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Well, I may have had an ante-post bet Graeme, if betfair had opened a market on it.
Now I’ve started this thread, I suppose it is incumbent on me to analyse it on Friday evening, once the final deccies are known.
The horse that I thought was a certainty, Darkness, is probably running at Newbury in the Veterans Chase, and has had a breathing operation since the Welsh National.
Cloudy Lane is running at Kelso on Saturday instead.
I can see a few more not turning up, so this might end up being a small field.
Alderburn probably isn’t quite good enough (4lbs lower than when 7 length 3rd in this race last year), but he is the one that I have a problem with: the trainer has said that the target for this horse is the Whitbread. Now how should one view a horse that has a declared main target for the season, yet is running in a fairly valuable race prior to it?
Only the trainer can know that answer Gerald. The horse in question usually has a 4-6 week gap between races anyway, so the race at Donny then the Whitbread would fall into this trend.
Just to let you know, this race will be delayed as I am drinking in the pub.
Payday. Went to pay the rent. Decided to hang around to check out the new barmaid.
Was only able to send this message because I combined it with a toilet break.
Didn’t do any chatting up – not my thing thing. So demeaning ( to me).
She’s left now. The funny thing is, one of the times I ordered a new drink (Newcastle Brown Ale – no Real Ale sold), the Landlord asked the barmaid to serve me, even though she was in the middle of mopping the bar floor. He gave me a wink as well, either meaning he knew I was sort of intersted in her, or, thought we were a suitable match.
Anyway, what I am mostly interested in for the next few months is the Flat, and monthly or fortnightly trips to Paris.
I have to say, in all honesty, this is far more interesting than any Grimthorpe analysis
Gerald, see the barman who winked at you, were his leather trousers as tight as yours ?
Neither of us wear leather.
He gave me a tip that I put £50 on.
However, I can’t buy him a drink (drinks) as I used my £300 daily allowance to pay him the rent.
Am now going to catch the bus to Tescos, just to buy something, in order to get £50 cashback.
Jeez, what a palaver to get £50 cashback. First of all, I had gone shopping at the BP garage, but they don’t do cashback; then, I had gone to Somerfields just as they closed at 8pm, then I came back home as I had a wait for the bus.
Unlike the train, one is not allowed to drink beer on the bus.
I went to the self-service area, but at the end of my buying, it didn’t offer me a cashback facility. I rang for assistance, and was told this. I asked if I could cancel my purchases, and put them through a normal checkout, but was told I couldn’t. I then got a head of celery and went to a checkout. At the end of my transacion I asked for £50 cashback, but was told I had to ask for it at the start of my transaction. I then complained that when I shop at ASsociated DAiries at the self-service checkout it offers a cashback facility, anf that when I use my card at Somerfields they ALWAYS monotonously ask if I want cashback. I then asked if she could re-scan the celery. She said that she couldn’t cancel it and put it through again. I said that I wasn’t asking her to cancel the celery, I wanted to but it twice. Finally did the biz.
Anyhow, here are the deccies. I’ll have a shave and a shower so that I am ready for work, and then I’ll look at the entries. To be honest, I am going to have three bets at Newbury, but I doubt I’ll be betting in this.
NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 P8U Gungadu 28 9 11-12 P F Nicholls 59 Harry Skelton 5 156 128 164
ch g Beneficial — Tsarella (Mummy´s Pet)
Only 4lb higher than when winning last season´s Racing Post Chase over 3m at Kempton but not been at best this season since fair reappearance at Ascot and trainer suspected he needed a little more help from handicapper prior to unseating before race had begun in earnest last time.
2 -P0 Comply Or Die 78 b 10 11-8 D E Pipe 57 Timmy Murphy 152 82 164
b g Old Vic — Madam Madcap (Furry Glen)
Revitalised by blinkers last season but now 13lb higher than when winning last year´s National; didn´t pick his feet up in two starts without headgear earlier this term but better showing likely here with headgear refitted.
3 52P Ungaro 7 10 11-0 K G Reveley 67 James Reveley 3 144 142 167
b g Epervier Bleu — Harpyes (FR) (Quart De Vin (FR))
Failed to do himself justice at Kempton last week but solid record of three seconds in valuable handicaps (two Skybets and this race last year) on this track demands respect and he holds Alderburn and Gidam Gidam on running 12 months ago.
