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I know you’ve given your opinions on a few of the runners on here KC, but would it be too much to ask you to go through the current leading fancies from a stamina point of view? I know you are negative on the current gamble War Of Attrition and I reckon you’re right, but would love to hear any strong opinions on the others.
Southern Vic has a pedigree of contradicitions – if you like! Until I am proven wrong by the Strong Gale influence that has now stood for years then I will steer clear of everything with his name in it’s pedigree. Yet SV does have the influence of Paddy’s Stream in there too and he was the damsire of Scottish National winner Take Control plus SV’s sire is the same as Comply Or Die. However, I just can’t see him lasting but that’s only my opinion.
My Will is by the same sire as dual Irish National placed horse Marcus Du Berlais and his damsire is probably the foremost French NH stallion of recent times Cadoudal – sire of most notably Big Bucks and Lacdoudal – but Cadoudal has himself sired some decent staying stallions such as Kadalko sire of Notre Pere and Scottish National runner up Ladalko. This horse does have what it takes to stay and is probably one of the most stamina laden French horses to have ever taken part, especially in recent times. You now have to decide whether he will win or find a way to be placed again!
Rambling Minster: a good advert for the St Leger. His sire did of course win the great race. His damsire Buckskin was responsible for Amberleigh House but up until fairly recently horses with the influence of Deep Run had a similar record in the National to those with Strong Gale – but Papillon put that one to bed in 2000 and Cahervillahow was second in the void National. Deep Run sired 1993 Scottish National winner Run For Free (also won the 1992 Welsh National) and 1985 Welsh National winner run And Skip. This horse just ticks so many boxes for me even aside from the pedigree. This race is full of so many negatives and this one has so many positives.
How does Rambling Minster perform in big fields?; He’s just too perfect..too Point Barrow…
I saw him in a big field once – he loved the big wide open spaces as far as I could see!!!
Rambling Minster has no problem with big fields. He is hard to fault, except to say that most horses who win the National aren’t in such winning form in the current season. He’s my bogey as he’s never been much of a price but I can see him going very well.
KC, can you categorically state that because a horse has Strong Gale as his grandad he’s got no chance of staying 4 1/2 miles in a National?
As far as I know and I am willing to stand corrected on this only two Strong Gales won over four miles (and the amount that ran over that distance is well into three figures) and they were Ceananas Mor in a very poor race at Cheltenham with not many runners and Risk Of Thunder who won the La Touche Cup eight million times (but he never looked like a stayer on a park course). Ad Hoc finished runner up in a Scottish National and Stormtracker was runner up in an Eider (there are a couple of other runner ups in minor 4 milers).
Right now the stat, as I have regularly bored people with, is that Strong Gale has NEVER been found in the pedigree of either the winner or even a placed horse in the National. For instance four Strong Gales went to post in a poor 1997 renewal when there were only 27 runners and on ground the progeny generally preferred and even then not one of them could place.
However it remains to be seen whether the further back his influence is the more diluted it becomes (as it should do) and therefore although I won’t be on I will be interested to see how WoA gets on (Stong Gale is three generations back in his pedigree as opposed to two for the likes of SV, Darkness, Hear The Echo, Offshore Account etc.)
The Strong Gale stat (and it’s my very own!) has served me well over the years so I won’t be abandoning it just yet.
Is there any reason why Brooklyn Brownie isn’t attracting any money?; I think he’s a great ew bet at 40/1, but whereas horses like Kilbeggan Blade have been supported over the past week BB is friendless..Character Building is now drifting; wonder if theres a problem.
I’m using some of the stats established on the long-range thoughts thread.
12 of the last 13 winners had run twice by the 1st week of December. I have been a bit lazy and have included all those who had run twice by entry time.
12 of the last 15 winners had won a chase over 25+furlongs. I have been compiling my spreadsheet over the past couple of months, and I may have missed a horse who has won recently. Horses still have the opportunity to qualify for this criterion.
This is a rather crude statistic, but at the moment as I am interested in is making sure I haven’t overlooked something obvious for the race, rather than actually picking the winner; if you allocate a RP flat stamina index of 15f for those stallions without one, then if you combine the figures for the sire and damsire, the lowest figure of a winner for the past 15 Nationals was 24.5f
Furthermore, KC has stated that stamina is more important on the dam side. Excluding Bindaree (9.7f), the lowest figure for a damsire was Comply Or Die (12.8f). (Strong Gale is 12.5f)
14 of the past 15 winners were aged 9-12.
