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I’ve been buzzing waiting for your thoughts on this one, Bobby! Looks a good renewal on paper, better than last year I think.
I had a rather frantic afternoon compiling this and the Summer Hurdle for the firm yesterday.
I’d agree that the shape of the market makes you want to play something mid-pack at double figures. Ronava’s price shows due respect to The Good Doctor although this is a huge ask up in the weights after beating a bunch of exposed Hexham low-graders. I also don’t think Gortroe Joe is especially well-handicapped having won a few races that have fallen apart around him.
My shortlist at the moment is Henryville, Darcy Ward, Theinval, Trigger Nichol and Beggar’s Wishes.
Henryville deserves respect by default as a Bowen runner in this race, but I was quite impressed by his smooth win at the Abbot last weekend – was quietly backed under the radar there as well. He was set to go close when brought down at the last from 144 in this back in 2016. He has zigged and zagged and changed trainer since then (now 11yo of course) but hard to write him off with confidence.
Darcy Ward might have just hit his limit yet I’m prepared to give him a pass for his defeat in the Trial. I wonder if he went for home a little soon there with hold-up weapon Gone Platinum coming through to pick his pocket. I was very impressed with his Exeter win back in April – laughed at Awake At Midnight (on a winning mark) and King Cnut (subsequent winner). Admittedly did win two small field races since then and might have let the handicapper catch up but still only 6 and some chance the last run was just a sighter for this? Hard to weigh him up but would rather have him than Ronava or Gortroe Joe at the prices.
Trigger Nichol is another who might have been a bigger price with a different yard (hasn’t really dabbled in this grade before) but might shorten up even so. Charlie Hammond will ride Ronava (owned by his father) so you’d think STD will get the nod for Trigger Nichol, which the market will read as a positive. That’s ‘with a run’, though, as he does have another entry. Don’t think you’d want to play him ante-post. He’s a quietly progressive sort who had no chance of getting involved having been caught out of his ground on his last two starts. He’s related to some lovely late-maturing good ground chasing types like my old favourite Fine Parchment and still young – would bet he’ll rate 20lbs higher than his current mark at his peak.
Totally agree with Bobby RE: Theinval. He was obviously being nursed along towards his usual spring targets last season but must have had a setback to miss the Grand Annual, Aintree and Ayr. He’s a class act in this field and would be a huge player with a run and a positive jockey booking. It’s all rather complicated though. Who would you want to see jocked up? Jerry McGrath is the regular rider for both Theinval and the same owner’s Pacific De Baune. Would Nico be a good booking in this case?
Interesting to see what happens on Friday with that pair.Beggar’s Wishes is the one I want to back right now, especially if Roddy Owen (does he still post here?) could give us something positive. I just don’t understand 365’s 28/1. He’s a Bowen horse very much capable of winning a big pot from 138 (absolutely hacked up from a couple of horses who went on rate higher from 132 about a year ago). He was a touch flattered by his career-best win at Newton Abbot as shown by his struggles from ridiculous marks as high as 152, but the handicapper has let him off the hook just in time. The only worry is that he missed his recent intended prep run with an infected foot, presumably missing some work.
Also a nagging doubt as to quite how the Bowen jockey bookings will work out as they have three horses to go between the two brothers, including last year’s winner More Buck’s. Robbie Dunne has ridden Henryville before and could be the man to get James or Sean on Beggar’s Wishes, or perhaps one (possibly BW) might be ridden by one of the stable amateurs? I’m a little spooked that he might not run or might not be ready, but I think the answer is to have half stakes at 28 and top up if the signs are right. It’s potentially such a big rick price that I think you can eat the 15-ish% chance of getting no run.
That 6/4 is probably the worst price I have seen all year
Won’t be if the race cuts up to King Of Comedy, Lord Glitters, Zabeel Prince, Skardu, Never No More, Romanised, Happy Power and Matterhorn!
Probably won’t be *that* extreme but might be.
Whipless racing would change racing enormously. Not worth betting on.
Gingertipster is absolutely right. Amazing how blind these wallahs are to this as well. Take away the whip and you first kill the betting then kill the sport dead within 10 years. We must fight these short-sighted people tooth and claw.
The whip is a gateway issue. Cormack and the rest talk about ‘perceptions’ but if we cave on the whip, how do we defend the concept that we’re producing chronically inbred animals and training them to race for our entertainment – all the while accepting that a percentage will die on the racecourse through the risks of the challenges we set and another unseen percentage will die either due to training injuries (linked to the inbreeding thing) or simply be killed for meat due to poor conformation or if unsellable at yearling/store auctions? Often at rather inhumane and unregulated slaughterhouses, one might add.
