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As for Best Mate, it’s a never-ending debate. Winning three Gold Cups was undoubtedly a great achievement, but the merit of his performances relative to those of Kauto Star and Denman is what is constantly questioned – and with good reason. Do you believe, in this universe or another, that he was good enough to have beaten the last two showpiece winners, or even Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges?
I can’t see it myself.
But what comparisons do you use? The sort of scientific measurements that had Denman odds on to destroy his field on Saturday? Best Mate could only beat what was put in front of him. Ratings and times are all well and good, but I think as time elapses and we end up with another decade or 3 between double or even triple winners of the GC, his achievement will become all the more remarkable. What is more ratings do not take into account the fact a horse like Kauto Star is seriously flawed in the jumping department. I think crabbing his 3 wins by saying he is inferior to the two most recent GC winners and their runner ups is pure conjecture and in my book until any of them can achieve what Best Mate did. I have followed racing closely since the days of Pendil and when L’Escargot won the National I only began to realise the significance of his two GC wins. I never imagined it would take 32 years for a horse to equal that Cheltenham feat. Form experts are great at providing hindisght reasons for why one horse is better than another, but the hard part is predicting the future by way of ratings, and I don’t readily recall too many people predicting Denman’s demise on Saturday, nor Kauto’s in the Betfair Chase.
I never warmed to Best Mate at the time..perhaps he was too good; too flawless..there was never the excitement of wondering if he would clear the last fence [or the first for that matter]..perhaps it was the singing and the eccentricity of the whole operation; being at Cheltenham the day when he raced with Sir Rembrandt and Harbour Pilot I remember thinking to myself that I would never again see three such good looking horses in a race together..they took your breath away as they walked away from the paddock.
I don’t think Denman lost because he was going right handed though his record clearly show his best form is going the other way. From the first tence he looked lethargic and never got into a rhythm. Nor was it just down to him not being sharp enough. Remember the vibes for him had been strong form the first time Walsh schooled him to the racecourse gallop the other day. While I appreciate the track is where it mattered most, connections obviously expected a lot more from him and that is worrying. Also he was close to running on Boxing Day so fitness can’t have been a major factor unless he had some kind of setback that we weren’t told about.
Also the front running thing doesn’t hold much sway, he was lead for part of both his opening 2 wins last season and came through well to win. We have to face facts that a heart trouble has done him no good and while he may still run and run well, he is a shadow of the horse he once was. If a human had a heart defect, they would not still be the person they were physically so why should he be different?
As for the winner, the race reminds me a bit of last year’s Victor Chandler where Pipe took a decent handicapper and won a big handicap with him, then followed up by thrashing an off form horse in a grade 1. It may be that Madison has a bit more yet to come and he can do well again (my guess would be the Betfair Bowl or at Punchestown), time will tell, but those behind clearly didn’t run their race so the form has to be taken with plenty of salt.Harry Findlay said before the race he wasn’t backing him. He went to the pub wih Sam Thomas and didn’t even bother going to Kempton.
I think that’s enough to tell anyone he knew the horse wasn’t fit, would badly need the race and wasn’t going to win. I really believe it is that simple.
Of course I really don’t know if there is anything seriously wrong with the horse, but if you run any horse up front for 2 miles at the speed they were travellng and any unfit horse will fold like a pack of cards.
On the other hand if he was totally fit but had shown them he wasn’t himself or ill in anyway, would PN have run him?. The vet/medical team would surely have been dead against it considering his previous illness.
The important thing is they got a run into him and he’s fine and until the announce differently the rest is pure misguided guesswork.
I agre aristo, findlay said in a telephone interview on ATR that he wouldnt be backing Denman as it was his last big piece of homework for the GC. Denman, having been a negative in the betting wasnt reallly travelling like himself from word go but still ran a very good second.
The horse arguably has a few negatives against him this time around in the gold cup but 5-1 with ladbrokes at the minute is just a crazy price on a horse who on his day is the best in the whole line up by some way.
Ive had a wee go, also think Albertas Run looks a cracking e/w.
- Total Posts 17716
If there was no sign of the same heart problem that had kept him off the track for so long, irrespective of his apparent wellbeing, why would connections not run him?
I wouldn’t have thought the pace of the race failed to suit either, whether he was fit enough to do himself justice or not (I’m of course working on the premise that he wasn’t struggling for fitness). The race was run only marginally quicker (9 or 10 seconds I think) than the handicap won by Strawberry and was in fact slightly worse, comparatively, than Tartak’s victory in the following event.
Madison Du Berlais hasn’t improved much, if anything, in winning the race in my opinion (his Hennessy win should have been 156 at best, which would have been in keeping with the run of 150+ figures he had run from in his previous five outings) and had everything go his way. I would have thought, even being cautious, that a mark of around 162 would be appropriate for the winner, meaning that Denman has run a long way below his best. Throw in his lack of enthusiasm and the reaction of connections, and Cheltenham would seem a hope rather than an expectation.
