Aon Chase 2009

[Grasshopper]

Trying to rate the race is a complete waste of time, as it’s clear that only MdB gave his true running. It’s better to ignore it, rather than guess (which is all you can do) at what the respective ratings might be.

We are

less

wise about the merits of the respective performers after Saturday, not moreso.

[underscore]

Marble – can we assume you’ll be staking your 7k profit on MdB in the GC. Surely with all that cash in the bank you’ll be moving onto the exchanges to play with all the rich people?

[Aristo]

quote]
If i had to have a bet Madsion is the only horse that i’d consider backing in the GC. Kauto and Denman both made rapid imporvement in their winning years, and now one is underpriced and the other out of form. They are something MDB can never be though – a "champion".

As long as David Pipe keeps Madsion sound up until raceday, and presuming Madsion handles the track and runs to within half a stone of his Aon form, he’ll be placed in the GC (imo).

You are not the first to say Kauto Star is under priced but I am in disagreement. He’s around 2/1 right?

Let’s go with the Denman won’t run camp for a moment. What then?

I can’t see any horse in the race that would have Kauto Star of the bridle apart from when Ruby says time to go lad.

Supposidly it was the Denman 2nd circuit tha beat him last season.

With no Denman in the race we are left with? MDB who clearly isn’t suited by the track having run badly there 5 times. Neptune Collonges who even in his very poor condition last year KS would have beaten easily but for last fence blunder and Exotic Dancer who is probably the mostly lkely to take adavantage of any mishaps by KS.

I think in this case the bookies have got it right unless Denman does turn up fighting fit. Even then he is perfectly capable of beating him.

With Denman in the race last season he went of at 10/11 fav.

With Denman out of the race I think KS is unbelievably good value at 2/1.

[Seventy Four]

As for Best Mate, it’s a never-ending debate. Winning three Gold Cups was undoubtedly a great achievement, but the merit of his performances relative to those of Kauto Star and Denman is what is constantly questioned – and with good reason. Do you believe, in this universe or another, that he was good enough to have beaten the last two showpiece winners, or even Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges?

I can’t see it myself.

But what comparisons do you use? The sort of scientific measurements that had Denman odds on to destroy his field on Saturday? Best Mate could only beat what was put in front of him. Ratings and times are all well and good, but I think as time elapses and we end up with another decade or 3 between double or even triple winners of the GC, his achievement will become all the more remarkable. What is more ratings do not take into account the fact a horse like Kauto Star is seriously flawed in the jumping department. I think crabbing his 3 wins by saying he is inferior to the two most recent GC winners and their runner ups is pure conjecture and in my book until any of them can achieve what Best Mate did. I have followed racing closely since the days of Pendil and when L’Escargot won the National I only began to realise the significance of his two GC wins. I never imagined it would take 32 years for a horse to equal that Cheltenham feat. Form experts are great at providing hindisght reasons for why one horse is better than another, but the hard part is predicting the future by way of ratings, and I don’t readily recall too many people predicting Denman’s demise on Saturday, nor Kauto’s in the Betfair Chase.

Very nice to see you mention L’Escargot here February – to my mind, still one of the best and most versatile winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup and one of only two horses in history to win both the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National (Golden Miller being the other in 1934 when he did it in the same season).

Yes, L’Escargot was not "fashionable" (whatever that might mean) and his blinkers may have put some people off, but he could really go when he wanted to and had it not been for Red Rum, he might well have added a second Grand National to his list of victories in 1974, when he was beaten by arguably the greatest Grand National horse of all time !

His name might have meant "The Snail" but nothing could have been further away from the truth and he had the speed to win the Gloucestershire Hurdle over 2 miles at the Cheltenham Festival as well. Personally, he has always been one of my favourites, and in my opinion, Best Mate (and many others) simply would not have seen the way he would have gone !

[Author]

Posts