Arkle

This topic contains 125 replies, has 30 voices, and was last updated by Himself Himself 4 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #496903
    befair
    befair
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    I thought UDS’s jumping was exceptional till the fall; I’d certainly give him another chance or two

    #497273
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    I’ve already backed Vautour for this but there has to be a chance he’ll go for the JLT. Mullins comments about stepping Valseur Lido up to the RSA trip ass further weight to the argument that Vautour could go for the intermediate race at the festival. I’d rather see him in this but have had a little Un De Sceaux (Arkle) and Vautour (JLT) double just in case that’s the way Mullins wants to go.

    While I think Vautour is the standout candidate for the Arkle, there is value to be had further down the market. Namely Sgt Reckless, who made an excellent chasing debut and is entered at Sandown this weekend. It’s worth looking at the Supreme Novices and focusing on Sgt Reckless for the whole race because it was a quite remarkable run. He must have been 15 or 20 lengths behind Vautour jumping the third last, but he passed a most of the field between there and the line, finishing a staying on fourth, beaten under eight lengths by the impressive winner.

    At 25/1 he looks overpriced.

    #497401
    kenslow
    kenslow
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    Rich Ricci calls the shots. There’s no way I can see him being happy about another owner’s horse going for the Arkle, so I think of the two Mullins horses Vautour is by far the most likely to turn up.

    #497447

    stilvi
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    You have to wonder what they will do with Un De Sceaux should he suffer another mishap. Yes, he did look very exciting before exiting but given his style of racing chances are he is never going to be the safest conveyance. Unlike plenty of other tracks Cheltenham still takes a bit of jumping.

    It would seem pretty obvious to go back hurdling but the trainer prevented him from running in the Champion Hurdle last season to protect Hurricane Fly and now he has Faugheen heading that market.

    #497708
    thehorsesmouth
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    Clarcam gave a boost to Vautour’s form today, winning a novice chase easily at Navan. It was a really impressive round of jumping from Clarcam and Elliott says he might take on Vautour again at Christmas. It would be no surprise to see him in the Arkle later in the season.

    #499119
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    Un De Sceaux 4/1 best priced for the Arkle but if you want to back him with this race in mind you can get him at 9/2 to win any race with racebets.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #499148
    befair
    befair
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    • Total Posts 983

    Thought UDS jumping was not quite as spectacular today, even though he got round safely. He does look like a bit a tearaway, the way he attacked the first fence. Willie might decide to send him or Vautour for the 2 mile champion, esp with doubts over Sprinter Sacre. I think either for them might be good enough for Sire de Grugy

    #499194
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
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    • Total Posts 2078

    I really like Un De Sceaux. He stays a tiny bit further than 2 miles in Grade 1 company and will have the benefits of Cheltenham’s rapid drainage to make the Arkle a little less taxing.

    In relative terms, he does seem to be getting a little more amenable too. Ruby caught hold of his head after the initial surge today and was able to ride the last two thirds of the race rather than being a passenger all the way.

    #499549
    befair
    befair
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    Definitely not writing off Vautour; that was a serious mistake, and that he only pipped the 3rd shows how below par he was. Having said that, Clarcam was impressive, finished like a train in what was very soft ground

    #499669
    KingSprinterSacre
    KingSprinterSacre
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    interesting that it was Paul T beat on both the Mullins/Ricci horses – vautour and kalkir. Would the superior jockeys (Ruby)guidance have seen them home or was it just a poor day at the office for them both?

    A lot of short priced horses have been beaten at leopardstown over the last 2 days

    #500038
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8707

    There’s way too many imponderables regarding both ‘Un Des Sceaux’ and ‘Vatour’ for me to commit to either as serious Ante-Post players for the Arkle so I’ve gone elsewhere.The Mullins horses trade at silly odds for this 5/2 and 5/1 respectively when we really dont know which will turn up and having seen both this year there’s a black mark against both.My selections been called a few names but not by me,he’s a horse I’ve always had a soft spot for and even though he finishes 2nd more times than he wins I believe he is a horse who just needed time mentally for the penny to drop.This fellow is a proper 2 miler,he travels jumps and now can battle.Ladbrokes have taken my £100 e/w at 20/1 this morning for the Arkle,they will wish they haven’t come March! 8)
    Oh yeh the horse is called

    Vibrato Valtat

    by the way.

