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Let’s be honest take the top 2 in the betting out and this looks like a group 2 fieldIf magical doesn’t run and enable is even half fit she should canter all over these
Tend to agree, bar Telecaster and Regal Reality have a certain amount of “potential” the rest aren’t up to much. Wouldn’t be convinced those two have the potential to be better than Enable or Magical either.
I’m interested in what people think RR will do in the market on the day of the race? Say Enable + Magical run?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Hard on-the-day market to call. I reckon Enable might be weak early on with all the doubts though doubt Magical would be uber-strong either with her preparation feeling rather half-baked.
Maybe that means Regal Reality would be strong by default?
All very much price-dependent though obviously. No final decs market formed yet.
I’d be dead keen to take Enable on tbh with Magical in almost every circumstance on reappearance. The only thing holding me back is Magical’s hard race at Ascot on bad ground . It was the same with SOC at Ascot, Magical really isn’t far off the two of them + on reappearance i suspect they’d be very vulnerable to her.
Agree LS, i couldn’t really work out how the market might go in this, might part lay the RR bet and let some of run on..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Depends on how much the money means to you right now/how much you’ve got in your betting account and all that but personally wouldn’t want to get out of a spot where I’ve got 25s about a true 6 or 7/1 shot in the final field and 5/1 the place versus a true price close to EVS. You cost yourself money in the longrun if you’re consistently trading out of these spots.
There’s a small chance Enable could yet be a NR if Gosden throws a hissy fit about the ground. Would be sitting even prettier if so.
Have covered my stake on enable with magical at 4/1 with hills
Cant see that price lasting long
I’d make her a 2/1-5/2 shot in this field
Maybe 11/4-3/1 absolute max given her hard race at ascot
If you have Magical at 5/2-11/4 what price is Enable & RR?
I can’t have her anywhere near that price. She wants 12F and a big of dig for me, not 10F on quick ground after 4 races including a slog.
So no Circus Maximus. Take Enable and Magical out for now and look at the others….
I can’t ignore Zabeel Prince getting a fair amount of support on the day at Ascot and going off single figures for the Prince of Wales. He probably hated the ground that day, so excuses there, but he also doesn’t like it too firm. Roger Varian said “he would not like it summer fast” after his Earl of Sefton win and his Group 1 win came on GS. I suspect the ground is not really going to be his ideal on Saturday, plus he his still unproven at 10F, which is usually a negative for the Eclipse and his breeding doesn’t match the usual profile. All that gives him still a bit to prove and needs a career best which seems unlikely, so although he did attract a lot of support, unless it happens again I’ll stay away.
Telecaster has a lot to prove now after his Derby run. 3year olds winning this off the derby are usually rock solid, Roaring Lion, Sea the Stars, Golden Horn. I question that Dante form now, Line of Duty and Too Darn Hot appear not to have trained on, Japan was nowhere near fit and Surfman was well beaten next time out in the French Derby. It would be some effort to win this.
Mustashry has won a listed over 10F before, but not sure this is his optimum distance, with all his best form over shorter and breeding much like Zabeel Prince doesn’t match the usual profile of a winner. The Lockhinge could well have been his day and it’s hard to think he can leave a poor run in the Queen Anne behind and deliver another career best over possibly not his optimum distance to win this.
Regal Reality is still the one for me that could spring a surprise. His breeding is top quality, out of French Derby Winner, 3rd in the Arc, damsire winner of the Eclipse, Lockhinge & Queen Anne & Dam is a dual Group 3 7F winner. He has the near perfect profile of a 10F horse and both Ryan Moore and Sir MS have talked about stepping him up and this being his ideal trip. He then went out and proved it over course and distance in a group 3, same ground he will get Saturday by nearly 4L with the 2nd and 3rd going on to win Listed and Group races since. Not top quality form, but solid enough to prove it was no fluke and I think he even ran in that last couple furlongs like he could improve again. He has the perfect profile of a Sir MS improver, the hint of decent form at 3 and then showing big improvement as he gets older. The big doubt is how he behaved at Sandown and I’m not sure the owners trust him much, but if he’s learned a bit more and Sir MS has got him to relax more and lets face it there’s no-one better at doing that with older horses than Sir MS, then he’s got a very good chance of being right there at the end. He is easily for me the most likely horse in the field (outside Enable and Magical), that can improve to run into a 120+ figure. He must have an outstanding EW chance.
Back to Magical and Enable, both I agree ideally want 12F with a bit of cut, but both might not need to be at their best to win. If Regal Reality doesn’t perform/improve, it’s a match bet for me and it all comes down to whether Enable is spot on for this or not.
Given how good the Regal Reality position is looking for me, it makes sense to go in a bit on Magical @ 9/2 now as a saver and I will wait on Enable, I’m half expecting her to come out to more 6/4 7/4 on the day as Magical comes in.
What a race this is though!
I’d make enable 11/8-13/8 because it’s her first run and isn’t over her ideal trip and ground so can see her drifting
personally dont think regal reality is near the same class of the top 2 and if either of them runs near their best will have to show a drastic improvement of form to get near them
I’d maybe have regal reality 8/1-9/1
Though I’m happy to be proven wrong and probably will be hahaha
If I was sitting on a huge price on regal reality like some of you are I’d be very happy with myself but at current prices not for me
GL all let’s just hope hunting horn doesnt do a sovereign lol
I’ll definitely lay my stake back on Regal Reality. Holding fire just now, but he’ll hopefully go a bit lower.
I backed Enable @ 5/2, but she is a stupid price now – with Magical running.
