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Level out the camber in the last furlong, change the distance to 10 furlongs and run it on a Wednesday 10 days later. Hey presto, more entrants, greater interest and a safer track
I think JOB is getting too big for some of these horses. Seemed to unbalance the horse there when they switched.
Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?
Doubt he is going to get much shorter. Ever thought it might rain on the day – 5/4 wouldn’t look so tasty then.
Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?
Doubt he is going to get much shorter. Ever thought it might rain on the day – 5/4 wouldn’t look so tasty then.
Thanks
Do you know if many will be in the irish 2000 guineas….or any other races?
Finding it a bit hard to look past DA at the moment ^^
Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?
Doubt he is going to get much shorter. Ever thought it might rain on the day – 5/4 wouldn’t look so tasty then.
That Stilvi is a very good point and one I’d been considering.
It’s due to rain on and off for the next week or so and who knows what the following week will be like. Regardless of the fact that like most people I see him as the likeliest winner, I wouldn’t be feeling too confident if I were clutching an even money voucher when come the day Epsom is riding slow, as it’ll surely put more emphasis on his stamina question marks.
That said I wouldn’t bet against him shortening further, as back in the day Entrepaneur who was a less convincing 2000 winner went off at an extremely miserly 4/6.
Lee
Is it the time to get money on DA? Will he keep shortening?
Doubt he is going to get much shorter. Ever thought it might rain on the day – 5/4 wouldn’t look so tasty then.
That Stilvi is a very good point and one I’d been considering.
It’s due to rain on and off for the next week or so and who knows what the following week will be like. Regardless of the fact that like most people I see him as the likeliest winner, I wouldn’t be feeling too confident if I were clutching an even money voucher when come the day Epsom is riding slow, as it’ll surely put more emphasis on his stamina question marks.
That said I wouldn’t bet against him shortening further, as back in the day Entrepaneur who was a less convincing 2000 winner went off at an extremely miserly 4/6.
Lee
I have reservations about Dawn Approach getting the trip. It is all very well saying that he relaxes and settles well but there comes a stage where even he must feel the extra half mile he will have to cover. It seems reasonable to assume he will be held up on the day and that he will look dangerous at some point. It will be a question of what happens over the last three furlongs of the race and whether he can quicken away as he did in the Guineas or if he has used up some of that energy already. If it does come up mud it would end up a slog and I can’t see that being his game at all.
With regards to his price, I can see him easily being odds on as long as the ground is good or faster. Punters in the main have little concept of value and wade in at any odds on the back of the hype machine. I can also see some of the more fancied ones not showing up on the day and some of the prominent ones in the betting right now look ripe for drifting on the day eg Telescope, Mars, Ocovango maybe even Battle Of Marengo assuming they all turn up.
I certainly won’t be backing Dawn Approach but he may well prove me wrong and reward those who took the 12/1 before the Guineas.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At this stage of the game the punters seem to be latching on to any horse that has four legs and a pulse. Ocovango in particular seems ridiculously short on what he has achieved in the mud in France. There was a big hoo-hah about What A Name based mainly on one run behind Olympic Glory, but she went flat on her bosoms at Newmarket.
Yes, the new ‘buzz horse’ appears to be Chopin even though connections themselves would have absolutely no idea of the relative merit of the horse. That easy win last time might be no better than winning a decent maiden over here. This is the perfect tool for the ‘trying to be clever’ merchants/guessers because it is impossible to say he can’t win. On a line through Park Reel it appears Ocovango has little, if anything in hand of Festive Cheer. The latter may be overpriced but only if you know which of O’Brien’s will be sacrificed for pacemaking duties.
Even questioning Dawn Approach’s stamina, having seen what he faces, you would think his sheer class is going to get him though the Epsom test, he’d be about a stone in front of everything else in the race, if a horse is going to beat him there gonna have to make up the distance when his turn of foot gets him out in front.
Cant see the Dante winner doing that, seems he would need at least the Leger distance to mount a challenge on Dawn Approach.
I’d rather back on the day with out the fav and it would be Battle of Marengo or Telescope to back for me with Libertarian being the danger to them, for all his inexperience at least his maiden form is rock solid, hacked up over Elkaayed who then went on to hack up himself just two days ago in what I thought was a fair hot maiden.
Battle Of Marengo, his trial got some stick especially by the Racing Post, don’t see how, for me he was the best trial winner by some distance, the 2nd horse would have probably won the Dante for me or would have been at least going toe to toe with Libertarian, and Battle Of Marengo beat him very casually I thought, yes he was made to work, but it was a long way from home he was working on him suggesting he is a lazy horse, furlong out O’Brien didn’t have to work that much on him just pushing him out.
Cant decide on which yet but cant see them out the 3, think the bookies have it right and usually do in the Derby. Would probably side with the Ballydoyle just over the experience issue.
The doubts are of DA staying the distance.So the argument for him staying has to challenge the doubts not by referring to his attitude but to his breeding.Jim took the mare home to Ireland from the USA. Did Bolger see something in the breeding to allay his fears? Can our American friend help here? Probably tied up with the Preakness.
can anyone recall a horse that was considered too slow beforehand by several commentators (not just one or two)turning that around and actually winning the race? You often hear this quote "if you’ve got one who’s sure to stay then he’s probably too slow to win a derby" but how true is that.
