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Crazy theory I know but this horse just looks too slow to me to win a decent ground guineas.
Cast your mind back a few years and his sire New Approach (who I think was a much better horse in any case) came into the race with very similiar credentials. Unbeaten as a two year old, but he was done for pace by Henrythenavigator.
There’s probably no Henry in the field this year but there are some of his progeny- would it be much of a shock to see the rather one-paced Dawn Approach get done for toe just like his sire.
My first post so be gentle
Far from being a cry theory based on the visual evidence.Dawn approach looks to be a horse who will improve for a trip on what we have seen so far.No more so than in the coventry did he look like a tad short of speed before powering to the front.Once he got to the lead he looked to be pulling up.That was my first impression from my view that day and having seen the race run again from several angles i was convinced thats exactly what he was doing.He ran around a lot in the national stakes too when he got to the front.I would go along with bolgers theory that hes a bit lazy.His sire was very much the same when he hit the front.
The fact dawn approach went unbeaten all season tunning right through the coventry to the dewhurst its hard to think he wouldnt of becoming exposed if he didnt have a bit of toe.So i’d be a backing rather than a layer at the current odds.How can you possibly say that, you might as well say Toronado beat nothing in the Craven apart from his stable companion and a horse recovering from a leg injury.
Dawn Approach goes into the Guineas unbeaten and I am hoping that he retains his record. If there is one to beat him then so be it, racing never ceases to surprise, but I am and always have been confident that Dawn Approach will win the race that eluded his Sire by a nose.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...How can you possibly say that, you might as well say Toronado beat nothing in the Craven apart from his stable companion and a horse recovering from a leg injury.
But he practically did beat nothing in the Craven, right?
I tip my hat to your fearless pursuit to see DA beat as long as you take the fall if he hoses up on the day
I recommend to anyone considering backing this beast, to have a look at a video of last year’s Dewhurst.
There is no conceivable way that a horse that slow can win a good-ground Guineas.
He’s got lazy running style but is definitely not slow. Two completely different things. That said, fancy the two Hannon runners for this one. I know a run before the Guineas is not an absolute necessity, but I’ll still rather side with those with a prep run, especially as I believe there’s not that much between them.
I have to disagree with you on Dawn Approach being slow, EGS. This horse was the last horse still on the bridle in the Dewhurst, then seemingly got unbalanced in the dip.
I think the Henrythenavigator colts will be major challengers on the good ground. Remember their sire was hopeless on any ground containing soft in the description, yet exceptional on good or quicker.
George Vancouver is insanely-good value compared to many of them. He is a Breeders Cup winner (quickened smartly on a speed track) who ran well in the Dewhurst despite the turf flying. Although Dawn Approach is the most likely winner, I’ll take George at 18/1 – GT would be proud of me!
I recommend to anyone considering backing this beast, to have a look at a video of last year’s Dewhurst.
There is no conceivable way that a horse that slow can win a good-ground Guineas.
A good horse will win on any ground.
I was there when he won the Dewhurst and viewing the race from the high grandstand looking down on the Rowley Mile. Yes he looked as though he had hit a flat spot in the dip but 2 furlongs from home when Kevin Mannning pulled him out and asked for his effort his response was amazing.He enters the race unbeaten in 5 races. My hope is to see this brilliant young horse take the 2000 Guineas today and quieten his doubters for good. New Approach only lost the Guineas by a nose to Henrythenavigator and then went on to win the Derby, no disgrace there and hopefully Dawn Approach will win the race for him today and all those who have kept the faith.
I’ll be there cheering him into the Winners Enclosure
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Dawn Approach won over 5 furlongs as a two year old. OK it was his first race and not strong company but it shows inherent speed to be able to win over the minimum trip. It would be harsh to say he’s a slow horse after that win at five and two subsequent wins over six, including the Coventry Stakes. There were 22 runners that day and the going was good, so he must have beaten an awful lot of slow horses there if he is as lacking in pace as you say.
I would be more concerned that Dawn Approach might have been more precocious than his rivals last term and may not have progressed as much over the winter. He also has to prove he is cherry ripe first time up.
Toronado didn’t excite me last year but he looks to have improved from two to three. I have slight reservations about using Dundonnell as a yardstick but on the face of it Toronado has moved further ahead of him than was the case last year.
I believe Toronado will commit first today and my hunch is that he may just hold on from Dawn Approach, who will surely finish to some effect, if not quite quickly enough on today’s ground.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I do sincerely hope Dawn Approach proves not to be too slow.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
As Andyod says, I wish I owned a horse as "slow" as Dawn Approach.
What in gods name has happened to this place?
Slow Slow QUICK QUICK QUICK
I truly hope Dawn Approach’s 5 length victory this afternoon has put all his doubters to bed.
What a performance….Kevin Manning made sure he was stoked up before he reached the dip and when he was taken on by Toronado he eyeballed him and literally said watch this space…that space was 5 lengths….WELL DONE DAWN APPROACH…Where will you go next you are a true champion and your Sire New Approach would have been spurring you on today to finish the job that he couldn’t.Love this horse to bits and even managed to give him a stroke on the nose after the race when we went round to the stables next to the pre-parade ring to see him cooling down after his victory. His Lad brought him round to the small crowd that had gathered to take photos and just admire the winner and let us stroke and make a fuss of him. He was so relaxed after the race his back leg was crooked in the resting position while he was being hosed down…a great victory and I couldn’t be more happy tonight…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Horrible call by me there- hold my hands up deserve all the abuse I get! got a bit carried away with the dewhurst run but loved him after the coventry. tbf newmarket is more of a grinders track, you don’t want the flashy types. anyway any horse good enough to win the coventry, it’s mad to say they won’t have the pace for the guineas.
least I got hot snap right though was painful to see just the judge chinned- had it each-way but so close!
Horrible call by me there- hold my hands up deserve all the abuse I get! got a bit carried away with the dewhurst run but loved him after the coventry. tbf newmarket is more of a grinders track, you don’t want the flashy types. anyway any horse good enough to win the coventry, it’s mad to say they won’t have the pace for the guineas.
least I got hot snap right though was painful to see just the judge chinned- had it each-way but so close!
I think when your passionate about racing EGS it’s easy to get carried away when you see something that you think will stop a horse winning a certain race, but being ever the optimist I saw the glass half full instead of half empty
All credit for putting your hands up, it was a brilliant win yesterday and sorry to report EGS I backed Sky Lantern today each way, honestly thought Just the Judge had it though, great ride by Richard Hughes.
Best Guineas meeting I have attended since Frankel won.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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