    #500044
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
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    • Total Posts 2078

    About 20lbs short of class isn’t he TAPK? You’d worry about each-way betting with the last two runnings having less than eight runners too, especially if Vautour or Un De Sceaux turn up to scare away the dead wood.

    Arkle runners right now:

    Un De Sceaux OR Vautour
    Josses Hill (if fit)
    Ptit Zig (JLT option)
    Gilgamboa
    Clarcam
    Vibrato Valtat
    Dunraven Storm (fragile horse, runs if fit)
    Irish Saint (Grand Annual alternative)
    Court Minstrel
    Sgt Reckless
    Rags

    Another worry is the recent record of Nicholls at the Festival. He still has some who perform, but has had dozens of previously solid horses who drop out the back of your TV set come March. Realistically, class is the main issue though. There’s no way he’d beat Josses Hill, Ptit Zig, Vautour, Un De Sceaux, Ptit Zig or Gilgamboa in straight match races.

    His only achievements of the season are beating a flat Dunraven Storm (a horse with a history of deteriorating as a season goes on) and just about seeing off low 140s horse Three Kingdoms.

    #500046
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5489

    About 20lbs short of class isn’t he TAPK? You’d worry about each-way betting with the last two runnings having less than eight runners too, especially if Vautour or Un De Sceaux turn up to scare away the dead wood.

    It’s a great each way betting race for that very reason. A couple of short priced horses in the betting and in all likelihood only one of them will run, probably Un De Sceaux.

    #500047
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8707

    About 20lbs short of class isn’t he TAPK? You’d worry about each-way betting with the last two runnings having less than eight runners too, especially if Vautour or Un De Sceaux turn up to scare away the dead wood.
    .

    Dont follow TYF…..The idea of snaffling 20/1 e/w is all about hoping only a few turn up that only helps the ante-Post cause.Of course one of the few needs to be

    Vibrato Valtat

    in this case.I believe this fellow has shown 20lbs of improvement since October,that tells me he has more to come. :wink:

    #500186
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8281

    About 20lbs short of class isn’t he TAPK? You’d worry about each-way betting with the last two runnings having less than eight runners too, especially if Vautour or Un De Sceaux turn up to scare away the dead wood.

    Arkle runners right now:

    Un De Sceaux OR Vautour
    Josses Hill (if fit)
    Ptit Zig (JLT option)
    Gilgamboa
    Clarcam
    Vibrato Valtat
    Dunraven Storm (fragile horse, runs if fit)
    Irish Saint (Grand Annual alternative)
    Court Minstrel
    Sgt Reckless
    Rags

    Another worry is the recent record of Nicholls at the Festival. He still has some who perform, but has had dozens of previously solid horses who drop out the back of your TV set come March. Realistically, class is the main issue though. There’s no way he’d beat Josses Hill, Ptit Zig, Vautour, Un De Sceaux, Ptit Zig or Gilgamboa in straight match races.

    His only achievements of the season are beating a flat Dunraven Storm (a horse with a history of deteriorating as a season goes on) and just about seeing off low 140s horse Three Kingdoms.

    I don’t particularly fancy Vibrato Valtat but if you back him now you get 1/4 odds 1-2-3 the place, even if only 3 run on the day.

    He’s 20/1 with Ladbrokes, yet as low as 10/1 elsewhere so you can see the logic behind the value angle.

    Paul Nicholls more or less ruled Ptit Zig out of The Arkle, stating that it would be the last choice, after JLT and RSA in that order of preference. 6/1 for Ptit Zig for the Arkle looks like a bet for suicidal virgins only

    Vautour has a bit to prove now and has the extra handicap of being in my Ten To Follow, which is something akin to a two stone penalty from the handicapper.

    Vibrato Valtat is rated 153 now, so he probably needs to improve again with Un De Sceaux having been a highly rated hurdler.

    You make a good point about Nicholls at Cheltenham though. Last year was one where he struggled to make much impact and I steered clear of several of his fancied ones, with no regrets.

    It could well be a smallish field on the day but that won’t matter to ante-post punters.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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