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Bolger did not KNOW Dawn Approach would "NOT STAY the Derby distance" H. From what I knew about the horse beforehand I considered it a 60/40 chance. Fair enough I might have over-estimated it, you might have thought he had less or even far less chance of staying. But to call it a "fact" (ie 100% known) is non-factual.
Ginge, again, you are misinterpreting what I said.
I said Bolger knew it wouldn’t stay based on the evidence of Dawn Approach being a CC type. The FACT ( in this case ) being that he knew his horse’s CC type beforehand – and therefore, being a keen advocate of the science, he must have taken this FACT on board – the fact which said that of all the CC types tested NONE had ever won over 1 mile 3 furlongs – and only 5% of all tested had won beyond a mile.
Stating anything about a horse based on a single gene is utter baloney and laughed at by serious genetic scientists. You would have to test a huge population to make any statistical sense of racing results and entries, let alone explain them with any rigour. The meat industry, for example, research genes in producing maximum muscle and about 3400 genes are directly involved in that.
It is still not known whether DA would have stayed or not – he lost any chance soon after the start when he was barged sideways. Under 30% of modern 2000G winners have won the double and the same "will he wont he stay debate" has been held for every one. Timeform believed he had 80% chance of staying – most more knowlegable bookmakers would guess around 15% but any bet at below 4/1 was bad value and that is the main issue for punters.
Do any of you "DOES NOT STAY 1.5M FACT" merchants fancy laying me 999/1 for The Arc?
I had a look at the Ante-Post betting for The Arc and I don’t see him quoted at all and that is with the odds going right up to 100/1 Sea Moon. Based on his Derby effort I would think only a fool would try him again over the same trip.
There is about as much chance of Dawn Approach winning the Arc as there is of the late Jimmy Saville becoming the new face of Werther’s Originals.
ps My hat was intact after the Derby
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes; it was a sad sight on Saturday and I agree wholeheartedly with your sentiments, Triptych. He really is a wonderful horse and I’d hate him to be remembered for one bad race. Would love to know what Bolger really thinks about it all. Must say that I’ve heard the term ‘he’s so relaxed in his races he’ll see out the trip’ so many time
but can’t say that they ever do. By the way, did anyone see the programme about ‘Buck’ the real horse whisperer on BBC4 last night? The reason I mention it is that I was thinking of New Approach as I watched it, but he also came down so heavy on people that ruin horses with ignorance; hope that hasn’t happened with Dawn Approach.
Thanks for that Moe I’m going to catch that programme on BBC iPlayer completely missed it.
Sad to hear that Bolger thinks that Dawn Approach caught a blow to the ribs as he exited the stalls and that it may leave him with some mental scars, hoping that isn’t going to be the case. The good news is that next day he has eaten up and is well in himself and that bodes well for him. Now it’s just a matter of time and patience meaning we won’t see him at Royal Ascot and he may just make the Sussex Stakes, I hope so.
Looking at the Derby over and over again and especially at how Dawn Approach came out of the stalls, noticed that he was housed in an end block stall and perhaps it was a bit unstable in so much that with the force of the stalls opening it could have swung back on him quite forceably and felt like a huge kick in the ribs. Originally I thought he had been lit up by the two horses that crossed his path just after the start but looking hard at the video there is a split second before that event when he appears to become unbalanced and then the awful head throwing starts and that’s it, race over.
Hopefully, Dawn Approach will put this behind him and come back better than he was before.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I don’t know if this is relevant or not but in Arcle’s first Gold Cup Pat could barely restrain him for the first mile and a half.When he finally let him go the race was over for Mill House. Watch it on You Tube.Google Arcle.
It will be interesting to see how the form of this race fares in the coming months, with a proven stayer winning the contest and two stoutly-bred colts filling the minor places. What makes it all the more noticeable is that they managed to do so despite the rather tactical pace.
Ruler Of The World quickened very well and it should be noted that his pedigree (half-brother to Duke Of Marmalade) suggests that he should not be inconvenienced by a drop back to ten furlongs and will almost certainly develop into an even smarter 4YO.
He may have secured two victories over twelve furlongs in his first three starts but, as we witnessed on Saturday, he’s not short of speed and will no doubt be given an opportunity against top class opposition over ten furlongs.
