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Talking about yourself again H.
I was going to leave it (see the first post on this page) but I was under the impression from your next post you wanted a reply.
Now you seem to wish I remained silent. Make up your mind.
I notice you have a little to say on the Equinome link I sent. Yes, Mr Bolger has more than a passing interest, does he not.
I don’t dismiss CC/CT/TT’s H, just over-hyped EDIT: (probably because of Jim Bolger’s involvement).Beaten after 6 furlongs, are you saying CC’s stopped the GUINEAS winner from "staying" 6 furlongs too H?
CC’s may have had something to do with the result, but not (imo) everything or indeed the majority. Had Dawn Approach (even with his CC’s) settled – I believe he’d probably have won. He didn’t and we shall never know. Hope to see Dawn Approach in the Sussex, as he is a top class miler. Hopefully Epsom does not leave a mark".
Ginge, I know it ill behoves you to concede on any point, let alone the better man ; your narcissistic traits won’t allow for that, but hey… I understand the situation. my youngest ( 23 yr old opinionated, headstrong, very clever daughter : Ist class University degree and all that
) like yourself, still treads that rather awkward path on the road to enlightenment – such are the foibles and vagaries of youth – false pride and all that. Ginge, maturity comes at a price.
Get off your high horse H! Just because someone does not agree with your opinion, does not make them wrong. We have a difference of opinion, no need for me to "concede". Get over it. Please H, consider where your daughter got her "attributes" from?
Pot, kettle, black. I pity your daughter H, having to put up with that line of arguement at every difference of opinion. 
Value Is EverythingI see you conveniently ignored Robert’s points H.
Stating anything about a horse based on a single gene is utter baloney and laughed at by serious genetic scientists. You would have to test a huge population to make any statistical sense of racing results and entries, let alone explain them with any rigour. The meat industry, for example, research genes in producing maximum muscle and about 3400 genes are directly involved in that.
It is still not known whether DA would have stayed or not – he lost any chance soon after the start when he was barged sideways.
Under 30% of modern 2000G winners have won the double and the same "will he wont he stay debate" has been held for every one.
Presumably your personal attack is aimed at him and everyone else who disagrees with you too.
Value Is Everythingbut what I don’t accept is the widely held opinion that the early pace did for him. He was crazy spooked about something for certain, but I very much doubt the pace had anything to do with it.
Do you not think it is difficult for a horse to go from a strongly run Guineas mile to basically 1m6f pace on its very next start Joe?
I think it would be difficult. But the 1m6f pace wasn’t happening a dozen strides after leaving the stalls, which was about when he started acting like a crazy horse.
I’ve no inclination to research this, but my guess is that many horses more headstrong than DA have come from the Guineas and run that first furlong or so at Epsom in the same time as Saturday, without behaving like that.
Going from as fast as needed Guineas to win the Derby was the accomplishment of Sea the Stars.But Kinane never wasted StS’s energy.
As one who believes the bloodstock industry to contain more timeserved spoofers than even racehorse training, I should be a natural for supporting efforts to set the whole shebang on a more rational basis.
However I am concerned that the sample sizes that were given in the report were small (or not mentioned) and even more that this theory has morphed into a business in which Mr Bolger has a considerable share.
I have a friend who is a statistical modelling researcher. He told me that up to recently if he applied for funding for, say, "The Effect of Social Mobility on UK Agriculture" he would be turned down. If he applied to the same Government sources for "Climate Change And The Effect of Social Mobility on UK Agriculture" the cash would come flying in.
I.e. If you’re holding the readies, you can get the results you require.
But this is an interesting field nevertheless and certainly not one to dismiss.
Mike
But this is an interesting field nevertheless and certainly not one to dismiss.
Mike
Yes, I wholeheartedly agree.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Gingertipster said :
CC’s may have had something to do with the result, but not (imo) everything or indeed the majority. Had Dawn Approach (even with his CC’s) settled – I believe he’d probably have won. He didn’t and we shall never know. Hope to see Dawn Approach in the Sussex, as he is a top class miler. Hopefully Epsom does not leave a mark".____________________________________________________
Ginge, the point I’m making is that Equinome’s thorough research has concluded that CC types are sprinter types whose optimum distance is just beyond 6 furlongs, and are best suited to distances up to a mile.