Question mark over whether Enable is still able to run to her 2017 form and on 2018 form there’s only 3/4 of a length between the pair. She may have won two top Group 1’s last year, but (unless believing Cloth Of Stars improved enormously from four to five) Enable was never at 2017 levels. We also don’t know how effective she’s going to be on reappearance and under fairly quick conditions at a shorter trip than normal.
Magical does have a question mark too. Quick turn around to get over, although harder still due to Royal Ascot being on softer ground times suggest it wasn’t as soft as some believe. But Crystal Ocean (a bloody good racehorse given RA conditions) was given a particularly good ride that day and (eased slightly when beaten) Magical wasn’t much (if anything) below her best and 4/1 worth taking as another main bet.
Of the Stoute pair: Regal Reality is improving but still needs to step up his form quite a bit. Also a small temperament doubt as to how well he’ll handle the atmosphere of a Group 1. Should certainly be third favourite but shouldn’t be as close to the two principles. I’d have been backing Mustashry had he lined up for the Sussex, but this is far tougher and – although probably ran a career best in the Lockinge – form may not be quite what it seemed. Needs to improve again to win if the top two are at anything like their bests. That’s asking quite a lot of this six year old. Needing to bounce back quickly after a poor run in the Queen Anne and is he as good at 10f?
One I could yet have as a saver is Telecaster. Yes, the Dante form has taken a few knocks; but he’s a big sort and therefore unlikely to have found his level yet. Also given his size, may not have handled Epsom and pulled too hard anyway. Eased a long way out and is certainly far better than last place implies. On form has a jump to find here, but – if truly up to the level of ability starting one of the favs for Epsom suggests… Drop in trip may suit and could be competitive if the front two are a little below their bests.
I was keen on Zabeel Prince in the POW on softish ground, but why was he so bad there? tbh Can see him being a non-runner on this firmish surface.
Only way Dancetaria can win is if everything else goes off too fast and only way Hunting Lion can is if everything ignores the pacemaker.
Value Is EverythingLikewise was tempted by Mustashry, GT (backed him in the Lockinge and Queen Anne) though was very much discouraged by the way he carried his head on one side throughout the Queen Anne. That’s a huge red flag and I’m surprised he’s out again so quickly.
I also expect zabeel prince to be a non runner tomorrow
I was slightly surprised hed been left in
He has generally performed better with a bit of cut
Does Magical or the field has/have a better chance?
44% 5/4 Enable (I’d only back her right now @ 6/4+)
28% 5/2 Magical (72% the pair)
(28% The Rest)
10% 9/1 Regal Reality
8% 12/1 Telecaster
6% 16/1 Mustashry
3% 33/1 Zabeel Prince
0.5% 200/1 Dancetaria
0.5% 200/1 Hunting LionAfter doing a 100% book, Magical has an even better chance than I first thought.
If I hadn’t backed Enable I’d be having an each way bet on Magical @ 4/1 (1/5 place) with possibly a small bet on the betfair palce market (when liquidity improves) for Magical to place. The pair of place bets together being a saver. Hope Zabeel stays in for 3 places, but with a few rank rank outsiders it’s virtually a 6 horse race anyway, 5 if Zabeel comes out.
My own bets are:
Enable 5/2 ante-post.
Magical 4/1 today.
Saver Telecaster 16/1 today.Value Is Everything4/1 available on Magical with Bet365. I didn’t think there was anything wrong with her run behind Crystal Ocean personally and if she’s come out of that okay I’m not sure how anyone can be over 50% confident in Enable on very fast ground over 10F on her first start of the season. Regal Reality’s price is bonkers he’s won a Group 3 against Matterhorn albeit very impressively and the price differential to Group 1 winners in Zabeel Prince and Mustashry and a Group 2 winner in Telecaster makes no sense.
Likewise was tempted by Mustashry, GT (backed him in the Lockinge and Queen Anne) though was very much discouraged by the way he carried his head on one side throughout the Queen Anne. That’s a huge red flag and I’m surprised he’s out again so quickly.
Yes, I had him for those two races aswell. Good point about Mustashry holding his head awkwardly, LS. I don’t remember him doing that before? Did he not enjoy being in amongst horses? Had previously seemed very genuine so maybe something slightly amiss? Also not as short as I expected in the market at Royal Ascot. Certainly not his running. Had he had a setback? You don’t hear much from Stoutey! Was it really too soft for him as some suggested beforehand? Suppose it might have had something to do with his price there. However, times suggested genuinely good-firm for the Queen Anne. tbh Mustashry running here would be a surprising decision from Stoute; if it wasn’t for who the owner is. Sheikh Hamdan and his brother seem to have more say in targets than the vast majority. If thinking Mustashry was certain to give his running there wouldn’t be much between stable companions.
Value Is EverythingThink the Dante form has been treated too harshly.
Too Darn Hot has finished 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas and 3rd in the St James’ Palace. Yes, he doesn’t appear to be the horse of last season but that’s still very solid form. Feel like Too Darn Hot has been judged harshly against sky high expectations following last season’s efforts. They were miles clear of Surfman (who I concede was poor in the Prix Du Jockey Club) & Japan. The latter wasn’t fully fit but his subsequent efforts have been very good, amongst the best of his division. You then have Turgenev running a blinder in the Britannia when Dettori may have gone too soon.
Telecaster has beaten these rivals having only made his debut at the backend of March. No chance his Epsom run was a genuine representation of his abilities. I have questions over his preparation for this. Obviously, the occasion of Epsom may have taken a lot out of him (he did get quite sweaty) but he has sufficient upside to hold decent claims in this lineup.
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