He’s a huge lay for the Gold Cup, for this year at least, and I wouldn’t mind laying him beyond 6, 7 and 8/1.
I agree Equitrack that MdB might not have needed to improve from the Hennessy to win on Saturday, but on the other hand, the form of the Hennessy should never be knocked.
Slightly squiffy, so I’ll make a more positive contribution tomorrow.
I thought denmans attitude on saturday was commendable, right from the off he looked to be more trundling than travelling, which after him being a big negative on the day, made me think he wouldnt make the first three. With that in mind he ran quite well IMO.
The strength of the form is definitely questionable, but for a horse whose festival record reads 2-1-1, unbeaten over chase fences at the distance at the festival can be backed at 5-1 hes worth a play, because for me it wasnt that bad a trial performance under the circumstances. When he was a short favorite I thought of taking him on, but now I think he’s becominga serious value bet.
Apologies if I am repeating anyone on here but my first thought at seeing Denman before the race was – is that really Denman. Had you shown me a picture of horse and jockey without me knowing exactly who it was prior to you showing me then I would have said it was Gungadu and not Denman.
That was not Denman (I know it was). The Denman on Saturday looked more like a shabby pit pony than a Gold Cup winner. His nickname is "The Tank" but in appearance he looked more like a broom. Was anyone else as shocked as I was by his appearance. I just can’t get over it.
When you see people who have had heart operations and a like they look jaded and gaunt and Denman looked just awful. Sad.
I thought it was fairly obvious Madison improved to win the hennessy, and then improved again to win the Aon.
Why do we have to pretend that to beat a champion you have to be a proven champion yourself? If only life was that simple; true is, Madsion put up a exceptional performance by any standards, and just because he hasn’t got a bunch of 1’s beaside his name does not mean he hasn’t logically run a 176. i think people make brave assumptions that he’s a lay in the GC are committing harry carry to be honest.
Funny you should say that Marb, I actually thought MdB looked to be throwing in a mid 170s performance the other day myself.
I’m firmly in the camp that believes Kauto had an off day in last year’s GC.
So, bear with me……..what if 10lb were knocked off RPRs for that race ?
KS would then have run to 169……….much more like it, imho.
# dons tin hat #
Apologies if I am repeating anyone on here but my first thought at seeing Denman before the race was – is that really Denman. Had you shown me a picture of horse and jockey without me knowing exactly who it was prior to you showing me then I would have said it was Gungadu and not Denman.
That was not Denman (I know it was). The Denman on Saturday looked more like a shabby pit pony than a Gold Cup winner. His nickname is "The Tank" but in appearance he looked more like a broom. Was anyone else as shocked as I was by his appearance. I just can’t get over it.
When you see people who have had heart operations and a like they look jaded and gaunt and Denman looked just awful. Sad.
Kendal,
i agree, thats what i posted earlier in the thread, when i saw Denman
in the paddock i thought he had shrunk, this horse weighs 555kg when he is fit, i would bet money he was lighter than that! Daft as it sounds i thought at one point that it really wasn"t him!!!!!!!!Just wondering about your post Equitrack about MdB only running to a mark of around 162, which may be correct. (you’re not the only person I’ve heard say that)
My point is if Denman had finished 23 lengths ahead of the field as MdB did with ease, would that mean Denman had only run to the same mark, or would we all be thinking the GC is Denmans as long as he turns up.
Pleased its worked out this way as the GC holds a lot more interest now.
Might get a decent priced winner out of it.- Total Posts 17716
I don’t think Madison Du Berlais ran to the 163 (RPR) he was awarded following the Hennessy and have serious doubts that he has improved sufficiently this season to have been thought to have run to 176 (RPR) at the weekend.
Madison Du Berlais had, prior to Saturday, run 30 times over fences and maintained an official rating of 150-154 in nine straight outings in the build up to Newbury. In winning the Hennessy he ran to around 156 (rather than the 159 he was credited with), which doesn’t deviate too much from the rather consistent precedent he had set. Are we to believe that, having seen his performances plateau somewhat, he is now capable of improving in the region of 14lb?
It doesn’t make sense, to my mind at least.
He had the run of the race at Kempton, looked in excellent condition, was receiving 4lb from Denman and was ridden to make the most of his stamina (the ground, I would suggest, was softer than good-to-soft). Nobody was keen to take him on, despite the less than hectic early pace, and he was able to gradually increase the tempo to drop the other runners in sequence. Denman looked pale and uncooperative, Albertas Run is generally inconsistent (but does handle soft ground) and Niche Market is a decent handicapper in graded company.