Barely anybody (even the agitators for change) talks about these issues of ‘wastage’ and irresponsible breeding, which are the real animal rights issues in our industry.
I don’t see how one can pivot these horribly dark and unseemly elements of horse racing against the rest of it and somehow conclude that we must get rid of the whip as an urgent priority. Strange how the mind works for some people, although I would suggest it’s another case of clueless groupthink. Wouldn’t be the first example of hypocrisy from this forum’s administrator, of course…
You’re right about the Luddites being set in their ways. The schadenfreude on Twitter (and indeed on here) after Visinari’s defeat in the July Stakes was shameful, short-termist and results-oriented. James Willoughby and Simon Rowlands are innovators and (for Rowlands in particular) their records stand up to scrutiny. Yet after one (very narrow) reverse for a sectionals/stride length/cadence pickout, I saw both men derided as “guessers” and “frauds”. As Willoughby said, what to the naked eye might just have been an ordinary Newmarket maiden winner ran to 105+ yesterday.
What price would Visinari have been in that market 15 or 20 years ago? 4/1+ most likely. Guildsman would have gone off favourite I’m sure.
You say the edge remains GT, but in real terms I think it is harder to get on the sectional NAPs. You’re OK if you’re content to bet to take out a few hundred, but what if you’re looking to get on with scale?
Visinari is a great example. For a decent quality race like the July Stakes, the juicy prices do exist at first since Hills, Paddy, 365 etc compilers currently don’t believe in the value of sectionals. With Visinari, the snowball effect started very early indeed. The fiddlers at WH & 365 initially went up 4/1. As Timeform, Willoughby and Rowlands had been vocal on social media about Visinari’s freakish debut performance pretty much as soon as he passed the post, that 4/1 was soon gobbled with most firms cutting to 5/2.
Then, still 5 days before the race, Andy Holding tipped Visinari at 5/2 (unprecedented 4pts win advised). Suddenly we (who had never been bigger than 2/1 and fancied it quite strongly at the prices) were laying it and top price with a sea of blue around us on Oddschecker. Bear in mind the limits that bookmakers will typically set for a 2yo non-G1 ante-post race like the July Stakes – this race was ‘online only’ and not available in retail for most firms. Most will allow a ‘clean’ unexposed online account to bet to take out £500 on a race like this. Personally, that’s not enough for me to be satisfied for a standard bet.
Skip forward to the day before the race. At around 14:00 Simon Rowlands tipped Visinari (I think at 6/5 or 11/10) in his influential AtTheRaces column. By 16:00 *THE DAY BEFORE THE RACE*, Visinari is now EVS across the board. By 11:00 the next morning (when online limits are raised right up and retail firms are offering their Lay To Lose Guarantee, he’s 5/6 and all value is gone.
So, assuming you have three or four decent online accounts, how much might you have got on Visinari @ 7/4+ in this market? If you were lucky (and accounts consistently carving up weak ante-post markets are not treated kindly), perhaps you’d have backed him to take out £2000. In the old days perhaps Visinari’s price might have held @ 7/2+ on the day of the race and you could easily have backed him to win at least 10x that amount.
So it does depend on what you’re hoping to win, I think, especially if you focus your attention on good quality ‘TV’ racing. My speciality is low-grade racing (C5, C6, C7). Again you have the issue of low limits and trying to keep accounts open, although usually there isn’t such a problem with the big data-driven tipsters ruining your prices. Value does seem to last much longer with the core day-to-day stuff.
Slightly bizarre post from Admin – like somebody arriving to the party just as they’re clearing up and turning off the lights. Sectional timing now has such a major influence that, as Gingertipster says, it’s almost at the point of losing its edge when the data becomes more widely publicised and understood. As the meaty P/L stats of Simon Rowlands show, the sectional edge is just undeniable. It isn’t even worth debating.
Bizarrely, I understand we the GVC bookies are the only ones who subscribe to sectional data. I know compilers at 365 and Hills who are bizarrely reluctant to embrace them. Hear there’s also a senior element at Paddy Power/BFS with a similarly retrograde stance. Since these firms are often among the first to go ‘live’ with markets, perhaps the edge will last a little longer!
From a personal point of view, I think sectionals have turned my punting inside out in the past couple of years. The bets you DO have are as valuable as the ones you DON’T have. Every day I see horses with profiles that I would probably have backed in the old days of my betting pre-enlightenment, but if the data shows they have been flattered or just haven’t done a time in the right ballpark, I pass them over.
For example – a horse like Ranch Hand in the Bahrain Trophy was a good one for sectional analysis. On the face of it, his quietly eyecatching staying-on 5th in the Lingfield Derby Trial (ahead of fav Eagles By Day) might have tempted me once upon a time. Crucially, the data showed his times left him a good 15lbs short of the standard required.
