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I agree too, but should and will are a different proposition. He’s not for me until he starts doing what he ‘should’.
If you want, I can build quite a convincing case that you are the same.
edit: the main stumbling block is milbear’s knowledge of British reality/celebrity/competition programmes, which Fist has never admitted to.
I would enjoy seeing the evidence laid out before me Gerald! Go on, ask me one on Ice dancing too. Admit it though, I was bang on with Chris Hollins and Joe McElderry…
Ginger I don’t want to requote again so I will just reply. IC is IMO the only horse with the potential to challenge kauto here, but the key word is POTENTIAL. If kauto comes out and runs just a few pounds better than his betfair effort I don’t see any other horse in this race able to take him on with. That bring said IC needs to improve again from his last run and adapt to a track and direction that haven’t been proven to suit him. How much improvement can we realistically hope for if he takes to the track? Make that decision yourself but if IC is going to turn in a 180+ performance this year it will be at Cheltenham in march IMO.
The value bet is still kauto. I agreed with your analysis of the race but not your interpretation of the value. If Kauto is twice more likely to win this race than IC are you suggesting that rerunning this race 9 times would achieve 6 wins for kauto and 3 for IC? I don’t see it that way. The term ‘great bet’ was incorrect from me, I was referring to my agreement that you had identified the danger – I wouldn’t bet on him here though. Apologies if I mislead.
EDIT: Apologies about grammar and spelling, I post most often from my iphone and the stupid small buttons make me seem iliterate; dont hold it against me
4/6 looks fair value for Kauto Star on his record in the race. But whether he’ll be able to reproduce previous form is yet to be proven this term. In my opinion not at his best on reappearance in the Betfair Chase when possibly not fully fit. However, despite Nicholls words, very well backed on the day which suggests he was fit enough. Some improvement on that run can be expected, but it is not certain he’ll be at his best. Almost 10 years old and French breds often reach their peak sooner than their English or Irish cousins. It is possible, if not probable we’ve seen the best of Kauto Star, though will be difficult to beat even on last time out form.
If Kauto Star did run to form at Haydock, then Imperial Commander is an outstanding price at 6/1 (or 7/2 without KS). If not at his best, then an improver, proven at 3m is what we should be looking for. Imperial Commander looks the answer. It is true, he does have an excellent record first time out and has not ran to form right-handed (only two starts that way). But when he ran in the King George and Punchestown the trainer was well out of form, with very few runners running well. Those two runs can easily be forgiven. At 6/1 the price makes it well worth the small chance of him not performing, especially with Twister going so well at the moment.
Maduson Du Berlais usually comes on a great deal for his first run and needs to. Well behind in the Betfair Chase (friendless on the run up to race day) and did not jump with his usual fluency. Convinced he’s best leading or racing wide with a view of the front. In the Gold Cup had horses on both sides and seemed to give up. Goes well on a sharp track, either way around. 8/1 compared to 6/1 Imperial Commander does not look value.
Deep Purple is improving, but still needs to improve a good deal to win this.
Barber Shop is a possibly at the price. Some don’t think he stayed at Newbury, but was with stayer Niche Market two out and only finished just behind that horse at the finished. There is a possibility though he will improve again at slightly shorter.
Nacarat won the Racing Post in the style of a very good horse, but needs to be better than ever and has run poorly this term.
Alberta’s Run was second in this last year, is inconsistent and possibly needs to race prominently out wide, gives up when crowded. Getting plenty of weight when successful at Ascot.
Tartak looked a possible improver at the end of last season. Showed he’s coming back to form when chasing home Deep Purple. Was an excellent jumper as a novice yet it fell apart on reappearance. Far better at Huntingdon but still made a couple of bad errors. Without those would have been a lot closer to Deep Purple. Could be a nice speculative couple of quid exchanges bet on the day.
In my opinion Imperial Commander has a chance of beating Kauto Star and should beat the rest if running to Betfair form. So 7/2 with WH without Kauto Star and 6/1 with, look excellent value.
I dont disagree with your analysis Ginger and agree that IC is a great bet. That being said Kauto is still the selection even off the back of the betfair form. The "frenchbred’s early decline" mantra has kept the price on Kauto value every time he runs and as long as I back him with belief at evens, he can only ever cost me the stake he has already doubled….. time and time again.
On the same logic IC’s clear improvement can potentially put him in the picture for the gold cup in March and he will be carying my E/W money as he did last year for the Ryanair. A win wouldnt be beyond him and a place should be very much within his sphere.
