden as forcefully as he was today.
Just my opinion, but the Gold Cup looks like being far from the vintage renewal one expected, and is now completely up in the air as to who’s the prime candidate.:lol: As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat?
I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
As of now!
Just thank God MdB ran yesterday, otherwise Denman wins cosily and he’s 5/4 for the GC.
As for the GC picture, my view is quite similar to reets’. The KG form has always looked dodgy to me compared with the previous 2 renewals, and with a steady gallop far less likely (Denman or not) than in 2007, I think Kauto Star could be up against it at Cheltenham this year, certainly no backing proposition at 5/4. I wouldn’t go as far to say it’ll be a poor renewal though, as it’ll almost certainly take a 170-plus performance to win it unlike some recent GCs. I got the 16s available with Hills yesterday about Exotic Dancer- perhaps a bit "heart over head", but I think unless the ground is really soft the race will go to suit him and his best form would go very close this year IMO.
How quick the racing fraternity is to write off it’s greatest stars with comments such as demanding his retirement. We all knew there was a good likelyhood that the tank wouldn’t be right so this overreaction seems a little knee-jerk to me. I have seen kauto retired at least twice by the public too…..
For whatever reason every other horse out there struggled in this race except MdB who seemed to find everything aligned for him and he ran superbly. Denmans performance was heavily below par but for me that was to be expected, and I believe a combination of factors such as the track and it’s direction possibly even the horses enthusiasm combined to compound the poor appearance of his run.That being said it still casts a large enough shadow to rule him out of the GC betting for me. I can’t have the suggestion that this years king George was a below par renewal and it’s result sees kauto going to the GC straighter than last year with his recent form underlined. When choosing who to back in a race like this years GC I start by looking for the negatives in the main protaganists and I don’t see any reason to look beyond kauto.
For the record I would have been on denman but for today race and I still envisage him being a force to be reckoned with again in the future, but probably not this season.
Racing Post have given Madison 176.
Well, if the OH takes a similar view, that has well and truly buggered my National bet.
As for the GC picture … with a steady gallop far less likely (Denman or not) than in 2007
I presume you mean 2008 here Friggo.
I would think connections of Neptune Collonges would be more than happy to set the pace again this year. With doubts about both Denman and Kauto Star, there is no reason why
Nipper
can’t win the race from the front.
Im sorry i dont mean to labour a point but would you outline the doubts about triple King George winner Kauto star again for me? Or are they the same doubts that he always has about him while quietly becoming one of the most prolific winners of our generation…
I’m not sure of the logic of that – Twist Magic doesn’t stay 2 miles.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.