I have unearthed this from Jim Bolger, taken from a TV interview in October 2012. The subject is Dawn Approach.
Interviewer – Q: How does he ( Dawn Approach ) compare with his sire, New Approach?
JB : He’s right up there with New Approach but he ( DA ) may not stay as well as he ( NA ) could do – but he’ll still be able to stay a mile – he’s a top miler !
Interviwer – Q: Will he ( DA ) stay beyond a mile ?
JB: It’s possible he may get another furlong ( i.e. 1m 1f ) … hmm… two ( 1m 2f ) might be stretching it; but from my point of view I’ll be happy if he stays at a mile … I think he’ll be a top miler.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Time will prove ROTW to be exceptional; the burst of speed from back of the field to lead was not due to stamina. Also he is unexposed, improving and has a superb pedigree.
I also think there was something wrong with Dawn Approach; his running was to bad to be true
Gingertipster said :
CC’s may have had something to do with the result, but not (imo) everything or indeed the majority. Had Dawn Approach (even with his CC’s) settled – I believe he’d probably have won. He didn’t and we shall never know. Hope to see Dawn Approach in the Sussex, as he is a top class miler. Hopefully Epsom does not leave a mark".____________________________________________________
Ginge, the point I’m making is that Equinome’s
thorough
research has concluded that CC types are sprinter types
whose optimum distance is just beyond 6 furlongs
, and are best suited to distances up to a mile.
I have unearthed this from Jim Bolger, taken from a TV interview in October 2012. The subject is Dawn Approach.
Interviewer – Q: How does he ( Dawn Approach ) compare with his sire, New Approach?
JB : He’s right up there with New Approach but he ( DA ) may not stay as well as he ( NA ) could do – but he’ll still be able to stay a mile – he’s a top miler !
Interviwer – Q: Will he ( DA ) stay beyond a mile ?
JB: It’s possible he may get another furlong ( i.e. 1m 1f ) … hmm… two ( 1m 2f ) might be stretching it; but from my point of view I’ll be happy if he stays at a mile … I think he’ll be a top miler.
But Equinome’s research is NOT "thorough" is it H? Sample sizes are way too small for it to be thorough… And to think of Dawn Approach’s "optimum distance is just beyond 6 furlongs" – is sheer stupidity. All the evidence now suggests his optimum distance is a mile.
Everyone knew Dawn Approach would be top class at a mile (well, apart from Equinome
). The question was would he stay a mile and a half? On breeding probably not, but his temperament (up to the time he lined up on Derby Day) suggested there was at least a possibility. We now know he does not settle well enough at a slow pace – so does not stay the Derby trip. That might be partly down to CCs, but breeding and temperament also contribute heavily. There are many genes taken from sire and dam that influence stamina H, not just one.Jim Bolger has an interest in Equinome, so it is no surprise you’ve found an interview near enough agreeing with Equinome. Who was this interview for H? There are also plenty of quotes of him saying near enough the opposite. I think history has taught us not to judge Jim Bolger on what he says; especially when it comes to the Derby.
At the time of that interview Jim Bolger’s interests lie in agreeing with Equinome – and then after the Guineas his best interests lie in agreeing with his owner. So I’d rather form my own opinions rather than believing anything the trainer says H.Value Is EverythingWhy would anyone have an interest in looking at breeding from a scientific point? Is Mr. Bolger some kind of nut? Breeding is about sex and it has long been known that the more aggressive the stud the better chance of getting a Derby winner.
But Equinome’s research is NOT "thorough" is it H? Sample sizes are way too small for it to be thorough… And to think of Dawn Approach’s "optimum distance is just beyond 6 furlongs" – is sheer stupidity. All the evidence now suggests his optimum distance is a mile.
Everyone knew Dawn Approach would be top class at a mile (well, apart from Equinome
). The question was would he stay a mile and a half? On breeding probably not, but his temperament (up to the time he lined up on Derby Day) suggested there was at least a possibility. We now know he does not settle well enough at a slow pace – so does not stay the Derby trip. That might be partly down to CCs, but breeding and temperament also contribute heavily. There are many genes taken from sire and dam that influence stamina H, not just one.Jim Bolger has an interest in Equinome, so it is no surprise you’ve found an interview near enough agreeing with Equinome. Who was this interview for H? There are also plenty of quotes of him saying near enough the opposite. I think history has taught us not to judge Jim Bolger on what he says; especially when it comes to the Derby.
