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With the debut of the highly regarded MARS today i thought i start a thread for derby next year.I have took some of the 20/1 on
MARS to win derby though some doubt if he stay.Any 2yos you see in market for derby next year
And any unraced horses you see being derby types for next year.
Some horses since last post have come out like these ones
BATTLE OF MARENGO
GALLIEO ROCK.Maybe too much stamina
EYE OF THE STORM
TELESCOPEany others you been impressed by.
And do you guys think Dawn Approach will get a 1m4 i say no but others on forum think he will.
Darren, Jim Bolger pretty much ruled out Dawn Approach as a Derby prospect when asked after his last win. The Guineas was said to be very much his target.
Telescope looks a good prospect, he was a bit unlucky because his jockey had his whip knocked out of his hand close home and could definitely have given the runner up another stroke before the line. Strangely enough jockey Rab Havlin stated that he thought the winner Snow King, might be better dropping to 6f, while I anticipate that Telescope will tackle a mile before the season is over.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One I quite like is Excess Knowledge in training with John Gosden.
Well bred, By Monsun out of a Dansili mare. Born 15th March.
Raced twice, won a maiden 1st time out, came 2nd in a listed race 2nd time out.
Has a Derby entry and entries for the Royal Lodge and the Racing Post Trophy.
There is currently no antepost price given on Betfair or oddschecker for this colt.
I also quite like Flying the Flag but he might turn out to be more a 10f 3 year old and not really get 12f.
He is entered for all the 7-8f 2 year old G1 and G2 races in England and Ireland to come this Autumn and might race this weekend so it will be interesting to see what he does.
Currently 69/1 antepost on Betfair.
One I quite like is Excess Knowledge in training with John Gosden.
Well bred, By Monsun out of a Dansili mare. Born 15th March.
Raced twice, won a maiden 1st time out, came 2nd in a listed race 2nd time out.
Has a Derby entry and entries for the Royal Lodge and the Racing Post Trophy.
I prefer the look of John Gosden’s Ashdan ahead of Excess Knowledge and I think he runs tomorrow at Doncaster. He is by Dansili out of a Rainbow Quest mare and is entered in the Racing Post trophy. Tomorrow’s race isn’t anything special and if he is to be a contender he would need to show us something in this. Seems to be about 33/1 for the Derby and I saw that Timeform has tipped him for tomorrows race, stating that he should go on to better things afterwards.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Will KINGSBARN win derby or is there other horses you like i chuck in a darkhorse from left field
PENGALVI PAVILLION
Won well on debut will probaly head to big 2yo race at Saint cloud if he wins may end up at godolphin or stay where he is.
Jim Bolger must have a great white hope someplace in his barn.At the end of the season he produces Loc Garman to win at Navan and the following week in France.He sure hates the grass to grow under their hoofs.This is a Teofilo colt who outstayed a Ballydoyle hot shot at Navan over a mile in heavy going.Likewise in France he outslogged the field in the mud.He has now been put away for the winter and coud be anything.
A French colt trained by Andre Fabre called Ocovango is racing at 1.30 at St Cloud today. Will he be a good Derby proposition or will the "bubble burst" ?
A French colt trained by Andre Fabre called Ocovango is racing at 1.30 at St Cloud today. Will he be a good Derby proposition or will the "bubble burst" ?
After winning today his odds have been cut to 20/1
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/repo … -for-derby
Ocovango is as short as 20/1 for the Investec Derby after winning the Listed Prix Francois Mathet at Saint-Cloud on Sunday.
A French colt trained by Andre Fabre called Ocovango is racing at 1.30 at St Cloud today. Will he be a good Derby proposition or will the "bubble burst" ?
After winning today his odds have been cut to 20/1
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/repo … -for-derby
Ocovango is as short as 20/1 for the Investec Derby after winning the Listed Prix Francois Mathet at Saint-Cloud on Sunday.
French Horses and Epsom go together like milk and petrol. I would doubt he will turn up for the race and 20/1 has no appeal at all. Outside of O’Brien’s flotilla of potential candidates and Telescope, realistic contenders seem a bit thin on the ground this year. I haven’t had a bet on the race yet and will probably wait until I see something that has question marks on class grounds but who will be more or less certain to get the trip. Distance can be a great leveller and many punters seem to have a childlike faith that Guineas winners can be held up and find magic stamina reserves in The Derby. History says it isn’t so but that won’t stop the rush to the bookies as they flash past the line in the 2000 Guineas. Lemming City here they come.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ocovango won easily at St Cloud yesterday.