Putting that altogether, in roughly OR order, we are left with
War Of Attrition
Ollie Magern
Comply Or Die
State Of Play
L’Ami
Mon Mome
Garde Champetre
Cornish Sett
Himalayan Trail
Character Building
D’Argent
King Harald
Dun Doire
Patsy Halledit: This list provided the 1st, 2nd and 4th. Not bad, as I was only looking for the winner, and not placed horses.
[/color:rtqkaxbz]Furthermore 10 of the past 15 winners were relatively [edit: in]experienced over fences, having run 14 or less times by December preceding their victory.
This narrows it down to
State Of Play
Himalayan Trail
Character BuildingAssuming that the statistics used are accurate, and independent of each other, then there is a
12/13 * 12/15 * 1 * 14/15 * 14/15 * 10/15 = roughly 43% chance that one of those three is the winner.and we’ll never know what sort of race Character Building would have run, Gerald. Please, whatever you do be around next February when the weights come out. When the weights came out this year I drew a line above Parsons Legacy, and ticked Roll Along, Ballyfitz, Priests Leap One Cool Cookie and Mon Mome; below that weight I had Musica Bella, Irish Invader, Rambling Minster and Southern Vic; of those the the only one I backed was Mon Mome along with Character Building, Niche Market and Cloudy Lane. I think I put money on the ones that I knew were definately being aimed at the race and whose prices would, I assumed, come in a lot later. I thought 10.6 for Mon Mome was a fantastic weight considering what he had achieved, but he had such a hard season going in and out of form,11st seemd a lot of weight for a tiny horse to carry and the Midlands National was the nail in the coffin [although he probably ran to keep the weight down for Flintoff, and wasn’t given a hard race; I read somewhere that he ran a better race under top weight than at first seemed to be the case]. I’ve lost money over the years backing horses that were never going to run in the race and have a fair idea now which ones to avoid. However, it was a very starnge National, and I’m sure the false starts had quite an effect on the result. Stats that still seem to hold up are Strong Gale; having a run not too far from April [SoP, although he goes well fresh perhaps blew up a bit, although he had too much weight for a small horse as well;actually, understand that he had a bit of bad luck in running, and should have finished a lot closer,shame for connections]. They all had a touch of class about them, and the good staying types like Kilbeggan Blade etc did nothing. Cheek pieces were a no no as well. Anyways; back to the drawing board..it’s been huge fun; I’ve spent most of my life never having anyone to discuss the National with, so I’ve been in racing heaven for the past few weeks. Thanks everybody!
Yes Moe, I thought the false starts had an effect on the result as well.
Just to shock people, I was going to publish my list of Grand National bets, but it seems a bit too complicated to get all the data. Lets just say there were over 70 horses in it!
I didn’t pay any attention to the size of the horses, and I also didn’t pay any attention to horses having had a run in the past couple of months, as most of my bets had already been done by then.
I’ve learnt a lot this time, and I won’t waste so much money next year. Despite all the crazy bets on horses such as Merigo, I still ended up making a £900 profit on the win market and £150 on the place market.
I think a very interesting trend I used was horses having had a couple of runs by Christmas time. This seems to weed out those that aren’t fully fit.
I didn’t pay much attention to ratings, as I think the nature of the race is still changing, and this year it seemed best to ignore ratings, what with the issue of whether Denman was running or not.
KC’s stamina issue still reigns supreme, and I will pay more attention to it next year.
The other thing I will do next season is not to have ante-post bets on 7yos and 8yos. If they are going to arrange it every year that the going is on the easy side of Good, then I think this might tip the 7&8yos over the edge in terms of staying the distance, and play into the hands of the 9-12yos.
edit: I’ll also try to avoid the horses verging on Gold Cup class – they are such cockteasers in terms of not actually running in the race.
I take it this qualifies as useful information.
Does the fact that no top weight since Red Rum has won the Grand National mean anything? Or is it just a coincidence?
I have only form dating back to 1985 in my library so will just go from there.
The average SP of the top weight in the last 23 years has been 15/1. This 15/1 is a bookies price, with a bookmakers mark up added to what they feel is it’s true chance. So, let’s take off just 1% from that price making it 18/1.It is surely not that surprising that there has been no winner. As just one win in that time would almost break even.I wonder what we’d find if taking the 10th highest weighted horse or the 28th. Would they be any different? I do not know as I have not done the working out.