4 -33 Alderburn 70 10 10-9 H D Daly 59 Andrew Tinkler 139 103 167
b g Alderbrook — Threewaygirl (Orange Bay)
Consistent and now 4lb lower than when just losing out to Ungaro (2lb better off) for second in this last year; third in competitive Ascot event in December when in front of Gungadu suggests he´s as good as ever and no reason why he won´t run well with trip/ground to suit.
5 247 Idle Talk 70 p 10 10-6 D McCain Jnr 67 Brian Harding 136 91 165
br g Hubbly Bubbly (USA) — Belon Breeze (IRE) (Strong Gale)
Not so careless at fences as he used to be and has completed in last two ventures over National fences; disappointing efforts last twice mean he´s now only 1lb higher than when creditable second on soft at Carlisle on reappearance and connections believehe´s better served by today´s conditions, so not without hope.
6 254 Out The Black 70 11 10-0 P J Hobbs 67 T J O´Brien 130 117 165
b/br g Presenting — Executive Wonder (IRE) (Executive Perk)
Another who doesn´t want ground too soft and going slightly easier than ideal when fourth, one place behind Alderburn (1lb worse off) over 3m at Ascot; longer trip no worry (stays 4m) and could go well with stable in such good form at present.
7 224 Apollo Creed 77 7 10-0 N A Twiston-Davies 31 David England 129 150 163
b g Rudimentary (USA) — Persian Argument (IRE) (Persian Mews)
Great strike rate on a sound surface over hurdles and fences last spring/summer; showed he can still be competitive despite climb in handicap when second at Stratford in October and easy to forgive soft-ground flop here in December when last seen; not without hope if refreshed by break
8 143 Gidam Gidam 28 tp 7 10-0 J Mackie 0 Phil Kinsella 128 140 161
b g King´s Best (USA) — Flamands (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA))
Running well of late, finishing with a flourish when third off 2lb lower mark over 4m here last month after winning over similar trip to this at Catterick in December; held by Ungaro and Alderburn on running in this race 12 months ago.
9 063 Noir Et Vert 8 8 10-0 Ferdy Murphy 37 G Lee 126 131 163
b g Silver Rainbow — Danse Verte (FR) (Brezzo (FR))
Most progressive top-of-the-ground novice chaser two seasons ago and honourable fourth in last year´s Kim Muir at Cheltenham, one place in front of Idle Talk on similar terms to these, even though lacking previous run; hampered at crucial point when beaten favourite last time (rain-eased ground wouldn´t have helped) and still think there´s a decent prize in him.
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Long Handicap: Apollo Creed 9-13, Gidam Gidam 9-12, Noir Et Vert 9-10
Comply Or Die: will only run if the ground is suitable, states trainerGood grief, all the RP analysis has come through. I’m not looking, honest.
I’m not going to do a horse-by-horse because you will all know most of these horses. They like the trip and the ground, they’re getting a bit old mostly, and they are rated 3lbs or so higher or lower than when they ran well in such-and-such a race.
I’ve probably been a bit perverse in making Idle Talk favourite, as he has never won a H’cap chase. Idle Talk runs well when fresh. Personally, I like Gidam Gidam, as he was barely 6yo when 4th in this last year.Here goes
Probability My decimal price Horse
0.110 9.1 Gungadu
0.070 14.3 Comply Or Die
0.120 8.3 Ungaro
0.130 7.7 Alderburn
0.170 5.9 Idle Talk
0.110 9.1 Out The Black
0.080 12.5 Apollo Creed
0.130 7.7 Gidam Gidam
0.080 12.5 Noir Et Vert
1.000Okay, now I can go and see what the odds are in the Real World.
I’m sorry Bulwark, but I don’t understand why Gidam Gidam is such an outrageous selection.
It is not as if there is a standout handicap snip, or that there are a lot of progressive horses in the race. I think Egerton made a mistake sending Darkness to the Veterans’ Chase, because I think this race is easier!
I don’t think there is a pacemaker, so I think there is a possiblity that Gidam Gidam can make his own pace.
The trainer, Mackie has a 0% trainer form figure on the RP website, but he had a 33/1 winner and a 12/1 3rd at Wolverhampton yesterday.
I am thinking of implementing a policy of only backing horses that wear cheekpieces for a couple of weeks, because the buggers seem to crop up everywhere.
Would love to see John Mackie take this prize and wouldn’t let the price put anyone off. You would be lucky if he had 50 quid on anything, even if he thought it was a good thing.
But Ungaro just leapt straight out at me and if he is ever going to win it should be today.
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