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"BeauRanger" wrote: KK 2nd very impressive win at the course today … easily beat CH and Punjabi .. i was impressed
Zaynar won very very easily as well but does seem to do everything easily – Cape Tribulation came upsides today and for a few seconds it was a race – Zaynar just powered away.
One thing bugs me with him – in a fight how much would he find ? … might be one of those that the more races he has the less he finds in a fight – he look suspect for a few moments today almost as if he was half asleep
Look at a replay of the Triumph, I think you will find that he doesn’t throw the towel in in a finish
I think most of us agree Binny would have won the CH if ridden with more confidence re his stamina. (taking nothing away from 2nd and 3rd)
I wouldn’t be too worried about Celestial’s defeat. However, the fact he was beaten and there are so many talented yet unpredictable youngsters does put me off.
At this stage, I am still E/W with Binny at 5/1. He may drift a bit more before his next run. After his next run I can see him being made favourite again.
If either Binny or CHalo disappoint in their next runs I would be VERY worried for their chances come March (bar a valid reason such as an injury etc).
Zip
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You can add 10lbs to his performances between A and B so why should he do anything different with Celestial Halo?
Why would Henderson not be doing exactly the same with Zaynar? Seems people would rather make excuses for losers than laud the impressive winners when it suits them.
Come on fella – what’s it going to take for someone round here to say: "Well that was bloody disappointing!"
Regardless of how far away March is, CH had the benefit of a good blow and that wasn’t in the script. All of a sudden all the main races leading up to Cheltenham mean absolutely nothing!
I think with Zaynar it’s very much a case of strike while the iron is hot. I doubt if he’s gone any higher in the pecking order with Nicky Henderson and he knows both Binocular and Punjabi are a good few pounds ahead of him. He’s done nothing to justify him being CH fav and after Xmas the betting will be turned on it’s head.
Let’s look at Celestial Halo another way and say he was spot on. The differences between today and last years CH aren’t a lot. If you take the two races side by side from the top of the hill. Ruby is riding in both races like a man possessed trying to get every ounce out of CH and make his stamina count. If you took the others out of the picture you would swear it was the same race. The difference was Pipes horse didn’t even want to be in the race they weren’t going at Champion Hurdle pace so CH becomes less affective.
I couldn’t even begin to imagine Khyber King cruising along like he was today in a Champion Hurdle nor can I see Medermit getting within 15 lengths of whatever wins it so like the bookies I’ll file this one in the bin where it belongs.
Occasionally you get horses like Istabraq that can do it all and still win a Champion Hurdle wheras others will be in and out all season. Punjabi was beaten in his pre Chelt trial, Katchit ran stinkers all year up until the Kingwell and left all the other form way behind on Champion Hurdle day.
I just laugh when people say Binocular is finished or isn’t good enough based on one race. The horse wasn’t himself for days after the Newcastle race and definitely had something on him. I don’t know what will take him on at Kempton and care even less as I know why Nicky wants to run him there….even if he has to struggle to win it won’t matter as it’s way too sharp for him and he won’t be the magical 110% fit. It’s all about March with him and even if he’s 25/1 and looks to have no chance I’ll still back him off the boards. No matter what the bookies say he’s still Nicky’s number one hope for the race.
Today just confirms the feeling that last years champion hurdle was a very average affair.
That feeling took hold 10 seconds before Punjabi crossed the line……….
Khymber Kim was impressive today but it would surprise me greatly if he was classy enough to be in the shake up come March. Then again, I probably said the same thing about Punjabi last year.
Zaynar is favourite by default more than anything else. I don’t really know what to make of his run today. I liked the horse at Newbury last year and at Ascot on his reappearance but he made hard work of it today and you’d have to question whether he’ll be quick enough. He reminds me a bit of Brave Inca – tough but lazy and not always foot perfect at his obstacles. I get the impression that the better class of race he runs in, the better he’ll run. They certainly haven’t got the to the bottom of him yet.
Anyone know what Henderson’s plans are for his hurdlers now? I’d love to see Zaynar come over to Leopardstown and take HF and Solwhit on in the Irish Champion Hurdle. I suspect that’s a race JP might like to run Binocular in though.