At the time of that interview Jim Bolger’s interests lie in agreeing with Equinome – and then after the Guineas his best interests lie in agreeing with his owner. So I’d rather form my own opinions rather than believing anything the trainer says H.Again, you miss the point. The interview was NOT about Equinome: it was all about Dawn Approach and his upcoming 3 year old career.
Equinome’s research team took samples from virtually all Jim Bolger’s horses. Bolger was presented with the findings – with which he concurs. Dawn Approach had the CC genetic type – hence why Bolger KNEW that Dawn Approach would not get much further than a mile. Not thorough in overall horses tested – that may be so, but thorough in the actual science applied. There are over three BILLION combinations of the CC/CT/TC/TT types.
I know you are one of the chief cherry pickers on here Ginge, so it’s no surprise that you chose to highlight the optimum distance of just over 6f quote – but why disregard the most important aspect of the same quote : i.e. that CC types are BEST SUITED to distances UP to a mile ?
A very good analogy was made on this very subject.
Asking a CC type racehorse to race beyond its comfort zone is like asking Usain Bolt ( who had a similar human sprint gene test conducted recently ) to race against Ethiopians over 5,000 metres. The outcome would not be good for the CC type racehorse or Usain Bolt.
I think that many more trainers and breeding experts around the world will buy into this ( many already have ) and it will soon become a very important cog in the breeding machinery.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The interview may not be "about Equinome" H, but he is hardly going to express a totally different opinion than his part-owned company.
I am not "missing the point" H, I am making
my own point
– a point
you are ignoring
. It is
you
who is "cherry-picking"! Jim Bolger is a
Director and co-founder
of Equinome. So you’d
expect
him to
agree
with
Equinome
findings. It was in
his best interests
to do so. Particularly as at the time of said interview Dawn Approach was thought unlikely to go for the Derby anyway. When it became obvious after the Guineas his 51% owner wanted to go to Epsom – Jim Bolger conveniently changed his own stance when it was in his
best interests
to do so. ie No trainer (other than Sir Henry) will disagree with Sheikh Mo, as they want his patronage.
You are "cherry-picking" one interview that
suits you
H, I am taking in to account
all
interviews (not only those that suit me). Concluding that because Jim Bolger has expressed completely different opinions when it
suits him
– nobody can be certain what his
true
opinion is. I’d rather come to my own opinion and not rely on anything Jim Bolger says.
Get this through your head H, I am
not
dismissing Equinome. Will be interested to see
independent
analysis of their work. Just that…
A) Geneticists will tell you there is more than one type of gene influencing stamina.
B) I believe there were other greater influences that stopped Dawn Approach staying than CC’s. It seems I have a similar position to both Betlarge and Robert99.
and
C) At the moment I trust my own judgement a lot more than Equinome.
Why does my opinion matter so much to you H? Have you shares in Equinome?
Or is it that reason (B) prevents you from saying"I told you so"?
I have no problem with you having a different opinion to my own. Can we now forget about it?Value Is EverythingGinge, again you are you misled: it is not your opinion I am interested in; rather the thinking behind this particular subject. Your field of "expertise" is apparently numbers, odds, arithmetic, percentages. On that, you can certainly wax lyrically with the best of them.
On other subjects, your approach seems slightly more scatter-gun. Just an opinion.
The subject of our disagreement was Dawn Approach; his ability to stay The Derby trip and whether or not Mr. Bolger knew whether he would stay or not. I believe he went against all he knew to be true in order to accommodate the machinations of the colt’s joint owner.
I said immediately after the Guineas that The Derby would be a trip too far for DA and backed against him accordingly. I even had a private side bet with a very good friend of mine, who was equally adamant that Dawn Approach would not only stay, but win by 5 lengths plus – ala Nashwan. I even implored him to pull out of the bet.
Yes Ginge, my altruistic side sometimes gets the better of me.
Anyhow, it’s obvious we won’t agree on this matter – so, let us, for everyone’s sake ( and my sanity ) move on.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
For the Irish Derby.Looks like RftW will not have to beat anything else from the yard.I wonder who gets the ride?
) like yourself, still treads that rather awkward path on the road to enlightenment 
Get off your high horse H! 
I have no problem with you having a different opinion to my own. Can we now forget about it?
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