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As for the GC picture … with a steady gallop far less likely (Denman or not) than in 2007
I presume you mean 2008 here Friggo.
I would think connections of Neptune Collonges would be more than happy to set the pace again this year. With doubts about both Denman and Kauto Star, there is no reason why
Nipper
can’t win the race from the front.
Hi DB,
I did mean 2007, when the gallop was modest and the race turned into a test of speed that suited Kauto. As you’ve alluded to (I think), I’d thus have my doubts about him running up to form should Neptune- or Madison du Berlais for that matter- make the race into a truer test this time (for the record, on that basis I wouldn’t rule out Neptune to win the race, I just think ED is much better value). Given I share the concerns of some about the strength of this year’s King George form, there’s plenty of reason for me to swerve the best-priced 7/4 on offer.
Maybe that came accross belligerently it should not have. I retract any implied frustration in my last post but leave the sentiment to linger.
Interesting that McCoy is quoted as saying "I wasn’t disappointed by Albertas Run [today]"
I was David, but like i keep saying its the Gold Cup that counts!
he is now out to 20/1for that! shall i take a bit more of that Equitrack?Interesting that McCoy is quoted as saying "I wasn’t disappointed by Albertas Run [today]"
I was David, but like i keep saying its the Gold Cup that counts!
he is now out to 20/1for that! shall i take a bit more of that Equitrack?He’s 25/1 if you shop around. That is a huge price for a horse that may even improve for stepping up in trip. He will need everything to go his way though and he needs to have an on day.
Such a fluctuating market for the GC this year. The race can be won by outsiders (Cool Ground, Nortons Coin) and have large priced place horses (Sir Rembrandt, Harbour Pilot, Turpins Green) so I may play 3 or 4 of the 20-1 + each way and hope for the best. Air Force One, Barbers Shop and Albertas Run for example.
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Don’t waste your money, GWILSON77.
I think I’ll add him to my list of lays.
The doubts about Kauto Star are the same doubts from last season – a truly-run Gold Cup on ground worse than Gd will not suit him. Add in the fact that he hasn’t really looked his imperious best this season and I wouldn’t be backing him at the 7/4 that’s currently available.
I thought Paul Nicholls’ reaction was bizarre. His best horse and current GC holder runs a strange race. His jockey gets beat on him for the 2nd time and arguably does not ride the horse as he should – Denman normally front runs and by Nicholls’ own admission "he never wins from behind". Unlike after the Betfair Chase when Nicholls got all defensive, blamed Sam Thomas for the defeat, and claimed everyone is always slagging Kauto, yesterday he was very matter of fact, seeming to suggest the horse maybe had one good race in him which was the 2008 GC and is now on a downward spiral.
For me watching yesterday I found Walsh’s riding strange to say the least. Having taken up the running just under a circuit to go, the one place you want Denman to be, he seemed content to let Madison have the lead going out on the final lap. Then as Madison started to get several lengths up Walsh seemed painfully slow to react, sitting motionless until all the fences were jumped down the back and then starting to get busy rounding the home turn. By then, to my eyes, the gap was to far, and Walsh had let the race go. In that ground, which seemed pretty desperate to most trained eyes, it was asking some to give the current Hennessey winner that sort of lead and then expect ot give Denman a beating to make up the lost ground – imo Ruby was right not to beat the horse up, but was he right to take it so casually and only react when Scu had booted 6-7 lengths clear?
If I was Sam Thomas I would have felt pretty miffed that all the trainer could do post race was seemingly discredit the horse who had been so impressive last March, and make no reference to how easy Walsh had taken things. I cannot recall Walsh asking Denman for a "big one" at any stage ysterday, yet at Cheltenham Sam had ridden him very aggressively and asked him to take lengths out of his field at most of the jumps.
If we go back to Nicanor’s defeat of Denman at Cheltenham, that day too I felt Walsh had taken things too easy expecting his horse to find a turn of foot that he simply does not have – we know now he is an out and out galloper, like Carvill’s Hill but able to jump, and for me Walsh gets on with the horse far less than Thomas does.