Libertarian will be much more at home on a flatter track and, along with Galileo Rock, will surely head to Doncaster for the St Leger – both are bred to appreciate even further.
Of those behind, both Battle Of Marengo and Chopin did enough to suggest that another seat at the top table is worth reserving, albeit over shorter after both appeared to flatten out inside the final two furlongs, but Ocovango and Mars are arguably the two to take out of the race.
Ocovango travelled like the best colt in the field. He was supremely balanced around the idiosyncratic track and gave the impression that he does not require soft ground to compete at the highest level. Andre Fabre stated that his 2011 winner, Pour Moi, possessed an electric turn of foot, while his 2013 candidate was more of a galloper. It was at that point where Ocovango was building momentum that Ruler Of The World drifted into his path, forcing him to start his run all over again. A horse with a turn of foot can get himself out of trouble to a certain extent, but a galloper requires time to hit top gear and Ocovango could not have been hampered at a more inappropriate time.
Mars has now finished a creditable sixth in two classics. The easy winner of a Dundalk maiden as a 2YO, Mars has continued his education at the highest level over eight and twelve furlongs.
There are any number of talking horses coming out of Ballydoyle every year, but only a handful create the sort of vibes that reverberate around the racing community and Mars was one such juvenile. To be thrown into two classics on only his second and third start, respectively, demonstrates the high esteem he is held.
He was asked to ‘race’ for the first time at Newmarket and his street IQ went up a few points at Epsom where he encountered plenty of trouble, but gave as good as he got and finished stronger that anything.
He is entered in Group 1 races from eight to twelve furlongs, and it could well be that a truly run ten furlongs will prove his ideal trip. He demonstrated enough speed and stamina to come within two lengths of being placed in both premier colt classics and, given the proximity of the field at Epsom, he could easily emerge the best middle-distance colt from Ballydoyle this season granted more experience and luck. The King Edward VII at Royal Ascot looks a good opportunity for him.
Longterm, with his professional attitude, an AW victory to his name and a solid blend of speed and stamina, Mars could be seen as an ideal candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at the end of the season.
Not "misinterpreting" at all H, just judging on what was written.
"As Mr Jim Bolger is well aware, Ginge, CC types DO NOT STAY The Derby distance. Fact"!
What you say you meant is totally different to what’s written.
Not that it makes any difference, if you are saying it is a fact that CC types do not stay the Derby distance – then you are saying it was
known
Dawn Approach would not stay (ie fact).
Ok, I’ll go with misunderstanding rather than misinterpreting then, if that helps.
Ergo.. Bolger, as the horse’s part owner, trainer… and fully paid up member/advocate of the Equinome program, which he fully supports and endorses, MUST ( yes, must Ginge, MUST !
) have known that Dawn Approach ( being of CC type ) would not stay, given the overwhelming evidence at his disposal. Get it now ? No ? Well, keep at it until you do.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I refer you to the answer I gave earlier H.
Well, if that’s the best you can offer, Ginge, we’ll move on…and leave it there.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
According to The Weekender the first 3 Derby furlongs were run 4 seconds slower than the first 3 of the 2000 Gns. Given that at least 1 furlong at Epsom is a fairly steep climb, that the ground was easier there than at Newmarket and the trip was 50% longer, I wouldn’t have thought it could be deemed a serious disadvantage to DA from a pace viewpoint.
According to The Weekender the first 3 Derby furlongs were run 4 seconds slower than the first 3 of the 2000 Gns. Given that at least 1 furlong at Epsom is a fairly steep climb, that the ground was easier there than at Newmarket and the trip was 50% longer, I wouldn’t have thought it could be deemed a serious disadvantage to DA from a pace viewpoint.
It was not the first furlong or so that was particularly slow Joe. It was fair early but slowed. Time of the race gives a Timeform Time Figure of 27 lbs (almost 2 stones!) less than his actual Timeform form rating. That indicates just how much it slowed.
Value Is EverythingNot "misinterpreting" at all H, just judging on what was written.
"As Mr Jim Bolger is well aware, Ginge, CC types DO NOT STAY The Derby distance. Fact"!
What you say you meant is totally different to what’s written.