One thing I would say is that you still need a good sense of context and solid all-round punting smarts to go alongside your sectional data. Good interpretation is vital. I think that’s why Simon Rowlands is particularly successful – his analysis also includes thoughts on the other vital factors like ground, likely pace, course characteristics, draw etc and whether the horse is actually value at the market price. That sets him apart from some of the lesser sectionalistas like Will Hoffman and Andy Holding who I find overly data-driven and lacking a good feel for the rest of it. I understand both are still small winners over a decent sample, which just shows how strong the edge is – Holding in particular puts up quite few terribly poor value selections but finds enough sectional gold to make up for it.
Bit of an a harsh/overly dogmatic assessment of the old Haromester imo, Rob. Not just a small field bully.
Some outstanding runs right up there with his career-best efforts in the Epsom Dash and a valuable race at York in big fields – value for finishing closer both times under rather poorly-judged rides on the sectionals. Lesser handicaps in small fields midweek up north are just easier to win.
Also thought he was value today though. I priced it blind last night and made him 2/1, which seems to be where the market is heading now. Sound Of Iona maybe interesting at a price for big Jim.
Roger Fell’s barmy army in fine voice lately though – would be one of my favourite trainers if I could just get a better handle on him!
No, I don’t think the the old Slevdog would want another go at that. Lovely bit of Galway Hurdle mark protection. Really wasn’t in his interests to be winning last night.
I do feel for Kirby, who was on a hiding to nothing with some of these horses. Quite what Yates expected him to achieve with the remains of Don Poli and South Seas it’s hard to tell. These horses were trending down in terms of ability when Yates picked them up for way over their true value.
Kirby is a very good trainer. Anyone who can win a Grade 2 with Nautical Nitwit (no disrespect intended) must be rather canny in placing and preparing a horse. His M.O. is very much either nurturing his young horses and building towards long-term targets, or improving pickups from lesser stables. Take it from someone my side of the fence: Kirby’s strike rate when the market signs are right and is down is excellent – up there in the league of the true masters like Ian Williams and Dr Richard Newland. I expect he could have squeezed some kind of form out of these horses at a much lower level but it would have taken time and patience to come down the weights.
Interconnected will be a big loss for Kirby though – that’s a young horse with potential. Wildly overpriced again of course. I always like to see a shrewd small yard with a good horse.
Likewise was tempted by Mustashry, GT (backed him in the Lockinge and Queen Anne) though was very much discouraged by the way he carried his head on one side throughout the Queen Anne. That’s a huge red flag and I’m surprised he’s out again so quickly.
Depends on how much the money means to you right now/how much you’ve got in your betting account and all that but personally wouldn’t want to get out of a spot where I’ve got 25s about a true 6 or 7/1 shot in the final field and 5/1 the place versus a true price close to EVS. You cost yourself money in the longrun if you’re consistently trading out of these spots.
There’s a small chance Enable could yet be a NR if Gosden throws a hissy fit about the ground. Would be sitting even prettier if so.
Hard on-the-day market to call. I reckon Enable might be weak early on with all the doubts though doubt Magical would be uber-strong either with her preparation feeling rather half-baked.
Maybe that means Regal Reality would be strong by default?
All very much price-dependent though obviously. No final decs market formed yet.
The issue is that these horses weren’t trained for them properly – quite a poor reflection on von der Recke that both of his new pickups were spooked by the lake. Swimming chases are generally rather safe events contested by specialists. AngloGerman used to post preview/reviews/videos on here and you’d rarely see a faller.
Captain Von Trappe only ran for Alastair Ralph in May so obviously hadn’t had much time to train for this kind of race. Poor show from von der Recke, who had previously given every impression of being a fairly shrewd operator.
I don’t think those fansite accounts are actually affiliated with AOB/JOB (as much as they’d like to be!)
They’d be the best at digging up obscure articles about running plans though. Sad individuals.
I think if Ballydoyle rate Circus Maximus’ chance (and really they ought to with the SJP figure looking surprisingly good and the big age allowance) then there’s extra incentive for them NOT to run Magical. It would be a commercial disaster for them if a relatively worthless filly* short-headed a potential stallion in a premium all-age Group 1.
I’m cooling on the Regal Reality love a little having seen the figures with the Brigadier Gerard not looking as good as expected. I wonder if there was an error from the figures compilers in giving Matterhorn such a giant number in that race. Happy to be on e/w @ 25s don’t get me wrong, but no interest in the current price.
*she’s a G1 winner already and will breed in-house for the next 15 years all being well
Interesting to see what happens on Friday with that pair.