It will be interesting to see if Thomas rides him at Cheltenham – I for one would give the horse another chance with Walsh back on Kauto Star.
One final post script. Denman seems to have been at the centre of some very bizarre betting patterns of late. First there is talk of connections favouring the National. The price halves, then the owners contradict that. Last week a plunge develops on McCoy to ride at Cheltenham – the connections and McCoy deny it after the money is down. Denman is 50% owned by a known pro-punter. Is it completely out of order to suggest that these rumours may have had something to do connections? It would be interesting if Denman hacks up in the Gold Cup at a half decent price in 4 weeks time. I wonder what we would make of the Kempton performance then, no least the less than positive riding tactics.
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All that is being confirmed is that either Denman isn’t as good as he was and connections know it, and/or he wasn’t at Kempton to win.
As an aside, what is to stop a hard-hitting punter like Harry Findlay spreading his money via friends and backing in accordance with who he knows will likely ride Denman in the Gold Cup? What sort of liability will bookmakers accept on such markets?
:lol: As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat?
I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
As of now!
I don’t think Denman would be disadvantaged by a flat track, but as we saw yesterday he does show signs of a preference for going left handed. However, I felt that what was most against him yesterday in terms of the track was the configuration. Denman’s best performances have come when he has been let loose a bit more at the front and allowed to gallop on and build up a strong rhythm with his long stride and powerful jumping. The configuration of the track at Kempton mitigates against a horse like Denman getting into a really effective rhythm. That is partly because the sharp nature of the track means they are racing on the turn a lot of the time and also because where there are straight sections the fences come fairly close together and are reasonably testing. A more athletic, ‘quicker off the mark’ type of horse like MDB has a natural advantage at a track like Kempton over a taller, heavier and more lugging type of a horse that relies on relentless galloping to win races. MDB obviously also handled the soft going very well too and clearly is a very useful horse in his own right and deserves a lot of credit for his run yesterday..
I wonder also if Kempton is perhaps more of test of stamina than is often thought. The constant changing of pace because of the turns and the relative closeness of the fences in the straights probably demands quite a bit from horses in terms of stamina, and particularly so on soft ground where the quite demanding fences require an extra effort to jump. On more galloping tracks and where the fences don’t come quite so close together, horses that can get into a good rhythm can be ridden more economically, I feel, and other things being equal that can leave them with a little more in the tank at the end of the race than is the case at a track like Kempton. Yesterday was certainly not the first time we have seen good horses finish well strung out on holding ground at Kempton.
Denman was out jumped by MDB generally yesterday. Tall horses often don’t jump as well out of holding ground though, particularly where the fences are fairly stiff. They tend to stand off and then realise it is not so easy to get out of the ground and clear the fence from so far off. It makes them a bit more cautious and probably takes a bit more out of them with the extra effort required to clear the fences standing off that bit further. Shorter horses find it easier to get in the extra stride and don’t face quite the same problem.
The point I was making, Cruella, is that Nicholls was happy to blame Sam Thomas for Kauto Star’s defeat at Haydock (compounding his view with the declaration that Ruby would have done better), yet despite stating that Denman wasn’t ideally placed throughout this afternoon didn’t have a bad word to say about the jockey.
hear hear! apologies, I more or less copied this opinion in my original post having not read the whole thread
. Now, either he knew that Nicholls was expecting nothing more than a leisurely stroll around Kempton, and that admissions of ‘little improvement to come’ would be false, or has already learned of Denman’s (likely) Gold Cup fate and remained unenthusiastic as a result.
I would be pretty annoyed if the Ditcheat camp already know that Denman is a shadow of his former self but are batting on regardless, and using his obvious public appeal to manipulate all manner of markets prior to it being made clear on the day the horse is finished. If this was true I would be disgusted as surely the horse must be retired if the heart condition has caused him to lose his form.
The point about him running a damn good race if you remove Madison is a good one – we would be all championing him as the second coming if Madison had not run.
A friend pointed out to me that a lot of people have and are losing fortunes in all sorts of investment vehicles and that we need to get ready for more of the same in terms of "strange" results.