Not that it makes any difference, if you are saying it is a fact that CC types do not stay the Derby distance – then you are saying it was
known
Dawn Approach would not stay (ie fact).
Ok, I’ll go with misunderstanding rather than misinterpreting then, if that helps.
Ergo.. Bolger, as the horse’s part owner, trainer… and fully paid up member/advocate of the Equinome program, which he fully supports and endorses, MUST ( yes, must Ginge, MUST !
) have known that Dawn Approach ( being of CC type ) would not stay, given the overwhelming evidence at his disposal. Get it now ? No ? Well, keep at it until you do.
Well if you want a reply H…
When it comes to breeding, there is no such thing as "must" (no such thing as 100%). On breeding Ginger must have known he was wasting his time putting Red Rum over staying trips?
Sergeant Cecil, by sprinter King’s Signet, so everyone "must" have known he was not going to be a stayer? Value Is EverythingAccording to The Weekender the first 3 Derby furlongs were run 4 seconds slower than the first 3 of the 2000 Gns. Given that at least 1 furlong at Epsom is a fairly steep climb, that the ground was easier there than at Newmarket and the trip was 50% longer, I wouldn’t have thought it could be deemed a serious disadvantage to DA from a pace viewpoint.
It was not the first furlong or so that was particularly slow Joe. It was fair early but slowed. Time of the race gives a Timeform Time Figure of 27 lbs (almost 2 stones!) less than his actual Timeform form rating. That indicates just how much it slowed.
I’m far from a time expert Ginger, but those who are, in the press at least, consistently report the middle section as the slowest part of the race. Now I make that the section when DA led. It might be argued he’d wasted himself by then, but what I don’t accept is the widely held opinion that the early pace did for him. He was crazy spooked about something for certain, but I very much doubt the pace had anything to do with it.
Well if you want a reply H…
When it comes to breeding, there is no such thing as "must" (no such thing as 100%). On breeding Ginger must have known he was wasting his time putting Red Rum over staying trips?
Sergeant Cecil, by sprinter King’s Signet, so everyone "must" have known he was not going to be a stayer? Yes, I wanted a reply, Ginge, but not almost a day later and certainly not at stupid o’clock.
You just won’t admit defeat, will you ? Admitting you are wrong once in a while is not a shameful thing. Having the urge to have the last word is one thing Ginge, but showing a little humility can be a wonderful trait – even for you, old bean, and it may even work wonders for you.
Now, you obviously still haven’t grasped this equinome thing, so – a little gift. Peruse at your leisure, and take care not to let those those numbers and percentages cloud your thinking… again !
http://www.equinome.com/media_files/Int … uinome.pdf
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
You just won’t admit defeat, will you ? Admitting you are wrong once in a while is not a shameful thing. Having the urge to have the last word is one thing Ginge, but showing a little humility can be a wonderful trait – even for you, old bean, and it may even work wonders for you.
Talking about yourself again H.
I was going to leave it (see the first post on this page) but I was under the impression from your next post you wanted a reply.
Now you seem to wish I remained silent. Make up your mind.Value Is Everythingbut what I don’t accept is the widely held opinion that the early pace did for him. He was crazy spooked about something for certain, but I very much doubt the pace had anything to do with it.
Do you not think it is difficult for a horse to go from a strongly run Guineas mile to basically 1m6f pace on its very next start Joe?
Value Is EverythingTalking about yourself again H.
I was going to leave it (see the first post on this page) but I was under the impression from your next post you wanted a reply.
Now you seem to wish I remained silent. Make up your mind.I notice you have a little to say on the Equinome link I sent. Yes, Mr Bolger has more than a passing interest, does he not.
Ginge, I know it ill behoves you to concede on any point, let alone the better man ; your narcissistic traits won’t allow for that, but hey… I understand the situation. my youngest ( 23 yr old opinionated, headstrong, very clever daughter : Ist class University degree and all that
) like yourself, still treads that rather awkward path on the road to enlightenment – such are the foibles and vagaries of youth – false pride and all that. Ginge, maturity comes at a price.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
) have known that Dawn Approach ( being of CC type ) would not stay, given the overwhelming evidence at his disposal. Get it now ? 
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