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If there was any chance of genuinely good ground at Cheltenham, then Kauto Star would be difficult to beat. However, the watering policy for the Festival will likely ensure nothing better than good-to-soft (certainly no quicker than the slow side of good) and with that Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are massive players.
MDB is a huge lay, as is Denman.
I’m probably on my own here but 9/2 Denman has got to be chance worth taking hasn’t it?
When having a bet at the festival, you’re always having a bet on the trainers having them right at the same time. Paul Nicholls has proved one of the best over the years and if he gets Denman fit, he’s simply a massive price.
Take MdB out the race yesterday and after over 300 days off with heart problems (no problem yesterday apparently) comes back and beats what should’ve been a race fit Albertas Run by 25 lengths with the rest nowhere to be seen.
If he beats Albertas Run by that distance at cheltenham, he should near enough win the race I would’ve thought.On a track that both the owner and trainer have both admitted in the past would never suit him, dont think its a bad a run as a lot of people are saying after such a long spell off. He was jumping to his left again yesterday which wouldnt have helped either.
I wasnt suprised at all with what MdB done, this horse is just pulling more out the bag every time he runs. Don’t think he’ll cope with the undulations of Cheltenham as well as some but a decent e/w option none the less.
Why stop at Master Minded? I’m against all four at the moment!
Why? Isn`t that just laying for the sake of it.
No. Not when I think all 4 are too short.
Dice Man,
when you are laying something that is for example 1/3, do you do it just because you think it is too short, or do you have some kind of inkling as to what conditions or who may beat it?
I’m just asking out of curiosity.
Gerald
Andrewhill you are not totally alone but I am a little concerned that denman may not start the GC. If he does I believe that with the combination of the cheltenham track and a sharper level of fitness he should be assured of a place so the 5/1 about him now offers the suggestion that a better bet could be denman to place at 6/5 rather than kauto to win at a similar price.
That being said if denman doesn’t come on at home for the race he may see the rest of this season from his box. At this stage it is kauto for me with considerable confidence but there is no value in his price. This GC may be better watched while spending my festival winnings over the bar
I think this years Gold Cup is very much going to depend on the ground. Its not going to take a Denman 2008 performance to win this years race. Denman I just cannot see retuning to his best in just five weeks. Its going to take a low 170’s / high 160’s performance to win this year IMO.
On good ground Kauto’s stamina will hold out and he is capable of such a performance so is Albertas Run and maybe Exotic Dancer.
On good to soft ground Kauto might just be Ok. Exotic Dancer I don’t think will truely get home in such conditions. Albertas Run might be Ok and Neptune Collonges comes into the equation.
On soft ground or heavy I think a 160’s performance will win it, Neptune Collonges and Madison Du Berlais are the only ones I can see running to that level on really soft ground, perhaps Halcon Genelardais.
When Kauto won two years ago the race time was just below standard, when Denman won last year it was nine seconds (from memory) below standard. If ever its run in a time 15 – 20 seconds below standard hardly any of the field will get home.
I’ve never quite worked out where this idea comes from that Kauto Star doesn’t have stamina.
Is is purely based on the notion he is so good at 2 miles?
Think you have to look at the second season brigade for this year’s Gold Cup winner. Really don’t know what to make of Albertas Run, but that’s 3 bad races out of 4 this year and I did say after the King George, that run may not have been as good as it looked as the 3rd horse blatantly didn’t stay. That said he ran a lot slower on Saturday so that was obviously a much poorer effort. If ground is the key to him, why does Jonjo keep running him on bad ground, it really doesn’t make sense.
If you take a line through Madison De Berlais then Air Force One has to come into the equation based on his Hennessy Run. But the fact he’s never won left handed is a slight worry, though that Newbury 2nd and his 3rd behind Wichita Lineman at the Festival shows he clearly can run well that way round. The late Irish Hennessy is a concern as he will only have 4 weeks to recover but he has to be one of those to consider.
There was also plenty to like about Barbers Shop, the only issue there is the lack of a grade 1 win on his cv. You could also crab that Sandown form, but it was a good follow up to a decent enough comeback run and he does seem to have been crying out for 3m plus.