Zaynar being accused of making hard work of things has been thrown at him right through his jumps career, (the probable reason Walkon went off fav in the Triumph.) but he has shown how much of a fighter he is and its going to take something special to beat him imo at Cheltenham come March, who ever can beat him will be the Champion Hurdler, he just has everything a jumps horse should have imo, he just needs to brush off his laziness which has defintely been worked on by Nicky Henderson.
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Imo, it is just plain daft to take yesterday’s form literally. Even after the Greatwood Khyber Kim’s trainer’s best hope was a ‘weak’ Fighting Fifth and Medermit was set to go chasing, so to believe they’ve both morphed into serious Champion Hurdle candidates in the space of a month stretches credibility somewhat, certainly beyond my belief.
Just my view, but it appears they went of too fast, with Ashkazar setting a real rattle and CH chasing him right from the start, before taking it up – and forcing it further – over half a mile from home. He’d already run his race before the final climb, and it’s noticeable that none close to the pace got anywhere near him, with 1st and 3rd coming from way off it.
To suggest CH didn’t stay in the light of that (and bearing in mind his overall record – flat and jumps) is just plain wrong imo, and I’ll lay anyone a decent bet that, come the Champion Hurdle, neither of yesterday’s other 2 principals will see where Celestial Halo went.I still don’t think Nicholls and Walsh have Celestial Halo’s tactics right. They keep making a lot of use of him and all this has come from last year when everyone got it into their heads that they had to take the sting out of Binocular’s finish. I think it cost celestial Halo last years Champion Hurdle as he never got a break in that race and unless they have a re-think they could give him no chance in 2010’s renewal.
The fastest part of a race is the early on rather than the last couple of furlongs (particularly at the festival) and Celestial Halo is always quick enough to go any pace the horse is far from short of speed. Look at him round Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance. Wincanton is a much sharper track than Cheltenham and he went round round there so quickly that Ruby claimed he "seemed to have more speed than last year". Thats because it was more of a speed test. It was good to firmish ground as well.
I’m not saying hold Celestial Halo up out the back but drop him in and give him a chance to really finish his races up the hill instead of trying to hang on, trust his speed a bit more.
Henderson now thinks Binocular will get further and the evidence of his Champion Hurdle run backs that up. It looks to me that people have called this all wrong – Binocular speed vs Celestial Halo stamina – it now looks more the other way round. Yes Binocular beat Celestial Halo at Ascot last year but there was plenty of cut and Celestial Halo was there to be shot at again and yes Binocular beat Celestial Halo at Aintree the year before but Celestial halo has never run well round Aintree anytime he’s tried.
I think it may well be time for Nicholls and Walsh to have a tactical rethink!
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Again just my view, but it’s a misapprehension to assume Binocular ‘stays’.
In last year’s CH, he showed his customary turn of foot to move into contention around 2 out, but was running on fumes when it came to the final climb and, despite the camera angle make it appear otherwise, he made little, if any, ground up on CH from the final hurdle, only his class keeping in him contention.
Though he’s reported to have grown and strengthened since, (as is Celestial Halo), given all of his form (again flat and jumps), i’d be surprised if he stayed much further.
Both horses (imo), though top class 2 milers, remain vulnerable to a horse with a better turn of foot – just as they were last year.- Total Posts 17716
Zaynar being accused of making hard work of things has been thrown at him right through his jumps career, (the probable reason Walkon went off fav in the Triumph.) but he has shown how much of a fighter he is and its going to take something special to beat him imo at Cheltenham come March, who ever can beat him will be the Champion Hurdler, he just has everything a jumps horse should have imo, he just needs to brush off his laziness which has defintely been worked on by Nicky Henderson.
Well Red he’s going to have to be one very very special horse. You are forgetting one very important thing.
He’s a 5 year old
Persian War Night Nurse and See You Then did it but they were 3 exceptional horses.You may or may not think much of Katchit who also won it at 5 but he was a hullava 4 year old who Triumph Hurdle victory was different class to Zaynar scraping home.
