King George 2014

[Steeplechasing]

A reroute from the Lexus for Bobs Worth, perhaps?

[stevecaution]

A reroute from the Lexus for Bobs Worth, perhaps?

Bobs Worth and Road To Riches have been weak in The Lexus betting.

I have heard that they want decent ground for Road To Riches and if it turns out that Kempton looks more likely to provide that then Meade’s horse may yet turn up.

Just for something to watch on Boxing Day I have put a few quid on

Road To Riches at 20/1 (Stan James)

because he’s only 10/1 with Ladbrokes and I think he’ll run a good race if his jumping isn’t too markedly left. I just feel he’s probably underrated.

Simonsig is looking appalling value to me at 5/1 with Boylesports, and I’d rather chance Bobs Worth at

five

times those odds and risk that he doesn’t turn up.

Champagne Fever looks skinny to me at as low as 7/2, and the boat was missed earlier with Silviniaco Conti.

Merry Richmas!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Venture to Cognac]

Not a race I worry too much about having a bet in, I’m just as happy to sit back and enjoy.

If I was having a decent bet, then I’d probably side with

Menorah

, but in the end went for

Theatre Guide

up to 520’s, but I suspect he won’t survive tomorrows Forfeit Stage, and

Wishfull Thinking

up to 240’s.

A bit of fun at those prices.

[JJMSports]

Simonsig out of the Peterborough and not certain for the King George. Fresh on the back of the Sprinter news (out of the tingle creek).

Nicky is some boy for misinformation. Basically talked a load of baloney about these two last season/earlier in the year.

Basically, I’ve done my absolute conkers ante post!

[Gingertipster]

It beats me how some people can moan about Henderson putting punters away, can only tell it how he sees it right there and then… Did say that both Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre were doing well, but I think some are forgetting the warnings. Certainly an "it’s early days" message in there too, even if not in those words… And both horses haven’t been seen in ages, so that tells you they’re fragile. Anyone punting fragile horses ante-post must take in to consideration a giant sized chance of not getting a run.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Silviniaco Conti

ran right up to his best in winning the Betfair and deserves to be favourite here having also won this in 2013. I’ve had a saver on him @ 4/1. The now top price of 3’s looks stingy to me considering he only outstayed

Menorah

in the final strides of a race a furlong further and on deep stamina sapping ground. I took 16/1 about the Betfair runner-up gaining revenge, 12/1 still outstanding value imo, albeit owner and trainer also have 2012 neck runner-up

Captain Chris

and

Wishful Thinking

. Latter unlikely to run and simply not good enough anyway. Former obviously has form to go close and a wide margin winner of his last two starts, but hasn’t been seen since February and is available at twice the price of his stable companion. Improvement in Menorah’s form has coincided with an improvement in jumping technique this season, although wouldn’t like to see too big a field. Unlike Silviniaco Conti, we now know he’s equally effective on very soft or good ground and slightly less of a stamina test could bring out a bit more improvement. Menorah is a top class racehorse who is yet to be given the credit/respect he deserves from punters and bookmakers.

Also taken 12/1

Al Ferof

after an impressive come back for a second successive year in Amlin Chase, admittedly with main rivals below form. However, despite trainer believing the horse needed it put up his best performance yet. Had seemingly valid excuses when running at this trip previously and runs (at shorter) as if could be suited by 3m. Proved disappointing after reappearance last year, never moving with usual fluency when only distant 3rd in this race (diagnosed with ulcers afterwards). Hopefully can realise potential, although bearing in mind his problems and current 8/1, might be better waiting until the day if you’re not already involved.

Champagne Fever

will be a danger to all, appears from betting and owner’s words could be coming over from Ireland. Bred to stay but bit of a stamina doubt. Yet to race further than 2m4f and is a front runner who can pull hard at shorter trips even when given a soft lead. Might not last home if taken on in front. That said, always been a horse I’ve liked and has enormous potential. But that’s more than taken in to account in the 4/1 price, Willie Mullins factor working overtime. Needs a dramatic step up on previous form and that might be asking a bit much in one go.

Value Is Everything

[kasparov]

A bit strange that both Silvianaco Conti and Al Ferof have had ulcers. Is Nicholls ahead of the game once again in medical matters,is it their diet at Ditcheat or maybe his horses just get very stressed?

[stevecaution]

I agree with Gingertipster that Al Ferof is short enough for this now.

He was a horse I was against last season and on his comeback this season I looked to see if I could oppose him but looking at the field I concluded he would win it.

