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I agree about punters being silly for wading into poor value at the short end of the big handicaps, but your logic is a little scrambled there stevecaution. You’re confusing SPs with form.
If 1 year and 1 day ago, we knew what we now know about Mondialiste, he would not have been 25/1 – he would have been very short indeed. The fact that he went off 25/1 on the basis of the betting world’s limited information means
- absolutely nothing
. You can’t base any arguments on it at all.
Given O’Meara’s suspicious talents for improving horses from other yards, his positivity in targeting the Lincoln with Lord Of The Land and the eery similarities to Mondialiste, surely you can understand why he went off so short. That’s not to say he was a bet at the price, but it wasn’t the most empty-headed wager on offer.
Hi Bob!
14:45 Doncaster – Ocean Tempest nb
15:20 Doncaster – Suedois NAP
17:20 Kempton – Castilo Del Diablo
15:55 Doncaster – Muwaary15:25 Kelso – Just Cameron
16:45 Kempton – Ennaadd
14:35 Newbury – AmidonI always liked Williams too, but Alfie Spinner, Fox Norton, Abracadabra Sivola and Amore Alato have been revived/improved since moving to other yards. That can’t be a good sign.
It’s hard to do much more than speculate, but I’d lean towards bad trainer.
Perhaps the best indication was Culloty’s explosive reaction to Davy Russell’s ride on Lord Windermere in last year’s Gold Cup. There’s something a bit unhinged and deluded about a trainer who bins the jockey after watching his horse plainly outpaced from the start.
Another indicator will be if/when Culloty’s horses turn up with other trainers. Look at the exploits of other handlers with former Nick Williams or Donald McCain-trained animals this season – the original trainers look quite inept when their seemingly exposed horses suddenly post career-bests elsewhere.
It’s nothing like the Nicholls v Pipe battle. Not even a little bit.
,
That was pure pigheadedness from both camps. At the bloody end of the tussle, you had the ill-fated Commercial Flyer being raced five times in a fortnight, plus that horrible Celebration Chase. That was a truly ugly spectacle with second-rate sacks like Golden Alpha, Kadarann, Locksmith and Upgrade scratching around for prize money while first and second Well Chief and Azertyuiop suffered serious (and for one career-ending) injuries at the end of hard campaigns.In contrast Mullins is asking horses who have had very light campaigns to run two or three times in two-and-half months.
You can’t blindly back any trainer’s horses.
The 1/9 stat is very misleading. Arctic Fire fell when holding every chance, Daneking ran the race of his life to be a close third, Bellshill beat all bar the mighty Barters Hill and Babylone Des Motte might have won if she had not been injured.
If the cards had fallen slightly differently, it could have been 5/9, including three G1s.
He might send a small team and save his very best for other targets, but almost every Mullins runner at Aintree goes there with a live chance and runs its race.
The Mullins nine last year were…
– Arctic Fire (fell at the last when every chance in Aintree Hurdle)
– Daneking (third in white-hot juvenile handicap behind Theinval & The Saint James)
– Champagne Fever
– Winner Nichols Canyon, subsequently a G1 winner and Champion Hurdle 3rd
– Turban (running a big race in the Topham when coming to grief 5 out)
– Roi Des Francs (PU, but went on to become one of the best staying novice chasers this season)
– Bellshill (great 2nd in the Bumper, went on to win the Punchestown bumper)
– McKinley (I’ll give you that one!)
– Ballycasey in the National
– Babylone Des Motte (fav for the mares bumper, but 5th and finished lame, not seen since)Mullins seems to take the G1s especially seriously, with Arctic Fire, Bellshill, Boston Bob, Champagne Fever and Roi Des Francs representing the stable in recent years.
He has had plenty of live ones in the National, Topham and Foxhunters too. On His Own was twice going well before falling, The Midnight Club scared himself at the first and backed-off every fence but completed for an excellent sixth…Boxer Georg was 2nd to Baby Run in the Foxhunters…
What a horse.
I’ll miss those interviews by Cirrus Des Aigles’ box, where his trainer would try to talk while the gelding would do his best to eat her face/hair/hat.
And I don’t think that are too many things in favor of the punters since all the books are always over 100% and not under 100%.
Bookies aren’t charities, RL.
I’m surprised a clever cookie like you doesn’t take the likelihood of non-runners into account before placing a bet. Did you check out the weather forecast (and ground preferences of the field) last night? If so, you might have hesitated before pressing the button on a few of those wagers.
Indeed – and the big grey will look very nicely handicapped if he stays on 147 next season. West wants to go back to France for another race, so that might be wishful thinking though.
It has been a tough season for Maximiser with the tail injury and rush back into action, so I expect he’ll come back even better after a summer off.
I think it’ll be a long hard year from Vazirabad from now onwards. The Arc is a long way from Saturday’s performance, when he scrambled home at his optimum trip ahead of a Cup horse.
That Saint-Cloud race is often quite an uncompetitive affair, but good eggs like Gailo Chop and old Cirrus Des Aigles could turn up there. Maybe a Ballydoyle pothunter like Highland Reel would be considered too.
I wouldn’t fancy Vazirabad against any of those (maybe you would). Even if he ground out a win from those second division horses, first quotes for the Arc would probably underprice him with the three-year-old pecking order still to be revealed. Weight for age, yo.
What is the problem exactly RubyLight?
The ground was verging on good-to-firm when the horses were declared. It is now very soft, but perfectly safe and raceable. The TurfTrax going stick readings are freely available on the Racing Post site if you want to know an exact measurement.
Non-runners are inevitable in this situation: neither the track nor connections have done anything wrong.
It’s still a cracking card.
Maybe there are hidden benefits to going through a tough season of competitive handicap chases. Most of the horses in your little list were in the routine of pinging fences at top gear at Grade 1 tracks in big fields.
Many of the snidey horses who failed had long stretches of time off/hurdling and might have been a bit rusty in their jumping technique. Schooling doesn’t simulate the pressure of a race after all.
GG Cause Of Causes fans, seems like connections are resigned to not getting in and will take their chance in the Irish version.
Those One Man stats mean absolutely nothing.
3 of those 8 Mar/Apr runs were 3m+ at Cheltenham (!) and one was the 1998 Melling Chase where he got killed!
Maybe One Man also went through life with an undiagnosed breathing problem. Since Nicky Richards is probably one of the least proactive and adventurous trainers around (“no, we’ll skip Cheltenham for a nice little race at Ayr”), you’d doubt that his dad ever considered poking around inside the horse’s mouth.
I don’t agree with Steeplechasing very often, but I’m with Joe on the Cue Card breathing op theory. His dam Wicked Craic was about as dour as stayers come – 4m+ no trouble at all. Everything else makes sense too. The contrasting King George finishes pre/post op are the obvious point , but check out the headcarriage too. Cue Card used to be so gawky with his head very proud and a little sideways under pressure. Since he’s perfectly genuine, that old trait was probably a sign of a horse gasping for air.
