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Weren’t the first two drawn 5 and 2 last year?
And it just so happened to be a race run well below the average tempo of a Melbourne Cup.
Which made it impossible for Mount Athos to make up the ground on Green Moon, Fiorente or Jakkalberry — despite nearly breaking the speedometer he came home that fast.
She is guaranteed a start.
I don’t know of filly and mare allowances but she has stolen home base with that weight.
All that gets in her way, I think, is the barrier. Anything inside 7 or 8 will hurt. Prefer her to be drawn wide and remain traffic-free rather than try to weave through and rely on pure turn-of-foot.
I wrote a blog last week on the tell-tale signs that Verema is without doubt, the one to beat next week.
After she won the Prix Kergorlay, I was certain that she would make a Hong Kong Vase contender. The Aga Khan has run three fillies / mares in the race to run first, second and fourth.
So, nominating the Melbourne Cup came as a huge surprise. But then the stats of Melbourne Cup horses in the Hong Kong Vase are as strong as Aga Khan female horses in the Vase. Dunaden and Red Cadeaux have won the last two Vases; Americain ran third and Purple Moon came awfully close to denying Doctor Dino.
Join the dots and on 53 kg you have the most likely winner.
I dropped out of school at age 16; I lived for racing back then, so naturally I wanted to make a living out of it.
Six years later I realised that despite my passion for racing, work is work. The fun of being involved in what you love ran out quickly — there was no joy to be had. I was a form analyst but all that meant was analysing numbers and statistics on a computer screen all day. And when I took up journalism, all that meant was forming words on paper.
So, I resigned to take up study last year and for 9 months did not bat an eyelid at a single result. Not even Black Caviar at Royal Ascot would lift my spirits. In terms of passion, going from a full tank to drained empty spooked me enormously.
Things have changed since but I will forever keep work and play separate from each other.
The problem now is I have experience that is central to the racing industry and therefore am struggling to find work in other areas. Experiential learning in full flight.
Getting a blank white screen on ATR but their feature videos load albeit at a crawl.
I recall an air of doubt surrounding New Approach’s ability to go 12 furlong and indeed, he proved to be a 10 furlong horse. For that reason I steered clear of him but class ultimately won over.
This year’s renewal looks weaker than 2008 and try as I might, there is no way around Dawn Approach cementing his place as the stand-out top pick.
He will be too fast for them.
Military Attack a sublime winner. My thoughts on the run have been shared via my blog.
Did anyone else feel a little uneasy over Joao Moreira’s riding tactics aboard Super Easy entering the straight?
All things point to this three-year-old crop being below average. In the case of Orb he looked to be disadvantaged by the small field and lack of pace. To me he’s all stamina, which is a shame because if he won here he would have gone mightily close in the Belmont.
Within the space of two months Australian racing has lost the Cox Plate 1-2-3 and Black Caviar to retirement; its hopes for high-class Spring Racing rest with It’s A Dundeel and a filly nobody has seen for over 12 months.
Times of suffering in the short future I suspect.
How can you possibly say that, you might as well say Toronado beat nothing in the Craven apart from his stable companion and a horse recovering from a leg injury.
But he practically did beat nothing in the Craven, right?
I tip my hat to your fearless pursuit to see DA beat as long as you take the fall if he hoses up on the day
I don’t recall Henrythenavigator receiving widespread attention either and he went around at 12-1.
You haven’t mentioned George Vancouver and neither it seems has anyone. How come? I know the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is chump change compared to other Guineas trials but he won it and won it very easily I thought – and he wasn’t merely beating up on States-based hacks either.
If fast ground materialises on the day I think 16-1 is way too big.
I was only joking. Nobody will have a problem distinguishing between us as we have different avatars. I can also blame all my piss posts on you as an added bonus !
Not to worry Mr Wolf – I have found my old username!
Which means the young, fire-brand Aussie who used to annoy a few of you is back – this time (hopefully) with added maturity and tolerance.
Carry on.
Okay, I have found my old moniker!
The predicted rating I give each runner is based on their past form. I assign a rating with their career peak as the benchmark, working back based on their current level of performance.
I don’t know how it could be confusing but then again I have never been a staunch numbers and ratings man in the past.
If it is far too simplistic to turn the ratings into prices then leave it be – I can continue on my merry way!
Joyeux jour de la Bastille! Or similar.
Beheshtam seduced me last year after his impressive late rally in the Jockey Club. Eventually it was deduced that he was superior on soft ground – a stark contrast to the Cape Cross half-brother competing today, who by all reports is much pacier.
No bet, although I will declare that the Arc winner is among this field.
He needs return to Germany for Group 1 success, where the tracks are spacious and fields in the 1m4f race are less dependant on speed over stamina.
In saying that, the time on his Group 1 clock reads five to midnight and I would not want to underestimate the German-bred stayers either.
There is no conceivable reason for Sri Putra to have bombed by so much in the Brigadier Gerard, especially in light of his impressive Earl Of Sefton win. If his mind was on the job I’d have no doubt he would have challenged Stotsfold, Tazeez and Glass Harmonium for the placings. That would have put him in striking distance of the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes and must give him a roaring good chance here against a field with very little separating them.
40/1 is heavenly.
Sri Putra, Chabal and Viscount Nelson.
