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Always like an early go at this, but looks the usual competitive affair……
Looking at this quintet just now, but finding it very difficult to split them right now, so no option but to hold off, and I’ll watch the market, and jockey bookings. No doubt I’ll buckle last minute, and add Theinval as well….
Poker School 20’s
Sizing Granite 20’s
Solar Impulse 20’s
Value At Risk 16’s
Van Gogh Du Granit 16’sI really do want an early play here, but completely undecided right now.
I’ve been buzzing waiting for your thoughts on this one, Bobby! Looks a good renewal on paper, better than last year I think.
I had a rather frantic afternoon compiling this and the Summer Hurdle for the firm yesterday.
I’d agree that the shape of the market makes you want to play something mid-pack at double figures. Ronava’s price shows due respect to The Good Doctor although this is a huge ask up in the weights after beating a bunch of exposed Hexham low-graders. I also don’t think Gortroe Joe is especially well-handicapped having won a few races that have fallen apart around him.
My shortlist at the moment is Henryville, Darcy Ward, Theinval, Trigger Nichol and Beggar’s Wishes.
Henryville deserves respect by default as a Bowen runner in this race, but I was quite impressed by his smooth win at the Abbot last weekend – was quietly backed under the radar there as well. He was set to go close when brought down at the last from 144 in this back in 2016. He has zigged and zagged and changed trainer since then (now 11yo of course) but hard to write him off with confidence.
Darcy Ward might have just hit his limit yet I’m prepared to give him a pass for his defeat in the Trial. I wonder if he went for home a little soon there with hold-up weapon Gone Platinum coming through to pick his pocket. I was very impressed with his Exeter win back in April – laughed at Awake At Midnight (on a winning mark) and King Cnut (subsequent winner). Admittedly did win two small field races since then and might have let the handicapper catch up but still only 6 and some chance the last run was just a sighter for this? Hard to weigh him up but would rather have him than Ronava or Gortroe Joe at the prices.
Trigger Nichol is another who might have been a bigger price with a different yard (hasn’t really dabbled in this grade before) but might shorten up even so. Charlie Hammond will ride Ronava (owned by his father) so you’d think STD will get the nod for Trigger Nichol, which the market will read as a positive. That’s ‘with a run’, though, as he does have another entry. Don’t think you’d want to play him ante-post. He’s a quietly progressive sort who had no chance of getting involved having been caught out of his ground on his last two starts. He’s related to some lovely late-maturing good ground chasing types like my old favourite Fine Parchment and still young – would bet he’ll rate 20lbs higher than his current mark at his peak.
Totally agree with Bobby RE: Theinval. He was obviously being nursed along towards his usual spring targets last season but must have had a setback to miss the Grand Annual, Aintree and Ayr. He’s a class act in this field and would be a huge player with a run and a positive jockey booking. It’s all rather complicated though. Who would you want to see jocked up? Jerry McGrath is the regular rider for both Theinval and the same owner’s Pacific De Baune. Would Nico be a good booking in this case?
Interesting to see what happens on Friday with that pair.Beggar’s Wishes is the one I want to back right now, especially if Roddy Owen (does he still post here?) could give us something positive. I just don’t understand 365’s 28/1. He’s a Bowen horse very much capable of winning a big pot from 138 (absolutely hacked up from a couple of horses who went on rate higher from 132 about a year ago). He was a touch flattered by his career-best win at Newton Abbot as shown by his struggles from ridiculous marks as high as 152, but the handicapper has let him off the hook just in time. The only worry is that he missed his recent intended prep run with an infected foot, presumably missing some work.
Also a nagging doubt as to quite how the Bowen jockey bookings will work out as they have three horses to go between the two brothers, including last year’s winner More Buck’s. Robbie Dunne has ridden Henryville before and could be the man to get James or Sean on Beggar’s Wishes, or perhaps one (possibly BW) might be ridden by one of the stable amateurs? I’m a little spooked that he might not run or might not be ready, but I think the answer is to have half stakes at 28 and top up if the signs are right. It’s potentially such a big rick price that I think you can eat the 15-ish% chance of getting no run.
Good stuff John, and can’t really crab any of yours.
I wish I could have looked in more depth at it, but it’s bloody murky.
No question a better renewal in store this year, but that doesn’t help matters right now.
Theinval was a regular of mine for a couple of years. Highlight was Aintree in 2015, but certainly gave a few bob back with him. It really was strange not seeing him at the big spring festival last. Been a while since I backed him, but certainly coming round to him. I’d say he’s (at his peak) the best of these, but as you say, complicated, and the other NJH pair look to be jocked up, not that I’m going to read that much into it.
Nah, I’ll have to wait till Friday, and now I’m looking at Get Out The Gate as well…….this is a tough one.
Absolutely no Antepost here.
It’s hard to ignore Bowen’s record in this race, and he’s got at least a couple that look
interesting, but I was impressed by the manner of Henryville’s win over c/d last Saturday, he
was the winner from a long way out. Having said that, he won despite his jumping which was
anything but fluent most of the way round. He didn’t look like coming down at any point, but
if he had met them all on the right stride he would have won by a country mile. This is a better
field so he’ll need to buck his ideas up, and although the handicapper has slapped a whopping
10lbs on, he won with any amount in hand. He’s running off 142, but he has won at this course
off a mark of 147, and has run off a high of 153, albeit a couple of years back. I think the
11/1 with Hills looks worth a crack at, and although it’s a quick turnaround
he looked like he could have gone round again last time out.More Bucks is another of Bowen’s who is interesting, I haven’t backed him (yet) but I might
relent before Saturday. It will be interesting to see the jockey arrangements, I’m hoping
that Sean sticks with Henry.I’m liking the booking of Jonjo jnr for Sizing Granite, who did nothing wrong with him in Ireland. A repeat of that early spring form looks possible here with Jonjo booked, and also the drop back in trip.
I’ll also go with Get Out The Gate, who’s been given a chance by the handicapper, but is probably more speculative than Sizing Granite. Connections have got some decent prizes in the bag in the past, and this doesn’t look beyond him.
I haven’t bet em yet, I’ll just wait till confirmed. I’ll adjust things slightly if Theinval gets the nod as well.
My final three (hopefully) if all declared…
Get Out The Gate
Sizing Granite
TheinvalVery pleased I held off, with two of them not going.
I’ll stick with Get Out The Gate, and I’d like two here, so I’ll add Van Gogh Du Granit.
I do like to take a string view on this usually, but these are definitely more speculative than usual.
Hopefully can beat these odds, but I won’t be going mad….
Van Gogh Du Granit 20’s
Get Out The Gate 25’s
EW 4 PlacesLikewise, race certainly cut up. Have ended up backing Pacific De Baune as I think he’s a class horse in a field of exposed summer jumpers.
Only 6. Sent off 4/1 and Hendo first string v Santini once upon a time. Gave chunks of weight and almost beat Act Of Valour at Fakenham. The big field scenario is an unknown admittedly. Got 8/1.
Also played Value At Risk small at 25+.
VtC, I agree with Van Gogh Du Granit. I think that the trip is the key here to him, and at prices around 16-1, I think that he is a good price to place.
Interesting to see what happens on Friday with that pair.
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