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Positive booking IMO.
Give me Kerrin McEvoy over James Doyle any day of the week. Give me most senior pros over James Doyle, in fact.
He wasn’t totally straightforward but the Pipe team did a fine job in nursing the best out of You Say What in the last 18 months or so, especially at his favourite track: Exeter. He liked extreme distances and soft ground and seemed at least as good as ever this year.
It was an awkward fall on a firm surface. Sad to lose one who looked likely to be a fixture in fairly decent staying handicap chases over the next few years.
A really sombre moment in the office when this happened. We all liked Santani – a nimble front-running jumper with a good attitude who looked at least a 130 horse in the making, possibly better over further in time. He was lugging his double penalty along like a Trojan and looked likely to win again when the leg gave way. Especially sad for Tom Symonds, who doesn’t seem to get much luck.
Sadly broke down right in front of a young crowd at Uttoxeter as well, heard it took a long time to get screens around him. :(
Forced pretty deep down into single figures on Regal Reality now.
Annoying situation yesterday when you *think* you’re well under one you fancy, then the ticker lights up with bets, you check Oddschecker and suddenly it’s a sea of blue around you and you’ve got your bum hanging out at top price!
Also got on Iridessa @ 16s here. Think Pink Dogdoo is opposable with the Oaks looking substandard this year.
Agreed. I expect we’ll be out to get her at that kind of price on the day, but in the meantime plenty of scope to beat SP.
Some chopper on the RUK website did a preview of the Coral-Eclipse and made the point that Stoute regularly does run horses in all three of the Prince of Wales, Coral-Eclipse AND King George…although I wonder if perhaps the 2019 situation is a little different with Crystal Ocean. I doubt many of the previous Stoute runners competed on soft ground at Royal Ascot.
AOB & co still not decided on Circus Maximus plans by the sound of it, although I would guess that he’d rock up here. A Coral-Eclipse is worth a bit more for a stallion’s CV than a Sussex Stakes I’d say.
AOB has put his cards on the table with those six. AVD does look a shade classier than Broome, although I’d suggest the big sweeping move Broome made in the heat of the race at Epsom was not ideal for his chance and you might be able to rate them a bit closer, especially on a stiffer track.
Telecaster must be considered very doubtful. Not sure what the plans are for Surfman.
Assuming those miss out, Madhmoon really is the only other plausible danger. Simon Rowlands suggested that Madhmoon did kick on a little too soon at Epsom and was worth an upgrade there. Stamina would remain a major concern for him on a stiffer course with the AOB rags sure to serve their purpose in forcing a good pace. Though you’d be harsh to call him a palpable non-stayer at Epsom, it still remains a nagging doubt given his rather mile-y pedigree and smooth way of travelling. A slightly more conservative ride might just narrow the gap, for all the wide expanse of The Curragh could just stretch it back out again.
The big three are 11/8, 3/1 and 7/2 at best prices, which is only 89%. Madhmoon is probably still the one I’d come down on if having a bet, although it’s one of those rubbish situations where you *know* 8/1 was available not long ago. You should definitely still take the new price but it’s hard to get so excited about 3/1 on a (imo) 9/4ish poke when the likes of Ginge are sitting pretty at more than double the price. Still, do Tankerville, Trossachs, Western Australia and Sovereign have an 11% chance between them? Probably not.
(edit after some appalling addition and industry pushouts, maths is hard!)
Wouldn’t be so sure with Circus Maximus – I’m responsible for most if not all of today’s blue, just tinkering away with the market.
Haven’t heard anything to say whether or not he’ll actually take part, but does feel like the most plausible of the AOB entries. Surely he’ll run something. Then again he said Magna Grecia tore his hamstring in the Irish Guineas – not ‘pulled’ but ‘tore’. Potentially a big ask to get him back in full work ready for the Sussex? It would be a fairly mid-to-long term injury in a human! Would they want Circus Maximus to ‘cover’ him at a mile instead?
But then what if not Magical? Briefly thought Pink Dogwood could be the answer but she’s going to the Pretty Polly. AOB didn’t even mention this as a possible target for Japan.
My head is spinning. Unthinkable for AOB to go unrepresented near the front of the market here though.
Good find Jack!