People keep bleating about how good Denman would have looked had Madison Du Berlais not been in the race. I’m not going to go into the pointlessness of that argument again, but the same people seem to be leaning toward a more literal interpretation of the form. If that is the case, why are they ignoring the fact that Kauto Star annihilated Air Force One in the King George (yet he was able to keep tabs with Madison Du Berlais in the Hennessy)?
The reason is that it’s clear that he ran below form, well below in fact, and any literal conclusions drawn would be seriously skewed. The same isn’t true in this case because people don’t want to admit that Denman is less of a horse than he was – the unyielding desire to believe, again.
On what we’ve seen in the last few weeks Kauto Star is streets ahead of Denman and, in all likelihood, still some way clear of Madison Du Berlais. If the latter is improving he still has plenty to find if he’s to trouble the places in the Gold Cup, as even Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer have superior form. If he does bridge the gap I’m fully prepared to look moronic, but I just can’t see it.
Anyone who wants 5/1 about Denman can have it.
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All I’m saying, marble, is that Madison Du Berlais showed no signs of the rapid improvement which would have led to him earning a mark in the 170s for his defeat of Denman on Saturday. His Hennessy victory wasn’t worth the 163 (RPR) he received, or indeed the 159 (OR), having him as I did at around 156. Even the time of the Levy Chase, comparatively slower than the graduation chase and marginally quicker than the later handicap, does little to support the idea that he is worthy of a sizeable hike in the ratings.
Commenting on something that didn’t happen is impossible, hence my aversion to the ‘take the winner out of the race’ argument and my disagreement with the idea that events would have been the same had there been a challenger for the early lead. But, to put it a different way, would people be raving about Madison Du Berlais’s supposed 176 performance without Denman in the race, or would he simply have beaten an inconsistent Albertas Run and a handicapper (Niche Market) having had everything go his way?
Last season’s running of Tamarinbleu showed that David Pipe could have an ‘almost horse’ tuned to the second to take on a vulnerable favourite, but when it mattered the performance could not be replicated. I don’t see anything different here and the more I think about it the more convinced I am that neither Madison Du Berlais, or Denman, are Gold Cup possibilities.
But, as I say, I’m fully prepared to be made to look stupid. I guess the profit (or indeed loss) column of my Betfair account will be the ultimate marker.
Actually, comparing Madison Du Berlais to both Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer makes for interesting reading. The latter pair are a similar age to the Pipe horse, are less experienced both overall and over fences, have shown a consistent level of improvement over the last two seasons and have proven form at Cheltenham.
Neptune Collonges at 7/1, and Exotic Dancer at 12/1, look stand out bets against Madison Du Berlais who has been priced up on the back of one debatable run.
I’m firmly in the camp that believes Kauto had an off day in last year’s GC.
So, bear with me……..what if 10lb were knocked off RPRs for that race ?
KS would then have run to 169……….much more like it, imho.
# dons tin hat #
I think you make a very good point. I’ve adjusted my ratings not just because of Denman’s run the other day but because I’m now of the opinion that some of the ratings were hype ratings on the back of widespread media / press / public acclaim.
Taking away the hype I now believe Denman put in a 177 performance last Gold Cup with Kauto and Neptune just touching 170 which as I rated Kauto 173 for his Gold Cup win (on better ground) makes more sense.
Master Minded is the same. He is widely touted as being a a 180’s horse but that is on the back of one run only, last years Champion Chase. If you take the rest of his form none of it is 180 plus, (I have him at 175). The Champion Chase was much like the Denman race the other day very difficult to rate at the time. Voy Por didn’t run to his best and neither did anything else which makes it difficult form to interpret.
Its so easy to get swept away with adulation and over-rate. Make no mistake about it mid 170’s ratings are extremely high as it is.
I thought denmans attitude on saturday was commendable, right from the off he looked to be more trundling than travelling, which after him being a big negative on the day, made me think he wouldnt make the first three. With that in mind he ran quite well IMO.
The strength of the form is definitely questionable, but for a horse whose festival record reads 2-1-1, unbeaten over chase fences at the distance at the festival can be backed at 5-1 hes worth a play, because for me it wasnt that bad a trial performance under the circumstances. When he was a short favorite I thought of taking him on, but now I think he’s becominga serious value bet.
Yep – I agree with that.
It may sound daft, but…at 3/1 I was willing to back KS E/W at 1/4 odds for the GC.
Now KS is 6/4 ish and Denman 5/1 ish I’d rather back the later E/W at 5/1.
My loyalty is not to a particular horse but the value in the race as I see it.
And Denman, though looking a lesser horse at kempton, CAN improve a fair bit and be placed at the very least in the GC IMHO.
Cheltenham matters most, not the Aon.
Zip
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