Next stop, I would imagine, will be the G3 Prix Greffulhe in early May and if he shows the same improvement as Pour Moi did, then the Derby could be where he is heading.
many punters seem to have a childlike faith that Guineas winners can be held up and find magic stamina reserves in The Derby. History says it isn’t so but that won’t stop the rush to the bookies as they flash past the line in the 2000 Guineas. Lemming City here they come.
I always thought the Guineas was supposed to be the best Derby trial. Certainly hasn’t been a bad guide in recent years with 3 of the last 5 Epsom winners having either won or almost won the Guineas.
Much may depend this year on whether Kingbarns or Mars line up at Newmarket.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Pour Moi was the first French Trained winner since Empery in 1976 and unless we are going to subscribe to the old "You wait 30 odd years for a bus to come along and then get two in a couple of years" theory, then it has to be a worrying stat. Pour Moi never ran again and was intended to have a break before suffering an injury, begging the question as to whether Epsom took something out of him.
Ocovango could be anything but it’s a long way from winning a listed race to lining up at Epsom, particularly with the option to stay at home for the now "bairns distance" version. I just feel 20/1 is a typical overreaction from the bookies who like to shorten everything that passes the requisite amount of legs requirement and perhaps got half a grin out of the trainer after a cold morning gallop during "That time of the month"
Regarding the "2000 Guineas being the best trial" maxim, I was of the belief that it was one of racing’s old chestnuts. I was referring to winners of the race in particular and if the last five years has seen a tendency for throwing up Derby winners from runners who ran well in the race, it has done little to affect the overall poor record of 2000 Guineas winners doubling up at Epsom. Camelot won what I consider to be one of the worst renewals last year and I think he would probably failed in numerous incarnations of the race over the years. I reckon Nashwan would have crucified him.
I see Dawn Approach is already as low as 7/1 for Epsom and I think that is lamentable value given the stamina question and whether he will act at the track. I don’t like the ldea of a horse with a tendency to hit a flat spot trying to make up ground at Epsom but that won’t stop a slashing of odds across the board should the new Pegasus swoop at Newmarket. I’d rather have a go at some cuddy who hasn’t been gracing the cover of Vogue but who just might be highly likely to run into a place on the day and be able to squeeze a few drams out of a ticket with 25/1 on it.
Can’t wait for some of the contenders to start appearing and then processing tickets either into the bin or folding them lovingly under the lucky rabbit ornament. (Lucky owl and lucky hedgehog were sacked last summer)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<b>Telescope</b> is joint 5/1 Fav with ladbrokes having been 7/1 a week ago do you reckon its kingsbarns set back or have the newmarket gallop watchers seen something?
Telescope was touted as a Derby prospect before he ever set foot on a racecourse. He finished a somewhat unlucky second to John Gosden’s Snow King (rider lost whip) before opening his account at the second time of asking. Snow King did little for the form with an abortive attempt in one of the sideshow races at The Breeders Cup meeting, looking all at sea on the track and ground. Telescope went on to do the business next time up and a couple of winners have come out of the race, however, Space Ship, also trained by Gosden, who finished 4th in that race was beaten in a Doncaster maiden and is rated 78. I have seen that At The Races ante post guy Gary Nutting tipped up Telescope at 10/1 for the Derby and it is not hard to see his reasoning process, with Stoute having been so adept with horses of a similar profile going on to triumph at Epsom via the Dante. Add in Kingsbarns setback, Dawn Approach’s stamina questions, Mars’ all weather win hypefest and you get good reasons to opt for Telescope. However, Stoute has had a modest record overall, and an absence of group 1 success the past couple of seasons and you will be backing a horse who has only won a 4 grand maiden race so far. I sense this might be Stoute’s make or break horse this season but at 5/1 he represents no value, with Kingsbarns and proven Group 1 form still in the mix for now with several other potential candidates from the same yard lurking in the background. Will Jim (Hokey Cokey) Bolger do another New Approach and slip the son in the race after declaring him a non-candidate earlier?
I am making no move on the race for now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Last week I seen Dawn Approach at 12/1 which I think was with Hills, that 7/1 you are quoting I’d love to be on.
We can look for Derby types all we want now which I think Battle Of Marengo is the only one, but its going to take a horse of some class to take down Dawn Approach, a derby type has been thrown out the window really, you have to look for a horse that has to be up there ability wise with Dawn Approach.
Looks to be zero.
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