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At this stage some trainers dont know for certain either Gerald. I imagine a lot of the forumites on here have as good an idea which route a horse will take as its trainer does. After Denmans run yesterday lets just hope he doesnt line up for the GN this year, as i for one can flush my whole portfolio if he does.
By the way, don’t think that any serious form study, or consideration of the horse’s attributes contributed to me being big on State Of Play. I was getting 200 for an ex-Hennessy winner who had already won, and been placed in a valuable h’cap, this season.
Milbear, you are thinking that if Denman did participate in the GN, he would be fairly close to what he was last season (for them to bother running him)?
I believe that denman at his best would gallop the national to victory carrying top weight. However in his current form he has not got the fitness to win and his participation would throw most of my selections too far out of the handicap. If he participates I would back the current champion to repeat.
Well from a pedigree perspective King Harald will be one definitely on my side, if he gets in, with two GN winning sires within his immediate pedigree. He wasn’t stopping when he won at Donny last year and I’ve watched the DVD four or five times now and his jumping has improved markedly. Yes, he does seem ground dependant but his sire’s progeny have also perfromed well in softer conditions as borne by the fact that King’s Road won a Hennessy in a bog so if it came up bottomless and a slowly run National ensued I still wouldn’t be put off. His sire has had a third in the race in his own right and was damsire of 4th placed It Takes Time.
definately ‘useful’ information that! possibly a sleepless night for the handicapper or perhaps he never though Denman would run anyway.
I should have thought most ppl ruled him out of the national after his run @ Kempton.
Any ideas about garde champetres participation on the national chaps? Also what’s your views about the back to firm character building?
I can’t see Character Building getting into the race; needs an awful lot of horses to pull out.
On the contrary Moehat, I think he’s a certainty to get in. I think even horses down to Maljimar have a decent chance of getting in- a lot will come out.
d’y’think so? that means I’ve got to have about 6 more ante post bets then; just wish I knew if Exotic Dancer was really going to take his chance, it would makes things [slightly] more simple.
Simon is out of the betting; I wasn’t expecting him to run after his poor run at Cheltenham, but I hope he’s ok.
he’s fine but due to being pulled up and running a poor race at cheltenham followed on by poor form this year they pulled him out
along with snoopy loopy, notre pere, imperial commander, miko de beauchene
Doen’t Irish Invader have a link with Busted; does that provide stamina eg Deano’s Beano, French Holly..might they not just be campaigning him over shorter trips like Slim Pickings?
What’s the bottom weight likely to be and is it always the same?
Sorry if that seems a bit ignorant but never really paid much attention to this.
1.The weights will rise to 11-10 (so the highest rated horse left in at declaration time will carry 11-10)
2. The rest of the field will have their weights increased by the same amount.
3. The 40th horse declared will be the bottom weight and will carry whatever original weight was assigned to it plus the amount the weights were raised. Reserves similar.
IMO, bottom weight will be about 10-3 this year. It will vary from year to year- hope this explains it.
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