The only other one to put in the mix for me is Imperial Commander. He is a much better horse at Cheltenham than anywhere else and the trainer does think the world of him. If the yard did recapture some form beforehand, he might not be the worst outsider, but is not one to back until that happens.
Also though I don’t always take hurdle form literally when talking about chasing, the fact Big Buck’s has run to a level in excess of 170 over hurdles and was going to be there or there abouts in the Hennessy really does give that race an even more solid look. Bet Mr Stewart wishes he’d kept him in the Gold Cup now because you never know if he’ll be back next year in the same heart.I don’t think I can ignore the 20/1 available for Barbers Shop..can’t see Henderson running a horse in the Queens colours that didn’t have a chance on the day [and she’ll be there I gather]…will think about backing Nipper after his run at the weekend; I think that 2 years ago they just used him to get Kauto Star round and last year he was ridden to win…tend to forget that he is still a young improving horse as he seems to have been around forever.[would like to see someone like Graham Lee riding him, though].
I’ve had the last of the 50-1 about Notre Pere- if the ground has any bit of dig, he’s no forlorn hope. I’m not convinced Kuato should be as short, he’s vulnerable in a true run race on softish ground. I’m a layer of Denman (finally!) and Madison de Berlais and think Neptune is too short as well. Not convinced Exotic gets this trip well enough to win.
I think this years Gold Cup is very much going to depend on the ground. Its not going to take a Denman 2008 performance to win this years race. Denman I just cannot see retuning to his best in just five weeks. Its going to take a low 170’s / high 160’s performance to win this year IMO.
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Would he have to be at his best to win if Kauto Star doesn’t perform?
I wold rather be on Denman 95% fit than most of the others who are a 10lbs and more behind him.
I have always been in Kauto Star’s camp but he can root a couple of fences a anytime.
Madison Du Berlais has never ran well at Cheltenham in 5 outings. I was very impressed by he way he travelled at Kempton but his defeat of Air Force One getting weight and his previous record, is a long way off Gold Cup form.
Neptune Collonges get the trip but was flattered last year IMO but the fact remains he is a good horse. He doesn’t seem to have improved though and looked beaten when he fell in Exotic Dancer’s race. Of the two I prefer the waiting tactics used by McCoy to see him come out on top.
Albertas Run will only be a force if the ground rides good or better and I can’t see that being the case.
Barber’s Shop goes straight to the Gold Cup. His ability has been blown way out of proportion by everyone except his trainer and he has little or no chance of making the frame. Not unless Nicky Henderson has Master Minded a PN style second coming and isn’t telling.
Notre Pere is a bit of a dark horse who will stay the trip but his traget is the National. Could be worth an EW bet to pick a place up late on at best.
I can’t see past Kauto Star Denman Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges and see no reason why they wouldn’t send the horse even if he was oly 95% right. Another run certainly won’t so him any harm.
I’m not sure about Notre Pere going for the National; the trainer didn’t seem at all keen on the idea a while back..I just think he could be a very good horse, but it could just be that he reminds me a bit of Jodami…I backed him at 50/1 the other day as well so hope he does run at Cheltenham…having said that I can see him having a hard race at the weekend.
I personally am wondering if there will be somewhat of a ‘suprise’ in this years’ Gold Cup.
Denman doesnt look like he will win another Gold Cup so soon, Kauto Star is the favourite but will he gets things he own way, especially if Madison Du Berlais gets him the way Denman did last year, and the way Tom Scu did to Denman at the weekend.
I havent been convinced with Neptune Collonges this season either.
I personally would like to see Exotic Dancer or Air Force One win the big one, basically because i adore those horses, everyone has their favourites, but whether they would, is another question.
While I think Neptune Collonge’s price is a bit skinny, especially compared to Exotic Dancer’s, I can’t see how you can say he has not impressed you so far. He’s only had one run and is a horse who tends to improve for his seasonal debut and was running a huge race before tipping up and was by no means beat. While I won’t be backing him, I do rate him as a serious danger and the best of the more establish horses.
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