Yeah, there were similar quotes in the print edition of the RP about a week or 10 days ago as well. Gosden is starting to make some noises that Enable will run, though.
Another interesting thing for Regal Reality could be his speed figures/sectionals case. I only receive speed figures along with 5-day declarations so don’t have the exact numbers for Regal Reality, but there’s reason to believe he did something a bit special last time out. I noticed when compiling the Queen Anne that Matterhorn was given a notably large timefigure for his Brigadier Gerard run. Danceteria has also franked the form with some success in France. With that in mind, I expect Rowlands and the rest of the data boys will be all over RR when they post their tipping columns for the race.
25s will evaporate anyway (think I’ve just knocked it off with 365, sorry!) as an intended runner in a race that is about to cut up…but I fancy he’ll be quite a big shortener in the next 10 days or so.
Interesting race, isn’t it? I know everyone is betting to plenty but you’d have your doubts about many at the top of the market and there might be a bet in there somewhere.
You’d want to see pretty strong definitive comments saying that Enable is on target and an intended runner. There’s a rumour that Magical bled near the finish in the PoW – anyone who was on-course able to confirm that? They’re talking about the King George next for Sea Of Class. Phoenix Of Spain finished very sore in the SJP and would probably be considered a doubt as well.
With the top of the betting falling away, I’d imagine Circus Maximus would be a likely runner. Double figures about him could look a bit silly if so. Regal Reality would surely come into the picture as well – lots of Sandown form and on the upward curve. Connections are talking about another piddly G2 but might have a change of heart once this starts cutting up? Especially if Stoute has other targets in mind for Crystal Ocean.
By the way lads, you’re breaking Simon Clare’s heart. It’s always ‘Coral-Eclipse’ with the hyphen!
Edit: actually gonna bet Regal Reality now @ 25s. Stoute quoted in the RP a few weeks back saying this is the target.
Thanks all. Unlucky not to win, wasn’t he? ITV said he ran each of the final 5 furlongs in the fastest sectional time!
I must give a huge amount of credit to my friend Martin (once Irish Stamp on TRF) who has been raving about Nagano Gold for months and telling me he’s a serious animal – he made me take a second look at the videos and give him the rating he deserved.
Nagano Gold will not finish last here, actually think he has a place chance or perhaps better.
It’s well worth a look at some of his videos – absolutely slaughtered the useful Funny Kid despite being stopped in his run a few times then again unlucky in the run last time. He was not far behind Salouen in a G2 last year – again in spite of Salouen having a cushy lead and Nagano Gold having to pick his way through from an impossible position on a turning track off a slow pace.
He’s a bit like yesterday’s winner Watch Me in that he’s a strong-travelling hold-up type who’ll never be seen to best effect in these silly slowly-run French group races where all the ‘Bozo The Clown’ jocks seem quite happy to sit on the bridle out the back until 2f out, by which point it’s usually too late to reel in the prominent racers.
He’ll get some pace to run at on a stiffer course here and I really fancy his chances. He has a similar style to Defoe and arguably a little more in the way of raw pace and class than that one, for all that he doesn’t have the body of work in group races to prove it. Masar looks a shade toxic (you’d certainly want to play him win-only rather than e/w!) having struggled to lay up with Secret Advisor in a recent public gallop. Southern France is a surprising runner and the rest all have their G2 limitations laid bare already.
I’m quietly optimistic for the Czech raider.
Betting W/O much healthier for your accounts than betting e/w in a race with that kind of shape too. Smart play.
Really keen on Happen myself btw. Backed her and Watch Me.
UPDATE
2.30 – Lil Grey (Alabama Whitman)
3.05 – Pondus (Jack Yeats)
3.40 – Jash (Khaadem)
4.20 – Happen NAP & Watch Me (Hermosa)
5.00 – Maamora (Thanks Be)
5.35 – Sevenna Star (Lethal Steps)There’s definitely a lot of sense in that, Mtoto.
As a scoreboard decision:
There must be a fair % chance that a casual punter who didn’t get a ‘justice refund’ from their regular firm when other bookies coughed up will then decide to bet elsewhere. It’s probably a false economy for the bookie to save the sum of one bet on that occasion if they stand to win steadily from the customer long-term.
