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For what its worth i remember checking the volume traded on the AP market for the gold cup on betfair a few days before it closed. I believe more money was traded on Denman than Kauto over the previous 12 months in a ratio of something like 3.5:1. I realise a lot of money would have been tied up in doubles and trebles involving Kauto star but with which horses? Quevega? MDH? My double and treble with cousin vinny, binocular and Kauto certainly didnt come in but i guess they would have considered that to be a profit made on cousin vinny. Surely a valid point?
Following his run in the gold cup i thought Denman looked every inch the national horse cruising easily at a 3 1/2 mile chase speed and i imagine would hold the gallop throughout the 4.5 miles required.
However, for the purposes of this ‘rant’ that is irrelivent.
Paul Nicholls volunteered a statement in January suggesting that he was firmly coming round to the idea of running Denman in this years grand national – in his ‘prime’ i think was the statement made. Following a multi million pound AP gamble he then issued a further statement around a week later clarifying that his intent was ONLY to run Denman if his gold cup campaign went awry.
I think Mr Nicholls was highly irresponsible initiating a market fever just to backtrack days later. Most irritating of all is the fact something DID go awry with Denmans gold cup campaign, he galloped to a bloodless second place at Cheltenham and yet STILL his participation from the GN is withdrawn – and has been for some time.
Quite clearly Denman would not run at Aintree unless something happened that would result in him still not running. Thats what the market assumed his entry would amount to back in 2008 until the idiot stepped up and made the bookies millions.
At least i assume it was the bookies who profited…
Currently on butlers at 20’s, southern vic @ 110-1, rambling minster @ 21’s, garde at 65’s, state of play @ 34 and Brooklyn brownie @ 80’s.
I doubt if I will remain exposed on all these horses come the day but currently they appear the most dangerous. Of those mentioned I consider rambling minster the best EW shot and garde the least likely to factor in the finish.
There’s not much else in the market that interests me at this stage least of all any Paul nicholls runners.Any ideas about garde champetres participation on the national chaps? Also what’s your views about the back to firm character building?
I agree. There is no horse capable of troubling KS in the upcoming king George. I wouldn’t put two further wins beyond the realms if possibility either.
I had a wonderful festival this year with my NAP big bucks coming home and i have been bullish about Kauto Star for some time now. That being said i dont fully subscribe to the theory that Kauto was unfit last year. The only way Denman was going to beat KS last year was by doing exactly what he did. The evidence of Kautos discomfort was clear to see but that would have been evident also if the high cruising speed was in fact the cause. On GS ground both fit i would have to give the nod to denman, with any ground variations obviously swinging the verdict either way.
As for 2010 i dont see either of these warhorses being the victor. I am not convinced about cooldine but at heir respective ages i believe the golden era of their dominance in the GC is in its twilight.
But what an era it has been.
I was at cheltenham today and want to point out that there was a considerable rain shower around the time of the William hill, in between the champ hurdle and the supremes. Could be as much as 2mm of rain I would guess. That may be a factor in how the two times compared.
Kauto was all out last year due to the pace set by Denman (possibly combined with any other fitness issues not ironed out) If that same pace is set and maitained this year then he is in danger again but tell me what could set that pace? There is no horse in this race with the cruising speed of Denman last year (including Denman) so this years Gold Cup is just another race set up for KS to do what he does best against oposition he has already done it to.
Yep definately wants good but has form on GS with Calgary bay giving 8 lb and going down by 4L. Its gonna be hard to know exactly how the ground is gonna play out at this stage with the forecast winds..
If were gonna see soft ground on the day which im sure we probably will now i would rather be on Osana given the record for previously placed winners in this race. I will be there on the day and there is no way i could let the stands erupt around me if Katchit won without having a piece of it myself.
Osana EW and Katchit small stakes EW.
If there is any ‘good’ in the running description I will leave place bets on the forementioned using the BF place market and place a reasonably sized double on MM and Bino.
My fancy for this year is Tatenen i really belive this fella has evrything to win a arkle a chaser with pace that stays over 2 miles which i think you need to do to win a arkle eg fast pace and the hill.
Wen Tatenen destroyed Straw bear over CD in december people didnt think the form was that solid with straw bear not taking to been a chaser but SB hurdle form over the CD was a to a very high standered and to beat him the way he did really impressed me
Wen he got beat over in ireland i feel the race was all wrong for the horse smallish field the course etc….i really feel if tatenen comes here showing the form he did wen he beat straw bear he can run a massive race and feel he can show his class to this lot and ive backed him for last few months wen he got pushed out for losing in ireland
Smallish field in Ireland put you off but small field victory v straw bear impressed you? Sounds like the blinkers are on…..
For what its worth i think Calgary bay is a worthy favourite but both imsingingtheblues ans followtheplan can throw up a result at better prices.
Out of respect for your earlier selections on the forum I also had a small interest at 25’s KJ.
Sometimes it is easy to get trapped behind the word ‘statistic’ when it comes to evaluating available information. Let me give you an example – BFT runs well and looks classy when winning a handicap. He looks like a big stamina laden type with lots of class and is trained by champion trainer PN who rates him highly.
Now, all the reasons you like this horse are based on precidents set by previous winning types of this race, ie you look for a high cruising speed, a touch of class and improving ability, large stamina type horse with distance trip pedigree. These are all traits that you are looking for based on previous successful horses. A horses age and number of chase runs are considered in the same way when making a selection. Dont consider the ‘stats’ to be just numbers written down about a horses profile, they are just as much his pedigree, size, improvement and carriage.