Everyone seemed to get very excited about him in the aftermath of his expected success and I believe it was a performance not to get carried away with.

I’ll be surprised if he’s up to winning this and 6/1 looks skinny on the back of beating a couple of old cuddies like Somersby and Wishfull Thinking, who are well past their "best before" dates.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Peruvian Chief]

Following O’Neills news that Johns Spirit goes for this I think he,s become highly interesting. Only 7 and could be on the upgrade.

Perhaps a similar profile to Exotic Dancer, but unlike that one this Jackdaws inmate has no Kauto Star to get to.

Perhaps a long shot, but I think most of the market leaders have doubts about something or another. I’ve been looking for some value and Johns Spirit at 25,s fits my bill.

Would much appreciate thoughts about him from others.

[Venture to Cognac]

I wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off either PC, and think you’ve got a sporting chance with that 25’s.

Really took to him this season, after he kind of passed me by. I haven’t bet him for this, but I have had a go on him for The Gold Cup, even though The Ryanair looks the likelier target.

Good luck with him.

[milbear0]

From a value perspective at this stage 25/1 seems about right to me. JS has never won over 3m to my memory and doesn’t show the same adeptness over flatter tracks as he does at Cheltenham. He’s also stepping out of handicap class and although not forlorn, those three question marks put him firmly on the back foot against some of the market principles for me.
I’d be more interested to see him compete in another handicap over 3m at Cheltenham rather than graded at Kempton to see if there is the required improvement available. Perhaps a conditions race like the argento? Jonjo has plenty of horses for the gold cup though and at his age I’d say JS stays Ryanair this season VFC. Maybe next year?

[Venture to Cognac]

Totally agree with that milbear, he’s surely Ryanair all the way……just thought I’d take a chance on the GC, at the prices available, just in case and all that

[Himself]

Paul Nicholls has always believed that Silviniaco Conti was a star in the making.

The horse is at the peak of his powers now, and I see no reason why he cannot win this year’s King George renewal .

As it happens , I have taken a cheeky punt on the horse completing the double – King George & Gold Cup

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[stevecaution]

Paul Nicholls has said he wants it soft for Silviniaco Conti and I would agree with that based on his Betfair win on that going, as compared to the poor effort he put in on a sounder surface in The Charlie Hall.

The trainer has always maintained that Silviniaco stays really strongly, which seems at odds with the opinion of plenty who believe he’s not a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse.

I would say this is probably his last chance of going to Cheltenham and pulling it off. If he can’t win it in this open looking year you would really feel it’s just not his race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[milbear0]

I find Paul Nicholls a trifle over enthusiastic at times. I’ve been on a tour of his stable when the great Kauto, Denman, Big Bucks and a poorly Masterminded were in residence and since those super stars have moved on he’s had a procession of new ‘stars’ occupy their boxes opposite the office. If memory serves; mon parrain and Michael le Bon have been ‘gold cup’ horses of the future and although the champion trainer frequently surprises me with his ability to over achieve with many of his horses I can’t help but feel that he needs to believe the next Kauto is already housed at Ditcheat.

On a separate note, didn’t Paul state in interview that the paddy power was ‘caid du berlais gold cup’? Certainly tempers my enthusiasm for him to be spot on for the Casper. Paul has always been one to target a race for a horse and have them razor sharp on the day, at the expense of later targets.

[harvey2000]

What game are Henderson and Morlock playing?
After Henderson saying he wouldn’t run Simonsig without a prep race and that he wouldn’t run him over 3 miles on his return from a year off, Morlock comes out of the woodwork and says there’s a good chance he could still run and that they are doing everything they can to get him there. A few days later Henderson reverts back to what he originally said and that it was unlikely as I wouldn’t want to run him over 3 miles first time up in a King George.
Now I know I’ve done my money ante post (more fool me) but can anyone explain to me why there is such a conflict of opinion between the trainer and assistant trainer?? One says (the trainer) it’s highly unlikely it will run, and the other (assistant trainer) says we’re doing everything we can to ensure he does run??? Why not just say he won’t run without a prep race, that’s the end of it, instead of misleading the public….or will they do a Binocular again??? Or does the left hand not know what the right hand is doing? It’s all very strange or all very unnecessary….just an opinion….

[Steeplechasing]

It won’t be any consolation, Harvey, but you were spot on with your first post in this thread. Henderson must be pretty determined not to run BW right-handed as he’s already taken him out of the KG, despite the fact that the Lexus meeting could easily be lost to the weather. Very strange decision given that he bothered entering him in the first place.

[Author]

Posts