Binocular on the other hand attempted the near impossible for a 4 year by going for the Supreme against his trainers wishes then last season all but won the Champion Hurdle itself as a 5 year old. Her has already proved himself to be a top class animal
Binocular has gained plenty of experience against the best and with that other year on his back will be a far better horse this year than he was last. Zaynar has yet to take on a top class hurdler he’s not yet 5. He wins a crap race at 1/5, he’s got 17lbs in hand and the world goes WOW! when he wins?
Before these would be trials it was all Hurricane Fly! The best novice seen for years was the cry!!! now all of a sudden he doesn’t exist a horse wins 2 moderate races and he going to win the Champion Hurdle and kick Hurricane Fly and Binocular into touch.
My message to all who believe this horse will win the Champion Hurdle and backed him is simple. This is not Fantasia it’s the real world and when Binocular and Hurricane Fly both p*ss up over Xmas you’ll be wishing you had kept your money and bought some Xmas pud and mistletoe with it
Dunno, Fist.
Zaynar’s Triumph winning form was better than Katchit’s (imo), and it has been franked by just about every horse to come out of the race. I think we probably had an exceptional crop of juveniles last season, and it is foolish to write off Zaynar at this stage.
Whether he deserves to be fave is another thing, but it has to be said that he is the only one of the principals not to have disappointed so far this season. Counter that, of course, by pointing out he hasn’t even run over 2m as yet, and they probably should be betting 5/1 the field.
The Champion Hurdle market wasn’t a place for getting involved prior to last weekend, and it remains a place to avoid now……….at least until we find out a little bit more about Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Solwhit over Xmas.
It was disappointing seeing Zaynar scare off all challengers but at Ascot he did beat former Champion Hurdler Katchit and even so if Katchit seems to have gone on a downgrade Katchit was getting 4lbs from Zaynar and was still crushed 25l to Binocular’s 17l of Katchit who was getting the weight.
I like Binocular but I wouldnt be discounting Zaynar just cause he faced no one yesterday, and I know there is a trend of 5 year olds not winning, but there is evidence that they are getting much closer now.
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Coincidence perhaps but when you think Master Minded you could have a point.
As fas as comparing Triumphs Grassy you don’t get much better than beating a future Champion Hurdler twice. Loads of winners have come out of both races but that’s only to be expected from those that run in Grade 1 races at the festival. The fact is Katchit was brilliant at both Cheltenham and Aintree and was immediately touted as a Chamion Hurdle horse.
Zaynor on the other hand was workmanlike and virtually no one gave the Champion Hurdle a thought and he was an unconsidered 25/1 shot after his win. He was still well into double figures in mid November then Hurricane Fly and Binny flopped…his price isn’t because of what he has done it’s because of what others have not.
The thing is, if and when that changes, say HF and Binny both win their next race then Zaynar will no longer be fav but it gives the bookies room to keep him at silly price.
If both principals had won and Zaynar ran where he has he would be a 10-12/1 shot IMO now he’ll be a 6/1 shot at best and terrible value.
Fist I think zaynars 6-1 was based on the assumption that Celestial halo and binny would show similar form to that seen in last years CH. Which is exactly what they have shown. The division is open for a horse to come take the initiative and start actually laying down performances and form rather than just posing questions and excuses. Although I enjoy your posts fist they often read bloody mindedly in favour of your preferred animal. You love binocular, I get it I really do. The 2m division is wide open for a newcomer and that animal may well be zaynar.
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Fist I think zaynars 6-1 was based on the assumption that Celestial halo and binny would show similar form to that seen in last years CH. Which is exactly what they have shown. The division is open for a horse to come take the initiative and start actually laying down performances and form rather than just posing questions and excuses. Although I enjoy your posts fist they often read bloody mindedly in favour of your preferred animal. You love binocular, I get it I really do. The 2m division is wide open for a newcomer and that animal may well be zaynar.
Sorry you have lost me. "Binocular has shown similar form to that seen in last years Champion Hurdle?" your pulling my chain….or have you been down at Lambourn this week spying? I hear he’s back in work.
He ran the worst race of his life at Newcastle…….all I can say is if Celestial Halo showed his best form at Cheltenham the other day the Khyber King is the biggest certainty in the races history as he cantered all over the top of him…..the only problem with that is Ruby reckons he ran a poor race and was left scratching his head at why.
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