- This topic has 156 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Reet,
Albertas didn"t improve 13lb in the King George, he was already that good, its just that the Handicapper had underestimated his RSA win,he was a handicap good thing for the Hennessey, but dissapointed in Soft ground, he is defineately a 10lb better horse on Good ground though!GW
Then aren’t you saying that a 4.5l defeat of Roll along in the RSA equates to the 165 he was accorded for his KG 2nd? While he did disappoint in the Hennessy, that would probably be more down to the holding ground (Which is equally likely today) rather than any propensity for faster.
In that race, the RP has the time-based ground as good to soft (going allowance 0.78p.f.), slightly faster than the RSA (0.68 ), and appreciably faster than the Mildmay (-0.93).
Interestingly, though there may be more than a touch of blarney, this is what his trainer said about his KG run, which many rate so highly:
"Our horse hasn’t got the speed of Kauto Star around here and Cheltenham will suit him better – but it will need to suit him two-stone better!" – Johnjo O’Neill
On the above evidence, I wouldn’t even have the horse on my mind for a forecast.REET,
What i am saying is "Albertas Run" has been an under rated horse all season, Kempton wont suit him as much as it wont suit "Denman"
and Denman will be at least 95% fit for this being so close to Cheltenham.
If this race was on Good ground i would be very confident of Albertas running Denman close, i just hope neither dissapoint, as far as i"m concerned the Gold Cup is the race i want Albertas to show his best in
but i shall have a small interest today being a loyal supporter! i can already
see Albertas jumping the last alongside Denman in the Gold Cup and A.P
still holding on to him! Dream on says "Equitrack"!Everyone wants the Denman vs Kauto Star rematch in the Gold Cup, so hopefully Denman shows he retains his ability today and wins the race.
Agreed, Arazi.
Denman may have questions to answer, but so do most of the field.
Of the leading contenders, Albertas Run would prefer better ground, Joe Lively had a hard race at Cheltenham and Trabolgan, like Denman, has questions to answer but has the ability to run a big race.
Madison Du Berlais and Niche Market are likeable sorts but need to improve.
An Accordian is an interesting contender. He won competitve renewals of the Skybet Chase and William Hill Trophy last season but, like Denman, has not been seen since. This will be his eighth outing over fences and just the ninth start of his career, so you would expect further improvement. His fitness is an issue and David Pipe is still not in the greatest form. Worth keeping an eye on.
Joe Lively won three races in December 2007, but went four races without success in a two month period last year. His durablity is not in question, but it’s asking a lot of him to come here and win just two weeks after his Cheltenham slog.
I think Denman will win. Yes, the course is not ideal and the health scare is a worry, but the others also have something to prove and Denman is a very exceptional performer.
Joe Lively won the Feltham over CD last season but was subsequently well beaten by Albertas Run at Ascot and Cheltenham. I think Jonjo’s horse will make a race of it and claim second.
Question- if you are a monster odds-on punter, you own a horse running on a Saturday with 20lbs in hand and you are handed a slot on the major racing channel, what do you do?
At 8/11 I’m backing him!Harry’s not having a penny on him neither are the rest of the connections. That’s what Harry said infact he’s watching from home and concentrating on the Scoop 6.
He may be colourful at times but Harry is no liar.
Do you believe in Santa Claus as well Ian?
Question- if you are a monster odds-on punter, you own a horse running on a Saturday with 20lbs in hand and you are handed a slot on the major racing channel, what do you do?
At 8/11 I’m backing him!Harry’s not having a penny on him neither are the rest of the connections. That’s what Harry said infact he’s watching from home and concentrating on the Scoop 6.
He may be colourful at times but Harry is no liar.
Do you believe in Santa Claus as well Ian?
Are you questioning Harry’s honesty?
Well its nearly off time. Really looking forward to this. Hopefully Denman will return safe and at least show signs that he is still the same horse as he was before his heart problem. Its good for the sport to have horses like him. Fingers crossed.
I am backing Madison du Berlais each-way given the doubts about the front 3 in the market, vis-a-vis
Denman: fitness etc
Albertas Run: ground
Joe Lively: ability & distance (I think he needs further than 3m on a flat track)I am backing Madison du Berlais each-way given the doubts about the front 3 in the market, vis-a-vis
Don’t blame you mate I have a feeling Madison might go well here. I said earlier I wouldn’t be surprised to see the first three in the betting all get turned over here. Could be a funny race.
Well, not sure what to make of that. Not surprised to see an outsider win particularly Madison but by that far, can’t quite believe that.
Good call DB- but really sad to see Denman flop- John Francome called it right early.
Well done David.
I just hope Denman comes on a lot for that run.
Looked a shadow of his former self, but after 11 months off the track, it would take a lot to run upto his Gold Cup form.
I’m not so sure Denman did look "a shadow of his former self". Take Madison out of the race and he’s beat the others well. Had the winner not run Denman would be odds on for the Gold cup after that.
Gonna take some thinking about this race, not really certain what to think at the moment but I think Steve Mellish is right you underestimate the winner at your peril.
Now this really gets me – David Pipe primarily puts the improvement down to cheekpieces!
Now this really gets me – David Pipe primarily puts the improvement down to cheekpieces!
It is by no means the first time a Pipe horse has improved a ridiculous amount and gone in at a big price. Cheekpieces – yeah right lol.
Denman did look very rusty but that has to be expected and looked uncomfortable going right handed. I thought it was an ok performance and still beat Albertas Run by a good distance.
I will wait and see how he comes out of race but most likely back him for GC at 4/1. 5/4 for Kauto isnt that great a bet imo.
Great performance from Madison. Good to have another horse in the frame for the GC
I’m not so sure Denman did look "a shadow of his former self". Take Madison out of the race and he’s beat the others well. Had the winner not run Denman would be odds on for the Gold cup after that.
So are you suggesting that Madison de Berlais is worth a rating of 190+, if not then Denman has run a long way below par.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.