And what about non-stayers? Horses that were considered to be doubtful stayers?
Let’s look at the last twenty winners of the Derby to get some pointers.
1993 Commander in Chief
Didn’t make his debut till 3 years of age. Was highly regarded by the team and when often asked about the favourite Tenby, Henry Cecil was at pains to point out that he rated the Commander just as highly. Was sure to stay on pedigree and hacked up while Tenby disappointed.
1994 Erhaab.
Didn’t lack for speed winning twice over 7 as a two year old. Stayed on strongly in the Dante and repeated the dose on the big day (also the first derby winner i backed, hopefully not the last
) The race was notable for Jason Weaver setting the doubtful stayer Mister Baileys alight and going several lengths clear going around the home bend, but running out of puff.1995 Lammtarra
Out of a Nijinsky out of an Oaks winner in Snow Bride, you couldn’t ask for a better pedigree, was certain to stay. As it was he lived up to his famous parents, smashing the course record on his second start. Also gives hope to backers of Telescope, as it proved you didn’t need much experience to win the big race. The 2000 guineas winner Pennekamp disappointed, but it’s difficult to know for sure if he stayed or not, as he never raced again.
1996 Shaamit
By Mtoto, a high-class middle distance horse who won the King George, he was arguably however something of a mediocre Derby winner as he didnt achieve much after. Likely to stay on pedigree beforehand.
1997. Benny the dip
Showed good fighting skills to get the better of Silver Patriach, who won the Leger. Benny had also won the Dante and Sandown classic trials beforehand. Arguably Entrepreneur, the 2000 guineas winner, failed to get home on the big day.
1998 High-Rise
First Derby I saw in the flesh. The filly Cape Verdi was sent off favourite but was another guineas winner well beaten. High-rise was sure to stay having won the Lingfield Derby trial, but like Shaamit didn’t achieve much afterwards.
1999 Oath
Had won the Chester Dee stakes beforehand impressively. Dam was by Troy so good middle-distance pedigree. Dubai Milliennium was sent off favourite but patently failed to stay.
2000 Sinndar
Brilliant horse who was the first of many recent winners to come via the Derrinstown. Beat another fabulous middle-distance horse in Sakhee.
2001 Galileo
Certain to stay beforehand, being by the brilliant sire Sadler’s Wells, and his dam was Urban Sea, who also sired Sea the Stars.
Beat Golan into second place, a guineas winner, who went on to win the King George as a four year old.2002 High Chaparral
Another who was sired by Sadler’s Wells, out of a Darshaan mare, he also came via the Derrinstown route. Beat the Brilliant miler/10 furlong horse Hawk Wing by outstaying him, with the pair miles clear of the rest.
2003 Kris Kin
His Sire was by Roberto, his dam was by Rainbow Quest, so very good middle-distance pedigree. Came with a withering run in the straight to cut them down. Guineas winner Refuse to bend was sent off favourite, but finished well down the field and was never tried at further than 10 furlongs again.
2004 North Light
By Danehill, who was a sprinter but who’s progeny can get much further, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, he arguably had a perfect middle-distance pedigree with a mixture of speed and stamina. And it proved in the race itself as this magnificent looking beast (as are all of Ballymacoll’s) showed early pace to sit prominently, before kicking on in the straight and then outstaying a future Leger winner in Rule of Law.
2005 Motivator
First Derby winner for the brilliant Sire Montjeu. Had already shown an aptitude for staying by winning the Racing Post trophy as a two-year old, and then following up in the Dante. On the big day he blew them away. Disappointing career afterwards though.
2006 Sir Percy
Some stamina doubts beforehand, but got a great run up the rail. Performed poorly afterwards, and it was the third Dylan Thomas, who was to go on to much better things.
2007 Authorized
Very stout pedigree, and sure to stay on paper but had already shown plenty of speed as well. No surprise when he hacked up as clear favourite.
2008 New Approach
The sire of this year’s favourite, Dawn Approach, as I’ve stated there were doubts about him staying but he showed a brilliant turn of foot at the two furlong pole to get the better of Tartan Bearer.
2009 Sea the Stars
Another magnificent looking beast who oozed class. Definite doubts about him staying beforehand as he is by Cape Cross, a miler, but showed his effortless class in the race, getting the better of the O’Brien clan. One of the best Middle-distance horses of the last twenty or so years.
2010 Workforce
Another brilliant Derby winner. Yet again O’Brien threw plenty at the race and came up short. Jan Vermeer (remember him?) went off favourite, a fact that seems quite laughable in hindsight.
2011 Pour Moi
Another Derby with a multitude of O’Brien runners. Are we seeing a pattern here? When he’s got one or two he tends to win, when he throws a lot at it he hasn’t got anything. Pour Moi was yet another Derby winner for Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare, sure to stay on pedigree. This as a poor derby in any case and it is my view that if Frankel had ran in it, he would have won by half the length of the straight, whether he got the trip or not.