Anyway, spare a thought for Best Mate. This true great wasn’t even in his final resting place before people were knocking what he had achieved. And yet the "greats" Kauto Star and Denman have started to show cracks in their armoury and it seems increasingly unlikely that they will ever win two let alone three Gold Cups. Because it took so long for Best Mate to equal Arkle’s post war record it surely told us how hard a feat it is, and if Denman is defeated next month, perhaps Best Mate will start at last to get more credit than was apparent at the time of his death.
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The argument that taking one horse out of a race would otherwise make another’s effort look reasonable has been exhausted and still remains utterly meaningless. A little too much ‘faith’ is being placed in the legitimacy of the finishing distances, too.
As for Best Mate, it’s a never-ending debate. Winning three Gold Cups was undoubtedly a great achievement, but the merit of his performances relative to those of Kauto Star and Denman is what is constantly questioned – and with good reason. Do you believe, in this universe or another, that he was good enough to have beaten the last two showpiece winners, or even Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges?
I can’t see it myself.
Do you believe, in this universe or another, that he was good enough to have beaten the last two showpiece winners, or even Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges?
Of course there are some of us who say – who cares? Does it matter?
Just enjoy each generation as it comes.
Why waste energy discussing hypothetical’s which can never be proved one way or another? It is difficult enough finding runners today, never mind worrying about yesterdays runners.
Remember them all for the enjoyment they bought us.
Why waste energy discussing hypothetical’s which can never be proved one way or another?
Half the fun is trying to establish the peer rankings of the current generation.
The other half is in trying to establish the current generations ranking against their forebears.
If such debates did not exist, we wouldn’t have much of a forum, imo.
For me, the e/w value is with Madison De Berlais. I don’t know that much about the horse as i’ve never payed great attention to him,
But enough to have £500 on eh Marble! i think you have lost yours mate!
i might not have fancied Denman strongly but i certainly wouldn"t have bet a monkey against an unbeaten Gold Cup winning chaser!:lol: As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat?
I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
As of now!
I don’t think Denman would be disadvantaged by a flat track, but as we saw yesterday he does show signs of a preference for going left handed. However, I felt that what was most against him yesterday in terms of the track was the configuration. Denman’s best performances have come when he has been let loose a bit more at the front and allowed to gallop on
and build up a strong rhythm with his long stride and powerful jumping. The configuration of the track at Kempton mitigates against a horse like Denman getting into a really effective rhythm. That is partly because the sharp nature of the track means they are racing on the turn a lot of the time and also because where there are straight sections the fences come fairly close together and are reasonably testing. A more athletic, ‘quicker off the mark’ type of horse like MDB has a natural advantage at a track like Kempton over a taller, heavier and more lugging type of a horse that relies on relentless galloping to win races. MDB obviously also handled the soft going very well too and clearly is a very useful horse in his own right and deserves a lot of credit for his run yesterday..I wonder also if Kempton is perhaps more of test of stamina than is often thought. The constant changing of pace because of the turns and the relative closeness of the fences in the straights probably demands quite a bit from horses in terms of stamina, and particularly so on soft ground where the quite demanding fences require an extra effort to jump. On more galloping tracks and where the fences don’t come quite so close together, horses that can get into a good rhythm can be ridden more economically, I feel, and other things being equal that can leave them with a little more in the tank at the end of the race than is the case at a track like Kempton. Yesterday was certainly not the first time we have seen good horses finish well strung out on holding ground at Kempton.
Denman was out jumped by MDB generally yesterday. Tall horses often don’t jump as well out of holding ground though, particularly where the fences are fairly stiff. They tend to stand off and then realise it is not so easy to get out of the ground and clear the fence from so far off. It makes them a bit more cautious and probably takes a bit more out of them with the extra effort required to clear the fences standing off that bit further. Shorter horses find it easier to get in the extra stride and don’t face quite the same problem.
All fair points riverman and I agree that big galloping types could be vulnerable at Kempton. I do feel though, that an in-form Denman would have finished in front of MDB at on saturday regardless of the track. I do agree that Kempton in sticky conditions gives a false reading regarding proximity.
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