893 horses ran in the Grand National.
135-893 = 15.1% of horses carried 11 stone or more in the Grand National.
758-893 = 84.9% of horses carried under 11 stone.
Many more horses carried less than 11 stone.18-92 = 19.56% of placed horses carried 11 stone or more.
74-92 = 80.43% of placed horses carried less than 11 stone.
18-135 = 13.33% of all those carrying 11 stone or more were placed.
74-758 = 9.76% of all those carrying less than 11 stone were placed.
Those carrying more than 11 stone have a better strike rate of being in the first 4.2-135 = 1.48% of those carrying 11 stones or more won the race.
21-758 = 2.77% of those carrying less than 11 stones won the race.
It would only be reasonable to have expected 2 more wins from the 11 stone or more category.If just 1 horse is taken out of the 2006 Grand National (Numbersixvalverdie), the top weight would’ve won, Hedgehunter (2nd 5/1).
Take just 2 horses from the 2005 running (Hedgehunter & Le Coudray) for the top weight to have won, Royal Auclair (40/1 3rd).
Take 4 from 2004, (first 3 home plus Le Coudray) Montys Pass (4th 20/1).
Take 3 from 2002, (Marlborough, Kingsmark (3rd 16/1 ) and Bindaree) What’s Up Boys.
Take 4 from 2001, (First 3 home plus Beau) Papillon (4th 14/1).In 5 of the last 8 Nationals one of the two top weights were placed.
Coincidence or not? Damn lie or statistic?
Discuss
Mark
2009 Result
1st 11 stone
2nd 11 stone 6lbs
3rd 11 stone 4lbs
4th 11 stone 2lbsWith Mon Mome winning:
Interesting that if there was just one more win for the 11st or more brigade since 1985; they would have a better percentage strike rate of winning the race.
From 1985 onwards there’s been 933 horses to run in the National.
152 carried 11 stone or more, only 16.3% of all runners.
781 carried less than 11 stone, fully 83.7% of all runners.
Those to carry less than 11 stone outnumber those who carried 11 stone or more by over 5 to 1.Now it is 3 from 152 (1.97%) runners to carry 11st or more won the race.
Now 21 from 781 (2.69%) runners to carry 10st 13lbs or less won the race.4 from 152 would be 2.63%.
20 from 781 would be 2.56%.Hopefully we have heard the last of this weight statistic / "trend".
Mark
Value Is EverythingOr, put another way, a hoss with less than 11st is almost seven times more likely to win ?
Given that Rambling Minster was fancied by so many people, I still haven’t heard anything as to why he was pulled up. He was certainly further back than he possibly should have been, but was he pulled up because of the horse falling directly in front of him [did it stop him in his tracks, or injure him?] or was he going so badly there was no point in continuing. I’d also like to know that the horse is ok as well; there are usually quotes from the jockeys of losing horses somewhere, but can’t find anything anywhere.
Had my main bets yesterday on Character Building and Mom Mome on the assumption that if Denman ran badly prices of fancied horses would come in a bit. King Harald is the one that I’m not sure about, having backed him a couple of times last season only for him not to run; not sure why he is so lightly raced.
WELL PLAYED that gal!
Given that Rambling Minster was fancied by so many people, I still haven’t heard anything as to why he was pulled up. He was certainly further back than he possibly should have been, but was he pulled up because of the horse falling directly in front of him [did it stop him in his tracks, or injure him?] or was he going so badly there was no point in continuing. I’d also like to know that the horse is ok as well; there are usually quotes from the jockeys of losing horses somewhere, but can’t find anything anywhere.
Rambling Minster was in front of Cerium (5th) and Arteea (every chance at last fence). Wonder if the Reveleys regret pulling him up. Though they were not to know the pace would slow so dramatically after Black Apalachi’s fall. Seemed as though Rambling Minster was just hampered a bit at the fence and then pulled up. When listening to the Reveleys talking before the race on BBCTV, I was dismayed when James said he planned to hold the horse up (or words to that effect). His improved form on his last two starts have been when racing more prominently or with a view of the front. I was expecting a ride similar to that given Comply Or Die.
Mark
Value Is EverythingFound a photo of the horse falling directly in front of him, and with a loose horse to the side….maybe it completely unnerved the horse, or he got a kick from it….watching the re run he seemed to be jumping ok prior to that; told so many people in the run up to the race what a great chance he had, need explanations [Point Barrow all over again].
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