2012 Camelot
As if to prove the theory, he had far fewer runners this time and Camelot arguably beat a poor field. Another Montjeu colt, a great loss to the breeding game indeed…
Sorry if that was rather long!
But i’m a great believer in using history to divine what might happen in future.I think you can see from looking at those results that you are far more likely to win a derby with a horse that is considered too slow beforehand than one who is doubtful to stay.
The history of past derbies is littered with Guineas winners who were very well fancied found the extra distance beyond them. A bad omen for Dawn approach? Admittedly very few Guineas winners had his credentials.
Possibly not a bad omen as he’s stoutly bred on the sire side, and as has already been stated he may have so much in hand that it won’t really matter. But it is somewhat of a warning. Will he be able to show that burst of speed at the end of the race that his sire did? My guess is he probably will.
It’s interesting to note that O’Brien had a lot of success with Derrinstown winners in the past, which points towards Battle of Marengo, but that hasn’t been the case lately, which counts against him.
I think if he runs Battle of Marengo and maybe only one or two others that’s a tip in his favour, but if he runs five or six you can pretty much count him out, if past results are anything to go by.
If you could design the perfect derby horse, it would have been something like North Light, who had a cruising speed but also had great reserves of stamina. You need to be able to take a position at Epsom, very few winners come from miles behind and to my mind this counts against Libertarian, the Dante winner.
I hope it’s all clearer now
2006 when Sir Percy won he had 4 runners, one being Dylan Thomas, who wasn’t the main fancy on the day even though he went the Derrinstown route and was allowed to go off at 25/1, Horatio Nelson was considered the number 1 after a successful two year old career but died at Epsom that race sadly.
2009 he had a fair few runners but Fame And Glory would have been a worthy Derby winner anyway and was for me the most likely to finish highest for Ballydoyle and so it proved.
With Dawn Approach in he is going to throw runners in here, doesn’t mean Battle Of Marengo isn’t any good, pretty much confirmed today as the stable number 1 for the Derby by Joesph O’Brien, and by the looks of it, this years Derby needs as many O’Brien runners as it can get.
Good news for telescope fans:
Telescope catches the
eye in crucial workoutBY JAMES BURN 9:42AM 19 MAY 2013
TELESCOPE, whose participation in the Investec Derby was in doubt after he suffered leg injuries, impressed workwatchers when exercising on the Newmarket gallops on Sunday morning.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt, who runs in the colours of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, was due to make his seasonal reappearance in the Dante at York on Thursday.
However, he missed that engagement after grazing his legs when being loaded onto a horsebox.
He was taken out of the Derby betting by bookmakers, but his connections will be buoyed by his workout.Ridden by Kevin Bradshaw, Telescope was joined by an older-horse handicapper under Ryan Moore, who will partner the Galileo colt if he makes Epsom.
The pair galloped on the Limekilns with Telescope finishing well clear.
The Racing Post’s Newmarket correspondent David Milnes watched the action and tweeted: "Telescope looked impressive 30 lengths clear of older handicapper #Derby."
Stoute, reportedly happy with how things went, could give the three-year-old a racecourse gallop with a trip to Epsom for Breakfast With The Stars on Thursday an option.
Telescope is around the 8-1 mark for the Derby with a run.
The problem with pages and pages of analysis rests with the fact Epsom is a one-off. They have a handful of meetings a year and these days it is almost a certainty none of the runners with have course experience. Not even sure if the Blue Riband Trial still exists in some format? I suspect plenty of Derby winners have won despite the course rather than because of it. There is a huge amount of guesswork involved in deciding which horses will adapt best to what is a pretty unique challenge.
The problem with pages and pages of analysis rests with the fact Epsom is a one-off. They have a handful of meetings a year and these days it is almost a certainty none of the runners with have course experience. Not even sure if the Blue Riband Trial still exists in some format? I suspect plenty of Derby winners have won despite the course rather than because of it. There is a huge amount of guesswork involved in deciding which horses will adapt best to what is a pretty unique challenge.
True, there is some guesswork, but the point I was trying to make was that history can also point you towards the winner. Not every year. But sometimes. Without that we really are shooting in the dark. Most people punting on the Derby will just look for the best horse. Past results suggest that is a risky strategy.
An analysis of past results shows that Guineas winners are ones to be wary of for example. Most go off a short price and very few win. Conversely, those who are too stoutly bred, like some of O’Brien’s in recent years, and are sure to get the trip, often lack that X-factor that you need to win the race. Ideally you need a combination of speed and stamina.
As for the Blue Riband trial, I believe it still exists and is run earlier than most of the trials, but it’s a dire race these days, even lower down in the pecking order than the Lingfield and Goodwood trials.
Well have taken some of the 20/1 on Libertarian each way.
What’s not to like? Won the Dante which has produced more Derby winners than any other trial, won the race going away coming from last to first on only his third start, would probably have won by 5 lengths or so had it been a mile and a half. Hugely progressive profile, sired by a derby winner, sure to stay the trip.
) The race was notable for Jason Weaver setting the doubtful stayer Mister Baileys alight and going several lengths clear going around the home bend, but running out of puff.
But i’m a great believer in using history to divine what might happen in future.
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