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I’ve had a decent each-way bet on Star De Mohaison tonight at Billy’s 50-1. he travelled like the best horse in the race today but didn’t get home in the ground. He’ll run a lot better on decent ground in March and ex-Sun Alliance winners have a good record. Denman still has to prove his fitness so who knows….
I tried writing a reply a couple of times last night Carvills, but I aborted it each time because I couldn’t phrase it properly.
Here goes again.
This idea of backing a horse because it is a good price, or good value, is one that some of us find easy to adopt.
The question to be asked and answered when looking at a race is not "who will win", but "who is the best price (in relation to its chance of winning)".
Why do we bother telling other people what our conclusions are, when a very likely scenario is we will be held up to ridicule?
With the Aon now looking unlikely to take place and his entry in the Hennessy not made (looks off also), surely its time to start worrying a bit more about Denman. His medical condition is fine, we are told, but he has less than six weeks left till the big day, he has no intervening entries to date either, at this stage. Straight to the Gold Cup? Find a hurdle race somewhere? A big ask for our Champion trainer…fortunately he stables the next 5 or 6 in the betting… as a consolation.
Nicholls could always run him in the Country Gentlemans Chase at Wincanton… He may end up running against one or two opponents but it would be a nice introduction.
With the Aon now looking unlikely to take place and his entry in the Hennessy not made (looks off also), surely its time to start worrying a bit more about Denman. His medical condition is fine, we are told, but he has less than six weeks left till the big day, he has no intervening entries to date either, at this stage. Straight to the Gold Cup? Find a hurdle race somewhere? A big ask for our Champion trainer…fortunately he stables the next 5 or 6 in the betting… as a consolation.
I was thinking along exactly the same lines today when Newbury looked dodgy and laid Denman for the GC- the downside is small as even if PN finds a race somewhere and he wins he won’t be much shorter on the day. The closer it gets to the Festival the less time he’s got to recover also.
Not sure if this is a good or bad thing but I’ve now laid all the favs for the big races there bar Master Minded!Apparently if Newbury is off then the BHA are keen to re-stage the Aon and Game Spirit to take place "next week" (no more specific than that at this stage) so presumably Denman would line up in the rescheduled Aon.
With the Aon now looking unlikely to take place and his entry in the Hennessy not made (looks off also), surely its time to start worrying a bit more about Denman. His medical condition is fine, we are told, but he has less than six weeks left till the big day, he has no intervening entries to date either, at this stage. Straight to the Gold Cup? Find a hurdle race somewhere? A big ask for our Champion trainer…fortunately he stables the next 5 or 6 in the betting… as a consolation.
I was thinking along exactly the same lines today when Newbury looked dodgy and laid Denman for the GC- the downside is small as even if PN finds a race somewhere and he wins he won’t be much shorter on the day. The closer it gets to the Festival the less time he’s got to recover also.
Not sure if this is a good or bad thing but I’ve now laid all the favs for the big races there bar Master Minded!Why stop at Master Minded? I’m against all four at the moment!
The owner (P Barber) and, particularly, the trainer’s comments on Denman this season, do not stand any forensic examination.
hang on…I thought they said Kempton wouldn’t suit Denman?..ever….
Ah, but there’s no Kauto Star to scare them away.
Why stop at Master Minded? I’m against all four at the moment!
Why? Isn`t that just laying for the sake of it.
Denman beats Albertas by 8l at Kempton today, that would create opinion
giving Kauto did the same thing in the King George! Denman v Kauto
headlines again, but this time it would at least give credibility to the e/w
chances of Albertas in the Gold cup having raced twice against the big guns! Whatever happens today i am convinced on Good ground the real
Albertas will love everything about the Gold cup and along with the real
Exotic dancer are capable of winning the Gold cup with a bit of luck! I
personally think Denman will be pretty straight for todays race and you only need to look at his form figures to see anything other than a 1 would not look good after the race!I chickened out of my Gold Cup lay of Denman- I reckon he’ll win today and will still be inclined to lay him afterwards.
That was a mighty performance…just noticed Madison de Berlais is only an 8yo…feels like he been around forever! Could just be improving at an alarming rate! He won the Hennessey and lets be honest, that race is only ever won by good horses. I am in shock at how good he was there!
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