Oh by the way your majesty the strictly results are given TONIGHT, and I like your logic but please dont wait until tomorrow my friend. Good luck in running.
If I were you I would lay off more of your Ricky bet reference strictly TAPK. Chris has won the public vote the last 3 weeks in a row (fact) and is dancing a Lindy hop in the final, which should compliment his charms perfectly. I make him 4/6 on rather than Ricky and would be very suprised to see the public desert their man after backing him all the way to the final.
milbear you are bang on! Like i have said if this competition was about dancing ability then Ricky would be a certainty!TAPK is never short on confidence but i have a S**t feeling about the outcome of this!Current betting is 1/2 Ricky,6/4 Chris!what i will do tomorrow night after Ricky has wiped the floor with him and its down to Joe Public is lay Ricky at 1/5 for another £50 thereby potentially gaining £50 for Chris but only losing £10 of my Ricky profit!Are you not tempted backing Chris at 6/4 yourself,or do you have bigger prices?
I backed Ricky at 3.7 on betfair early in the show. When Ali was dropped into the dance off by the viewers I took a saver on Chris at 15’s as the only possible danger. 3 weeks ago I laid off my total potential win on Ricky and shifted it to the already significant green on Chris. Also Chris is working an accumulator with Joe (x factor) and Kauto (King George) at around 5/2 and 1/1 respectively. Ricky should win, hes probably the best ive seen on the show but it would take a monumental public turn around for that to happen. Provided Ricky doesnt come accross like an underdog tonight I believe Chris will win. The Lindy hop is clearly suited to Chris and he gets the pimp slot also in the final.
If Ricky wins I lose nothing but Chris will pay for xmas eve’s festivities and give me a really good day at Kempton cheering on the legend that is the star.
Hahaha great thread! My money is on fist if it comes up soft. Depends who jocks him up though.
I don’t think we will see HF’s true potential this season until Willies stable begins to fire. I’m sure there’s plenty to look forward to but I wouldn’t have HF for this. Could be he runs a big race but I’ll oppose him on this occasion.
I think JP and jonjo have a mutually beneficial arrangement. JP is more interested in winners than horses, if you get my meaning.
Ted you have a lot on your mind this morning. Any chance you could condense all your thoughts to a single thread?
If I were you I would lay off more of your Ricky bet reference strictly TAPK. Chris has won the public vote the last 3 weeks in a row (fact) and is dancing a Lindy hop in the final, which should compliment his charms perfectly. I make him 4/6 on rather than Ricky and would be very suprised to see the public desert their man after backing him all the way to the final.
Fist I think zaynars 6-1 was based on the assumption that Celestial halo and binny would show similar form to that seen in last years CH. Which is exactly what they have shown. The division is open for a horse to come take the initiative and start actually laying down performances and form rather than just posing questions and excuses. Although I enjoy your posts fist they often read bloody mindedly in favour of your preferred animal. You love binocular, I get it I really do. The 2m division is wide open for a newcomer and that animal may well be zaynar.
Useful comments from all, thanks once again. I can’t stand another day of tv tor, I will go crazy. That being said if it’s anything like gold cup day I know exactly what you mean!
Himself, shame on you.
Seriously though Kauto owes me nothing. It’s rare to find a horse with such heart and ability that the layers find a reason to take on so frequently. Avoid aintree and this fella will pay for Xmas every year! That being said it’s IC EW for the gold cup this year.
Thanks again to all the posters, it will probably save me a day in traffic.
Thx a lot Crizzy i’ll be coming from Bristol. Its obviously a busy day then and understandably so, Ill make sure we leave in good time to sit in traffic…!
Racing demon will be ready for this race, it’s Henrietta Knights bread and butter. Carrying 11st against this field it’s thumping good value at 6/1. Tidal bay is entitled to run well but not for me at these prices, the horse has a habit of catching the eye while losing. Deep purple looks the danger but I can’t allow RD to go off without my money at 6/1, surely one of the best 6/1 shots you are likely to come accross.
Thats my feelings Bosranic. Twist’s ‘in’ days have occured around Sandown and if he can do himself justice here He will certainly be the one to beat. Well chief has shown no level of form yet this season to win this and as we all know Big Zeb cant be relied upon to handle these fences. If twist can run something like his best Big Zeb will need more than a clear round to beat him anyway. Forpady represents the danger if twist doesnt settle into the race but this is certainly one to watch, not to punt on.
